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Roger J Smith

July 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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Sunny Sheffield down to 19.4C +4.1C above normal. No measurable rainfall still

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19.7 to the 12th

3.8 above the 61 to 90 average

3.4 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd

Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th

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On 07/07/2018 at 07:54, Weather-history said:

My feeling it's going to surpass 1976 for England and Wales.

June 2018 is already drier than June 1976 and latest Hadley figures says about 1mm up to 4th of July which even when combined with June 2018's figure is still less than what was recorded during June 1976.

1976 rain total trackometer starting from July with June's total

1. 18.7

2. 18.7

3. 19.7

4. 20.2

5. 20.3

6. 20.3

7. 20.3

8. 20.5

9. 21.5

10. 21.5

11. 21.6

12. 25.4

13. 28.3

14. 28.8

15. 39.6

about 17mm up to 11th July 

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Its nothing like 1976 everywhere was brown,and now we have the thunderstorms.

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18 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Its nothing like 1976 everywhere was brown,and now we have the thunderstorms.

Everywhere is brown around here...

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9 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Everywhere is brown around here...

Here too. No rain for 27 days and only 12.6mm so far this summer. I'll have to check the local figures, but I doubt even 1976 managed that.

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Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Its nothing like 1976 everywhere was brown,and now we have the thunderstorms.

Everywhere IS brown around here. Not had more than 1mm since May. Unlikely to get thunderstorms here in the coming days here either.

Edited by Nick L
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Posted (edited)

Everywhere was brown in 1976 its not here far from it,ithen it was.

Flash flooding in places now in the west/SW.

Edited by Snowyowl9

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, reef said:

Here too. No rain for 27 days and only 12.6mm so far this summer. I'll have to check the local figures, but I doubt even 1976 managed that.

Yep, locally, the longest period with no rain in summer 1976 was 24 days between 4th-27th August. Though 1976 from 1st June - 13th July had just 5.0mm compared to 12.6mm so far this year.

Edited by reef
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5 hours ago, Nick L said:

Everywhere IS brown around here. Not had more than 1mm since May. Unlikely to get thunderstorms here in the coming days here either.

That's seriously low.

End of may we had floods,wettest I`ve seen for the end of may thanks to those amazing morning thunderstorms.

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Nearing half way mark, and it already looks likes being one of the warmest July's on record, but I now doubt it will break the record of 2006. CET region will stay very warm for the foreseeable but not exceptionally so, it may be the minima which holds it up, with maxima dropping closer to nearer normal levels. A finish at least 2 degrees above norm looks an almost cert, possibly high 18s finishing mark would be a good bet.

Its been quite a unusual year so far CET wise, Feb and then March being colder than normal, since then a run of very warm months. All down to that SSW I feel..

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Posted (edited)

Our rainless streak of 25 days ended yesterday with 0.3mm, but obviously it won't make a difference, and there's no rain in our forecast.

Edited by cheese
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Sunny Sheffield on 19.3C would have been a bigger drop but for the late afternoon sunshine. Anyway +4C above normal. Finally had some measurable rainfall so 4.4mm 7.7% of the monthly average.

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19.6 to the 13th

3.7 above the 61 to 90 average

3.3 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd

Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th & 13th

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Posted (edited)

Thought I’d look at the warmest two-week spells in the record. The 26th June to 9th July this year is provisionally 19.7°C, which puts 2018 in 20th place. For context, 25th June to 8th July 1976, the hottest two-week spell on record, averaged 22.8°C.

What’s notable, and perhaps not surprising, is that 10 of the top 20 years* have occurred since 1975 (you can probably guess which years since then make the list).

* This assumes that the provisional data for 2018 are correct.

Edited by Relativistic
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This is what has happened in the past after long dry spells in late June and early Julyr:

I looked at daily rainfall for the EWP, and searched out all cases of 5 mm or less total rainfall in any 15-day interval ending in late June (28-30) or July 1-15. Then I looked at rainfall in the 30 days after the dry period ended. Most of these candidate dry intervals had an absolute dry spell within them, and 5 mm in 15 days nets a few borderline cases. The daily data began in 1931.

YEAR ___ Dry interval ____ Total rain next 30 d ___ Heaviest 24h rainfall

1949 ____ 8 Jun - 12 Jul ___ 83 mm ______________ 13.9 mm 01 Aug

1975 ____18 Jun - 6 Jul ____ 63 mm ______________ 8.6 mm 07 July

1976 ____20 Jun - 11 Jul ___ 26 mm ______________ 10.9 mm 15 July

1995 ____ 12 Jun - 1 Jul ___ 39 mm _______________ 6.3 mm 14 July

These years often reverted to drought after this barely normal (or for 1976, 1995 subnormal July and early August rainfall). The 1949 case shows how much of a pattern change is possible. 

 

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On 13 July 2018 at 14:27, Weather-history said:

about 17mm up to 11th July 

About 19mm up to 13th July compare to 28.3mm up to 13th July in 1976.

So I reckon it's the driest first half to summer since possibly 1925. June of that year was the driest in record and although daily reports only go back to 1931, I do know that the first half of July 1925 had well below average rainfall, with most of it falling during the second half. Without daily figures, we can't be 100% sure but it it has been exceptional

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Sunny Sheffield 19.4C +4.0C above normal. Rainfall Unchanged

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19.6 to the 14th

3.7 above the 61 to 90 average

3.3 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd

Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th, 13th & 14th

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38.1mm so far here this summer,that torrential thunderstorm downpour was just west of here the other day typical.

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Meanwhile, we've had 0.5mm with half the summer gone, extremely dry.

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Having seen the latest charts, I think a 19+ CET is definitely on. 

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GFS and Euro look messy and keep the warmest uppers away so possibly may avoid a 19C finish. 

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Posted (edited)

The 06z GFS suggests mean of 17.5 to 18 for the rest of July. That would bring the month down to around 18.8 before adjustments. I could see 40-50 mm of rain from some of the later maps but in the more reliable first ten days not likely to be much over 25% of normal July rainfall by 24th. So most guesses for EWP still have some life in them except probably the highest two. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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The trend is there for another warm up towards the end of the week- and this coming week is still looking warm.  Very good chance of 19C+ before adjustments I think. An outside chance of the first 20C month as well??

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