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Roger J Smith

July 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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I've gone for 2c over the average and I think its going to be to low a guess.

Even 25mm unless we get much of a thunderstorm would be to high.

Forget the day to day models just reading the underlining text from the MO although of course by July 25th it could be 17c and pouring with rain lol..

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19.7 to the 6th

4.2 above the 61 to 90 average

3.6 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd

Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th

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Sunny Sheffield at 19.4C up to the 6th. That's +4.5C above normal. The max temp is an amazing 7.1C above normal while the low is +2.2C above normal. Rainfall zero

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Posted (edited)
On 04/07/2018 at 18:33, Roger J Smith said:

1976 rolling averages exceed all others in July from 2nd until 24th when 2006  took over. 

They are: 

01 _ 22.90___ 06 _ 23.70 ___ 11 _ 21.98 ___ 16 _ 20.97 ___ 21 _ 20.00

02 _ 22.85___ 07 _ 23.54 ___ 12 _ 21.87 ___ 17 _ 20.74 ___ 22 _ 19.80

03 _ 23.43 ___ 08 _ 23.28 ___ 13 _ 21.61 ___ 18 _ 20.57 ___ 23 _ 19.60

04 _ 23.75 ___ 09 _ 22.84 ___ 14 _ 21.37 ___ 19 _ 20.49 ___ 24 _ 19.44 (2006 19.49) (1983 was 19.41)

05 _ 23.78 ___ 10 _ 22.28 ___ 15 _ 21.15 ___ 20 _ 20.26 ___ 25 _ 

The 23.78 average on 5th is probably the highest rolling average other than 1st or 2nd of any month. 

The warmest "month" of 31 days ending in July was actually in 1976 too, 21 June to 21 July = 20.22 C.

I would have to refer to some tables elsewhere but I think there was a warmer 31 day period in 1995 spanning parts of July and August. 

Indeed, the hottest 31-day period on record was 24th July to 23rd August 1995 (20.31C).

If we exclude 1976 and 1995, the hottest 31-day period was 30th June to 30th July 2006 (19.73C), and in less modern times the hottest such period was on 21st July to 20th August 1911 (19.53C). Prior to the 20th century, the record goes to 7th July to 6th August 1868 (19.06C).

Edited by Relativistic
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Sunny Sheffield up to 19.6C +4.7C above normal. Rainfall a fat zero

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19.9 to the 7th

4.2 above the 61 to 90 average

3.8 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd

Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th

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20.1 to the 8th

4.3 above the 61 to 90 average

3.9 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd

Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th

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21.2°C here. A balmy 4.2°C above the Met Office derived average.

1147060850_TemperatureByMonth(2).thumb.png.da089c7f48722d5b701dc2c2346c850d.png

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Posted (edited)

06z GFS indicating that CET may continue in the low 20s to about Sunday 15th then in the following week would drop steadily towards 18 with some days as cool as 15 in the mix, however, last three days of the run (23-25) see a return to warmer conditions, so a likely value of 18 to 18.5 by then. Rather similar to the trend in 1976 without as much pressure on records. 

Also shows a reasonable amount of rainfall in that cooler spell, perhaps enough to bring the month up to 50% or more of normal. Not a lot of cross-model support for any of this however. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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We're on 17.6C (+1.6C) to the 8th here. The easterly winds have remained persistent and meant we haven't had a max above 25.4C all summer.

The warmest day of the year was actually 19th April when we hit 26.1C!

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Posted (edited)

Sunny Sheffield at 19.9C +4.9C above normal. Rainfall nil 21 days now without measurable rain.

Edited by The PIT
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9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

20.1 to the 8th

4.3 above the 61 to 90 average

3.9 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd

Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th

I'm guessing anything below 18C has already been consigned to the bin. 

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4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm guessing anything below 18C has already been consigned to the bin. 

To get below 18C after corrections you basically need the GFS12Z days 7-12 setup to persist most of the month. 

Out of interest Rodger, what are the largest first/second half drops if the first half is above 19C.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

To get below 18C after corrections you basically need the GFS12Z days 7-12 setup to persist most of the month. 

Out of interest Rodger, what are the largest first/second half drops if the first half is above 19C.

 

This is the complete list, in order from largest to smallest drops:

 

1976:  mean 1st-15th = 21.2C;  mean 16th-31st = 16.4C;  drop = 4.8C.

1923:  19.1C;  16.0C;  3.1C.

1826:  19.2C;  16.7C;  2.5C.

1852:  19.6C;  17.9C;  1.8C*.

1983:  19.7C;  19.3C;  0.4C.

1783:  19.0C;  18.7C;  0.3C.

 

* The discrepancy in the drop is due to rounding.

Edited by Relativistic
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20.1 to the 9th

4.3 above the 61 to 90 average

3.9 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd

Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th

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Here's another record to track, number of days in July with mean CET of 20.0 or higher:

So far, in 2018, the provisional count is six days (out of nine), The following is the top ten list, with ties. 

RANK __ YEAR __ 20.0 + ____ 

_ 01 ____ 2006 ___ 15

_ 02 ____ 1983 ___ 13

_ 03 ____ 1995 ___ 10

_t04 ____ 1793 ____ 9

_t04 ____ 1921 ____ 9

_t04 ____ 1976 ____ 9

_t07 ____ 1808 ____ 8

_t07 ____ 1868 ____ 8

_t07 ____ 2001 ____ 8

_t10 ____ 1783 ____ 7

_t10 ____ 1797 ____ 7

_t10 ____ 1852 ____ 7

_t10 ____ 1911 ____ 7

_t10 ____ 1949 ____ 7

_t10 ____ 1989 ____ 7

note: 1826, 1923, 2013 and other years had 6.(t16 rank). 

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Posted (edited)

Sunny Sheffield down to 19.8C +4.7C above average Rainfall still zero. A slight drop possibly the next two days then the heat kicks back and up we go again.

Edited by The PIT
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Rodger, did we have any posters who went around the 18C mark but also went wetter than average. 

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20.0 to the 10th

4.2 above the 61 to 90 average

3.8 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd

Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th

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17 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Rodger, did we have any posters who went around the 18C mark but also went wetter than average. 

(by the way, it's Roger no d ... )

Let It Snow! matches your criteria almost exactly. Weather26 and virtualsphere went cooler, and DeepSnowPlease and Lettucing Gutted went for very warm and wet.

Only five of 53 EWP forecasts were above normal, so I've copied all those down to 48 mm and added their CET forecasts. My own forecast is probably the second closest to your criteria (which will only be good if that's how the month ends up, otherwise a statistical quirk). Syed2878 has near normal rainfall and 17.5 C, I would call that either tied second, or third closest (to 18.0, >70 mm).

 

EWP _ Forecaster __ CET

 

340.0 ... DeepSnowPlease __ 21.2

200.0 ... Lettucing Gutted __ 22.0

112.0 ... weather26 __ 17.0

 89.0 ... virtualsphere __ 16.6

 84.0 ... Let It Snow! __ 18.1

 

 71.1 ... average for 1988-2017

 65.4 ... average for 1981-2010

 

 65.0 ... Syed2878 __ 17.5

 61.0 ... davehsug __ 18.9

 57.5 ... Roger J Smith __ 17.9

 55.0 ... Dr(S)No __ 17.5 ... Bobd29 __ 17.4

 54.0 ... Jeff C __ 18.7

 53.0 ... Daniel* __ 17.1

 50.0 ... Jonboy __ 17.4 ... Relativistic __ 16.3 ... Don __ 18.9

 49.9 ... DKeane3 __ 17.5

 48.0 ... Born From The Void __ 17.8 ... Godber.1 __ 16.8

________________________________________________________

Except for the top two in this list, most of the other CET forecasts above consensus were relatively dry.

Assuming a warm, dry first half from guidance available to forecasters, most people chose between a warm, dry second half or a cooler, wet or wettish second half.

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Sunny Sheffield down to 19.7C +4.5C above normal rainfall still nil

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19.8 to the 11th

4.0 above the 61 to 90 average

3.5 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd

Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th

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Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

19.6C to the 12th... +3.3 (18.3:+1.8)
19.6C to the 13th... +3.3 (19.2 +2.6)
19.6C to the 14th... +3.3 (19.8 +3.0)
19.7C to the 15th... +3.3 (21.1 +4.1)
19.7C to the 16th... +3.3 (20.0 +3.2)
19.7C to the 17th... +3.3 (18.7 +2.4)
19.6C to the 18th... +3.2 (18.0 +1.5)
19.5C to the 19th... +3.1 (18.7 +1.8)
19.5C to the 20th... +3.0 (19.3 +2.1)
19.5C to the 21st... +3.0 (19.3 +2.4)

Remaining warm or very warm for the next 10 days, with little changes in the rolling CET.

CET_11_7_18.thumb.JPG.39b2ab7eb861e618397d6be6de8ada9d.JPG

A little stat to keep an eye on is the record warm coolest day of the month, which is currently 16.3C in 1783. The coolest day so far this month was likely yesterday at 18.1C. Even the coolest day forecast in the next 10 days is just 18C.

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Sunny Sheffield down to 19.6C +4.4C above normal. Another drop tomorrow as today was much cooler. No measurable rain still although a few spots on the window last night so first trace of the month.

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FWIW The 12z GFS  is a lot cooler than its predecessor .

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