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Roger J Smith

July 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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Oops - a bit late :(

Please put me down for 18.5C / 29.3mm.

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 I may as well  have a go even though i’m late. I’l have 20.1°C and 30.5 mm please. 

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I had to increase my y-axis on my graphs to cater for the July average.. 21.3°C .. after one day, of course. 👌

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20.9 to the 2nd

5.3 above the 61 to 90 average

5.0 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd

Current low this month 20.8 to the 1st

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4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

20.9 to the 2nd

5.3 above the 61 to 90 average

5.0 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd

Current low this month 20.8 to the 1st

Must be a fair chance of being above 20C by mid month. 

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What are the CET records to the 10th and 15th for July.

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

What are the CET records to the 10th and 15th for July.


1st

24.6C
2nd 22.8C
3rd 24.6C
4th 24.7C
5th 24C
6th 23.3C
7th 22.6C
8th 21.4C
9th 21.6C
10th 22.1C
11th 22.6C
12th 23.7C
13th 24.5C
14th 24.4C
15th 23.7C

Looks like the 10th and 11th are the best bets with the records relatively low and the forecast for averages close to 22C, on the 18z at least.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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8 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

1st

24.6C
2nd 22.8C
3rd 24.6C
4th 24.7C
5th 24C
6th 23.3C
7th 22.6C
8th 21.4C
9th 21.6C
10th 22.1C
11th 22.6C
12th 23.7C
13th 24.5C
14th 24.4C
15th 23.7C

Looks like the 10th and 11th are the best bets with the records relatively low and the forecast for averages close to 22C, on the 18z at least.

Apologies, i should have said the rolling record to the 10th and 15th rather than daily records. I'm assuming we've never had the CET running at 24C.

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20.1 to the 3rd

4.6 above the 61 to 90 average

4.2 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd

Current low this month 20.1 to the 3rd

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1976 rolling averages exceed all others in July from 2nd until 24th when 2006  took over. 

They are: 

01 _ 22.90___ 06 _ 23.70 ___ 11 _ 21.98 ___ 16 _ 20.97 ___ 21 _ 20.00

02 _ 22.85___ 07 _ 23.54 ___ 12 _ 21.87 ___ 17 _ 20.74 ___ 22 _ 19.80

03 _ 23.43 ___ 08 _ 23.28 ___ 13 _ 21.61 ___ 18 _ 20.57 ___ 23 _ 19.60

04 _ 23.75 ___ 09 _ 22.84 ___ 14 _ 21.37 ___ 19 _ 20.49 ___ 24 _ 19.44 (2006 19.49) (1983 was 19.41)

05 _ 23.78 ___ 10 _ 22.28 ___ 15 _ 21.15 ___ 20 _ 20.26 ___ 25 _ 

The 23.78 average on 5th is probably the highest rolling average other than 1st or 2nd of any month. 

The warmest "month" of 31 days ending in July was actually in 1976 too, 21 June to 21 July = 20.22 C.

I would have to refer to some tables elsewhere but I think there was a warmer 31 day period in 1995 spanning parts of July and August. 

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That's incredible, surpasses even my wildest thoughts. 

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Wouldn't you be annoyed if it was 1976 and you had predicted 20+ and then that slide down to the high 18s showed up right at the bitter end? 

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19.6 to the 4th

4.2 above the 61 to 90 average

3.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd

Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th

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19.7 to the 5th

4.2 above the 61 to 90 average

3.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd

Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th

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According to Gavin we are currently looking at around 19.4C to the 18th albeit i'd note that the models are iffy about some kind of breakdown around day 9. 

I am still relatively happy with my own prediction of 17.6C because i still think those expecting our settled spell to last have questionable medium term support in terms of background signals (yes we are moving to Nino overall but in the short to medium term there are some bearish signals from the tropics as we await the next wave) and so i expect that the second half will be a fair bit poorer than the first (not cool and wet but much more average) which should drag the CET down to the 18C mark. 

I will say however that based on the first half alone i do think this month deserves an 18C+ finish to mark itself as special rather than obscurely warm. 

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3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

19.7 to the 5th

4.2 above the 61 to 90 average

3.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd

Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th

 

4.1 below the 1976 average

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2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

 

4.1 below the 1976 average

Hadley shows 4.2?

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No, your numbers are right, I was just quoting and adding 1976 alone. We are running 4.1 deg below that very hot July 1-5 period. 

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Speaking of (Rodger or Mr Data perhaps)..

What July CET do we need for the hottest May-July period on record.

What July CET do we need for the hottest June-July period on record. 

What July CET to the 15th do we need to put ourselves in second behind 1976 for the second hottest first half of summer.

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Posted (edited)

Yes driest but not hottest 1st half of Summer, none of these 33/34c plus days, no rain here since May, pretty desperate stuff really. I think that we will see a different type of weather in the second half of summer, win the world cup in the final on the 15th and then the weather can do whatever it wants til Christmas!:yahoo::laugh::santa-emoji:

Edited by snowray

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

What July CET do we need for the hottest May-July period on record.

... that is now 2006 (15.97) so to equal that we need (13.2, 16.1, 18.6). So 18.7 will bring us to 16.00. ... 1976 was second at 15.93, to equal that we need 18.5 C.

 

What July CET do we need for the hottest June-July period on record. 

... that is now 1976 (17.85) so to equal that we need (16.1, 19.6). So a 2006-equalling 19.7 will bring a new record of 17.90. ... 2006 was second here at 17.8, to equal that, we need 19.5 C.

 

What July CET to the 15th do we need to put ourselves in second behind 1976 for the second hottest first half of summer.

... okay, this is easier, June 1976 was 17.0, the first 15 days of July 1976 averaged 21.2, so the mean of those 45 days would be 18.4 C. To get to that value, the mean for 1-15 July 2018 needs to be 23.0 so I think that record is probably safe. Second highest such value was 17.9 C for 1826, to equal that we would need 21.5 C. Third place was 17.6 in 1846, to equal that we need 20.6 C. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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14 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The question is starting to become the driest first half of summer since.....?

My feeling it's going to surpass 1976 for England and Wales.

June 2018 is already drier than June 1976 and latest Hadley figures says about 1mm up to 4th of July which even when combined with June 2018's figure is still less than what was recorded during June 1976.

1976 rain total trackometer starting from July with June's total

1. 18.7

2. 18.7

3. 19.7

4. 20.2

5. 20.3

6. 20.3

7. 20.3

8. 20.5

9. 21.5

10. 21.5

11. 21.6

12. 25.4

13. 28.3

14. 28.8

15. 39.6

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5 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

 

Despite how sustained we have been it does like all three records will probably be safe then due to the individual warmth of June 76 and July 06 making up for their less splendid May's. 

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