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Roger J Smith

July 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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19.5 to the 27th

3.6 above the 61 to 90 average

2.9 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.2 to the 20th, 21st & 22nd

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On 19/07/2018 at 12:25, Weather-history said:

Exceptionally dry June-July periods for England and Wales (<60mm)

1800: 35.8

1868: 36.5

1976: 48.8

1921: 39.6

1995: 57.8

1887: 58.9

 

 

About 35mm up to 27th July.

So it will not be the driest June-July period on record. 

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Sunny Sheffield down to 19.7C +3.3C above normal. Rainfall 13.2mm 23.2% of normal.

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19.5 to the 28th

3.5 above the 61 to 90 average

2.9 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.2 to the 20th, 21st & 22nd

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It's possible that July 2018 will break the records for the most daily means, of any July, above or equal to 17°C and above or equal to 18°C. The current records are 28 in 1783 for the 17°C threshold, and 25 in 1983 for the 18°C threshold. Provisionally, 2018 is sitting on 28 and 26, respectively.

July 1783 holds the record for most days above or equal to 16°C (all 31 of them!), which could be equalled, but today (29th) could scupper our chances.

The corresponding records for 19°C (21 in 1983), 20°C (15 in 2006), 21°C (11 in 2006), 22°C (7 in 1976), and 23°C (4 in 1976) are almost certainly safe.

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Exceptionally dry June-July periods for England and Wales (<60mm)

1800: 35.8

1868: 36.5

1921: 39.6

1976: 48.8

1995: 57.8

1887: 58.9

About 45mm up to 28th July

That's before yesterday totals, so it is going to be wetter than June-July 1976

 

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19.4 to the 29th

3.4 above the 61 to 90 average

2.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.2 to the 20th, 21st & 22nd

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A finish of either 19.2C or 19.3C before corrections is most likely (best guess of 19.24C atm). After corrections, about 18.7C to 19.4C is a reasonable range to expect.

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Sunny Sheffield at 19.7C still a return to warmer weather already will mean very little in the way of drops for here. Rainfall 24.4mm 42.8% of avwerage

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Posted (edited)
On 29/07/2018 at 23:20, Relativistic said:

... July 1783 holds the record for most days above or equal to 16°C (all 31 of them!) ...

Thought I'd look at a related record, that for the longest uninterrupted run of daily means above or equal to 16°C. With the last seven days of June and, provisionally, the first 29 days of July all meeting this criterion, our current streak of such days sits at 36. The record-holder is currently 22nd June to 4th August 1783, a streak of 44 days, with the 37-day streak from 17th July to 22nd August 1911 in second place. Then, provisionally, our current streak takes third spot. Below this on the list are the 33-day streaks 22nd June to 24th July 1794 and 4th July to 5th August 2013.

Looking like 2018 could nab first place.

Edited by Relativistic
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8 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Thought I'd look at a related record, that for the longest uninterrupted run of daily means above or equal to 16°C. With the last seven days of June and, provisionally, the first 29 days of July all meeting this criterion, our current streak of such days sits at 36. The record-holder is currently 22nd June to 4th August 1783, a streak of 44 days, with the 37-day streak from 17th July to 22nd August 1911 in second place. Then, provisionally, our current streak takes third spot. Below this on the list are the 33-day streaks 22nd June to 24th July 1794 and 4th July to 5th August 2013.

Looking like 2018 could nab first place.

The 00z GFS has that run continuing on into the high res section of August too.

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19.3 to the 30th

3.3 above the 61 to 90 average

2.6 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.2 to the 20th, 21st & 22nd

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Almost certain finish on 19.3C before corrections, so anything from 18.8C to 19.4C possible thereafter. 

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Edmonton is at 18.6c to the 30th...looks like will be beaten by the UK..just in front on the summer average though as June finished 17.1c here.

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Sunny Sheffield at 19.6C +3.0 above normal Rainfall 25.5mm 44.7% of normal.

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One thing I do know it's going to be the 2nd warmest July ever for us and the 9th driest.

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We have finished on an average of 20.9c here for the month with the average maximum being 27.1c.

Will be a long time before this month is bettered.

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So July didn't drop below 19.1c for the entire month does anyone know when that last happened?

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Would be interesting to know the CET of the period of the 25th June - 26th July. Here in West London I only recorded one day below 27C during that period

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Still pretty amazing - June 16.1 and July 19.1 - a very rare occurrence to get two fantastic summer months on the trot. June 18th warmest since 1659, and July 3rd warmest. Not bad going in 350 years of records. Had the last 4 days not gone pear shaped with the drop in temps and the rainfall, we could have threatened 19.5c or above.

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45 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Still pretty amazing - June 16.1 and July 19.1 - a very rare occurrence to get two fantastic summer months on the trot. June 18th warmest since 1659, and July 3rd warmest. Not bad going in 350 years of records. Had the last 4 days not gone pear shaped with the drop in temps and the rainfall, we could have threatened 19.5c or above.

'Not bad'!?!...your obviously a sun/heat lover? but all rather concerning in my opinion. Wouldn't at all be surprise to see a warm August on top of June/July and don't forget May was very warm too but not expecting August to be as warm anomaly wise as July.

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2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Looks like the CET has been confirmed as 19.1C! A downward corrections from 19.30 to 19.13C.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2018
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

3rd warmest month ever... confirmed as one of the greats. 

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55 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

'Not bad'!?!...your obviously a sun/heat lover? but all rather concerning in my opinion. Wouldn't at all be surprise to see a warm August on top of June/July and don't forget May was very warm too but not expecting August to be as warm anomaly wise as July.

You are of course right - May was also the 18th warmest on record...to go along with June and July.

I like all extremes of weather - be it very hot, cold, windy, stormy etc!

I don't like bog standard westerly based wet and windy fayre that we usually get as default in the UK. August already looks like being well above average barring a complete collapse to cool and unsettled weather for the second half - the first 10 days will be well above average again.

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