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July 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

Roger J Smith
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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
Posted

(a) CET Temperature forecast contest -- averages and extremes

... all years since 1981 are shown for comparison ...

 

25.2 ... 29th, 1948, warmest daily mean

19.7 ... 2006 (warmest July)

19.5 ... 1983 (2nd warmest)

18.8 ... 1783 (3rd warmest)

18.7 ... 1852, 1976 (tied 4th warmest)

18.6 ... 1995 (6th warmest)

18.3 ... 2013 

18.2 ... 1989

18.0 ... 1994 

17.7 ... 1999, 2014 

17.6 ... 2003 

17.3 ... 1991 

17.2 ... 2001 

17.1 ... 2010 

16.9 ... 1984, 1990, 2005, 2016 

16.8 ... 2017

16.7 ... 1997 ... average for 1981-2010 and 1988-2017 and 2001-2017, 1991-2017

16.5 ... 1982, 1996 ... average for 1971-2000

16.2 ... 1985, 1992, 2008

16.1 ... 2009 ... average for 1961-1990, also for 1901-2000 and 1701-1800

16.0 ... 2002 ... average for all years 1659-2017 (15.98)

15.9 ... 1986, 1987, 2015 

15.8 ... 2004 ... average for 1801-1900

15.6 ... average for 1659-1700

15.5 ... 1981, 1998, 2000, 2012 

15.2 ... 1993, 2007, 2011 mean and coldest since 1988 (14.7)

14.7 ... 1988 (tied with 1980 as coldest since 1965, and with four other years as tied 35th coldest)

14.0 ... 1965 CET (tied 11th coldest with 1674, 1685, 1713)

13.9 ... 1919 (10th coldest)

13.8 ... 1725, 1840, 1841 (tied 7th coldest)

13.7 ... 1888, 1922 (tied 5th coldest)

13.6 ... 1879 (4th coldest)

13.5 ... 1695,1802 (tied 2nd coldest)

13.4 ... 1816 (coldest July)

 8.7 ... 20th (1836) coldest daily mean

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your July forecast by end of the day Saturday 30th June without penalty,

or during the first three days of July with increasing time penalties.

=================================================================================

 

(b) Optional EWP contest

Predict the England and Wales mean precipitation in mm for July 2018. The contest uses the NCIC version from the UKMO, which tends to run slightly lower than the Hadley version, although not always (see July 2009 in table below). Here are some averages and extremes as a guide:

182.6 __ wettest (Hadley 1766-2017) in 1828 __ 13 other years wetter than 2009 (1766-1909)

142.1 __ wettest (NCIC 1910-2017) in 2009 __ Hadley 140.7 (for same year in period 1910-2017)

_71.1 __ average for 1988-2017

_65.4 __ average for 1981-2010

_24.1 __ driest (NCIC since 1981) in 1999

_14.3 __ driest (NCIC 1910-2017) in 1911 __ Hadley 15.8 (for same year in period 1910-2017)

__8.2 __ driest (Hadley 1766-2017) in 1825 __ only other year below 1911 was 1800 (9.1 mm)

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines (three hours grace period per day, first late penalty 0300h 1st July)

Maximum score 10.0, late penalties 0.2 per day.

 

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CheesepuffScott Accomplished

CheesepuffScott

Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
Posted

17.5C and 38mm please

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pegg24 Enthusiast

pegg24

Posted
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
Posted

18.0 c 39mm please.

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

18.6c

20.3mm please

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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted

17.9 C and 25.6mm please 

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CheesepuffScott Accomplished

CheesepuffScott

Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
Posted

Can I change?

 

18.1C and 28mm please

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Polar Gael Rising Star

Polar Gael

Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
Posted

19.0C and 27.1mm for me please. 

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JeffC Accomplished

JeffC

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
Posted

18.7C and 54mm please - I keep firing too low which makes the temperature go higher...!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I'll guess at 18.9C for the CET, just a tad warmer than 1976...And, given how extraordinarily 'close' I've been with this month's likely rainfall total, I'll plump for 7 mm, this time! Thanks peeps...

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

17.6C.

 

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Bobd29 Enthusiast

Bobd29

Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
Posted

17.4 and 55mm for me please

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LetItSnow! Experienced

LetItSnow!

Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
Posted (edited)

18.1℃ and 84mm

Edited by LetItSnow!
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DAVID SNOW Veteran

DAVID SNOW

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
Posted (edited)

Craig, I do hope you will post your guess for this month, would miss your usual conservative estimation :)

Edited by DAVID SNOW
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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

Will go for 19.8*C with 20mm rainfall please. A Spanish July. Generally bright and sunny, and very warm to very hot at times with some mighty thunderstorms. 

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

17.7C with around 27mm of rain. Another warm month is likely but perhaps not to the over 18C level.

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

17.3c for me please.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

18.8c cheers :)

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DR(S)NO Community Regular

DR(S)NO

Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
Posted

17.5c and 55mm thank you please

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