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Roger J Smith

July 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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(a) CET Temperature forecast contest -- averages and extremes

... all years since 1981 are shown for comparison ...

 

25.2 ... 29th, 1948, warmest daily mean

19.7 ... 2006 (warmest July)

19.5 ... 1983 (2nd warmest)

18.8 ... 1783 (3rd warmest)

18.7 ... 1852, 1976 (tied 4th warmest)

18.6 ... 1995 (6th warmest)

18.3 ... 2013 

18.2 ... 1989

18.0 ... 1994 

17.7 ... 1999, 2014 

17.6 ... 2003 

17.3 ... 1991 

17.2 ... 2001 

17.1 ... 2010 

16.9 ... 1984, 1990, 2005, 2016 

16.8 ... 2017

16.7 ... 1997 ... average for 1981-2010 and 1988-2017 and 2001-2017, 1991-2017

16.5 ... 1982, 1996 ... average for 1971-2000

16.2 ... 1985, 1992, 2008

16.1 ... 2009 ... average for 1961-1990, also for 1901-2000 and 1701-1800

16.0 ... 2002 ... average for all years 1659-2017 (15.98)

15.9 ... 1986, 1987, 2015 

15.8 ... 2004 ... average for 1801-1900

15.6 ... average for 1659-1700

15.5 ... 1981, 1998, 2000, 2012 

15.2 ... 1993, 2007, 2011 mean and coldest since 1988 (14.7)

14.7 ... 1988 (tied with 1980 as coldest since 1965, and with four other years as tied 35th coldest)

14.0 ... 1965 CET (tied 11th coldest with 1674, 1685, 1713)

13.9 ... 1919 (10th coldest)

13.8 ... 1725, 1840, 1841 (tied 7th coldest)

13.7 ... 1888, 1922 (tied 5th coldest)

13.6 ... 1879 (4th coldest)

13.5 ... 1695,1802 (tied 2nd coldest)

13.4 ... 1816 (coldest July)

 8.7 ... 20th (1836) coldest daily mean

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your July forecast by end of the day Saturday 30th June without penalty,

or during the first three days of July with increasing time penalties.

=================================================================================

 

(b) Optional EWP contest

Predict the England and Wales mean precipitation in mm for July 2018. The contest uses the NCIC version from the UKMO, which tends to run slightly lower than the Hadley version, although not always (see July 2009 in table below). Here are some averages and extremes as a guide:

182.6 __ wettest (Hadley 1766-2017) in 1828 __ 13 other years wetter than 2009 (1766-1909)

142.1 __ wettest (NCIC 1910-2017) in 2009 __ Hadley 140.7 (for same year in period 1910-2017)

_71.1 __ average for 1988-2017

_65.4 __ average for 1981-2010

_24.1 __ driest (NCIC since 1981) in 1999

_14.3 __ driest (NCIC 1910-2017) in 1911 __ Hadley 15.8 (for same year in period 1910-2017)

__8.2 __ driest (Hadley 1766-2017) in 1825 __ only other year below 1911 was 1800 (9.1 mm)

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines (three hours grace period per day, first late penalty 0300h 1st July)

Maximum score 10.0, late penalties 0.2 per day.

 

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17.0C and 112mm please-Surely the jet stream has to end it's holiday sometime (like bang on cue when the summer holidays start.)

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18.0 c 39mm please.

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18.6c

20.3mm please

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19.0C and 27.1mm for me please. 

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18.7C and 54mm please - I keep firing too low which makes the temperature go higher...!

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I'll guess at 18.9C for the CET, just a tad warmer than 1976...And, given how extraordinarily 'close' I've been with this month's likely rainfall total, I'll plump for 7 mm, this time! Thanks peeps...😁

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17.4 and 55mm for me please

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Posted (edited)

18.1℃ and 84mm

Edited by LetItSnow!

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Posted (edited)

Craig, I do hope you will post your guess for this month, would miss your usual conservative estimation :)

Edited by DAVID SNOW
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Will go for 19.8*C with 20mm rainfall please. A Spanish July. Generally bright and sunny, and very warm to very hot at times with some mighty thunderstorms. 

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17.7C with around 27mm of rain. Another warm month is likely but perhaps not to the over 18C level.

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17.3c for me please.

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17.5c and 55mm thank you please

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