By Jacques Steventon
A retired police constable turned climatologist claims snow will fall all over the UK this winter! I talk about this in more detail on my blog here but thought I would put it in general discussion as well
The Met Office have already spoken up and said that he doesn't use a scientific way of forecasting and that winter will be cold, it's winter. Ha.
Anyway he goes onto say that Christmas day will be snowy for the north but no luck for the south. Apparently though the south of UK will see large amounts of snow into the new year and temperatures will drop into 5-. He says he is hardly ever wrong so who knows, we might be in for some luck here in the UK.
I personally can only remember one year that we had amazing snow here in the south of the UK. It was great. Either way fingers crossed.
Hi - I was wondering if someone could help with a question on the best forecasting site, app or API for forecasts i want in the UK. I need approximately 80 forecasts returned for a set of co-ords all at the one time preferably in tabular form. Metcheck displays multiple locations for things like UK seaside but if anyone knows of a way of extracting this info in to a table then this would be very helpful. thanks for any help
By ZONE 51
Hi everyone, have decided to start up a separate topic to look more closely at expected rainfall accumulations in the days ahead. It's a concern that more new floods are possible if not likely through this weekend and into next week, this coming from several large scale weather systems and possible Atlantic storms hitting the UK and ROI over the next 7 days at least, it's likely that some breaks in the rain will occur at times though.
I'm not going to hide the fact that severe floods in new areas are possibly on the way I say possibly even if I think likely, which I do.
Below I've put on a rain alert map created from precipitation data models of which the one's I have access, please use my map as a general guide of where the heaviest rain could be accumulated over the next 48hrs or so, please do allow for some small adjustments do not take the map as 100 percent set in stone, usually the expected accumulations of rainfall may be more or less in any one area and exact locations can change, I might not be able to update map.
(Map can be shared where you like)
Map expires MON 0300hrs - January 4
W = on the map this means that I am watching for upgrades of 30mm or more.
Light yellow + W =30mm - rainfall may get accumulated up to 30mm but may upgrade to 40mm for a level 1 so is under a watch zone.
Yellow = 40mm - 50mm accm rain
Orange = 50mm - 80mm accm rain
Red = 80mm - 100mm accm rain
Dark red = 100+ accm rain.
Many areas seeing rain this heavy at times some very heavy and prolonged, expect 10mm-25mm generally.
Some of the largest rainfalls likely to occur over higher ground.
For the winds associated with these weather systems/storms likely gale or severe gale at times please see other threads and warnings.
Please post anything related to rainfall forecasting, model ppn data, alerts and warnings, your own rain maps and forecasts.
By Jo Farrow
I've just written a blog hopefully explaining more about how the Met Office create their weather warnings and how the 3 levels now include likelihood of severe weather and the possible impacts.
Did you know this about the impacts?
Is this the right way to go for the public?
With this explanation do you feel the warnings are now more helpful to you?
The Matrix is now a key part of the warning, but is there anyway to show high impact, lower likelihood
or medium likelihood of low impact event from just the 3 colours?
By ZONE 51
The general situation now is we have a deep low pressure on the scene, NAE surface pressure:
A southwesterly flow that is unstable is bringing frequent lines of showers (call them streamers if you like) these are very heavy downpours some thundery and some could contain hail, also very windy.
I want to throw in the lifted index from GFS the yellow showing the unstable airmass moving into the SW:
There has recently been thunderstorms in the SW. These unstable conditions spreading more over the BI today, I'm showing the LI charts as this will enhance the downpours this morning increasing the potential for thunderstorms and so more intense rainfall. please see the convective thread for more on the thunder.
Currently there are some intense lines of thundery downpours of rain as seen on the latest radar, these are affecting much of England (particularly SW) and parts of S-Wales too.
Lines of precipitation, especially the SE and it's here where the most prolonged showers could affect today.
The model indicates some potentially disruptive rainfall over parts of the south, with IOW, Hampshire, Sussex and Kent also Surrey and London areas potentially severe weather today, and also the next day needs watching closely too. For Western Scotland, ppn models indicating high ppn amounts here today.
This is for Wednesday 8th ^^
NAE accumulation 00z +48:
(just updated the map to inclu SW for the deeper oranges after radar review)
My map is based on latest radar and ppn accm charts for today and tomorrow.
(Please note that I have put deeper orange over Southern areas due to radar review and downpours and thunderstorms currently active in places and expected to continue today, more prolonged rainfall at times over the next 48hrs over Southern UK) Also note that high ppn is shown to affect Western Scotland over the next 36-48hrs too)
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