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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards


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Hail from the storm in York. Wouldn't want that falling on your head!

It was worth all the effort ?

Explosive convection to my west in Norwich. I can see it growing, its immense! Not seen anything like it before except on Storm Chasers on the TV

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I'd be interested to see what people think of these shots - small funnel or not? They're of a cell that passed over this evening that appeared to show rotation - part of the base could be seen slowly spinning with swirls visible and protruding centre. A lowering then appeared from that region. After a while this shrunk and the spinning seemed to shift over. It had a very dark, low, scruffy cloud base and appeared to produce some intense rainfall from radar but not over me. No lightning.

rotation_1b.thumb.png.aa02826803de92b7a851830f14049090.pngInitial rotation

rotation_3a.thumb.png.585170eeeb4685094f7553a344cb96a5.pngCloud lowering

rotation_4a.thumb.png.c009b38a794360082e61f026c5acde76.pngRotation centre shifts

 

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59 minutes ago, Kirsty Wood said:

If I’m in castleford, West Yorkshire and this is to my west, where would it be? 

BB4AD2C9-F81B-45B2-A9E9-BC756D56855B.jpeg

well if you keep going you get to this lovely place called Lancashire. You are allowed to move but your parents wont be happy.

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Rain will push into some eastern areas later tonight and tomorrow morning. Then widespread thunderstorms for Scotland northern Ireland and northern England also east anglia seeing a few with a fair amount of rain there.

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15 minutes ago, poseidon said:

I'd be interested to see what people think of these shots - small funnel or not? They're of a cell that passed over this evening that appeared to show rotation - part of the base could be seen slowly spinning with swirls visible and protruding centre. A lowering then appeared from that region. After a while this shrunk and the spinning seemed to shift over. It had a very dark, low, scruffy cloud base and appeared to produce some intense rainfall from radar but not over me. No lightning.

rotation_1b.thumb.png.aa02826803de92b7a851830f14049090.pngInitial rotation

rotation_3a.thumb.png.585170eeeb4685094f7553a344cb96a5.pngCloud lowering

rotation_4a.thumb.png.c009b38a794360082e61f026c5acde76.pngRotation centre shifts

 

This looks very much like some good rotation and clearly a funnel. It can actually be quite hard to see the funnel shape from near underneath the rotation. Don't always need the lightning to get some sort of rotation. 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 02 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 03 Jun 2018

ISSUED 21:27 UTC Fri 01 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

Scattered, and in places, widespread thunderstorms are expected across northern Britain and Ireland on Saturday...

 
A very weak synoptic pattern will continue to be present over the British Isles bringing light winds and a warm, humid surface airmass. Showers will develop in response to surface heating (temps >19C) during late morning and into the afternoon across much of northern and eastern England, Scotland and Ireland. SBCAPE values around and in excess of 1,000 J/kg will generate thunderstorms, which will likely be particularly widespread across southern Scotland and north-central Ireland, producing frequent lightning. Like previous days, shear values will be virtually non-existant, therefore showers will pulse variety and updrafts will be fairly short lived. The primary threat will be flash flooding with PWAT values around 30mm in Scotland and Ireland, and into the mid-30s mm across E England and E Anglia. This will lead to 1-2 hour rainfall totals once again in excess of 50mm in places. Thunderstorms in the east will likely develop along weak convergence boundaries and drift slowly eastwards, while the steering flow in Scotland and Ireland will take the showers slowly westwards once they develop
 
 
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2 hours ago, Neglectedchicken said:

Yeah thanks

It is quite long and you may have to zoom in it is based on my interpretation of what I think will be happening it is not necessarily going to be spot on but I think I will be close.one sec

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 I went to fill up the car last night , after claiming it was game over here, I heard a few distant rumbles over some fells locally known as winter hill, at least it seemed to coming from that way ,  two or three distant rumbles does not get me out of the NSC though    

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Everything slightly further east on the GFS this morning. Just noticed a line of cells go up too the south of me but no sferics as yet. Could be the ultimate tease day. Local forecast which is normally pretty good on these things has zero storms for the day removing them from yesterdays earlier forecast. Just light rain (morning) or light showers (afternoon). One day it'll be wrong.

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