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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards


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2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I don’t understand these storms at all now.

Think I’ve lost the will to be a U.K. storm chaser any more.

If it can be this hot and humid and storms just refuse to happen over us then i’m at a complete loss understanding what conditions i’m supposed to be looking out for.

?

Not to sound condescending but I think you need to read up online or from a book about what causes thunderstorms in given areas, it is not down to the pretty colours you see on charts and you have to include a lot of factors when looking at where storms will be likely.

Texas and Oklahoma in the States have had Cape Value and Heat of over 100f most of the last 3 months but have had hardly any noteworthy storms, but places further north which are cooler (relatively) and are closer to Upper Forcing and surface features have been getting hammered with storms with lower Cape but higher Shear environments.

You really will find it beneficial to read up on these things and wont get so wound up - Just my twopenceworth

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Hail from the storm in York. Wouldn't want that falling on your head!

It was worth all the effort ?

Explosive convection to my west in Norwich. I can see it growing, its immense! Not seen anything like it before except on Storm Chasers on the TV

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9 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Not to sound condescending but I think you need to read up online or from a book about what causes thunderstorms in given areas, it is not down to the pretty colours you see on charts and you have to include a lot of factors when looking at where storms will be likely.

Texas and Oklahoma in the States have had Cape Value and Heat of over 100f most of the last 3 months but have had hardly any noteworthy storms, but places further north which are cooler (relatively) and are closer to Upper Forcing and surface features have been getting hammered with storms with lower Cape but higher Shear environments.

You really will find it beneficial to read up on these things and wont get so wound up - Just my twopenceworth

WTF do you know about storms!?

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Dont forget tonight is the Luna eclipse, some might be so unlucky they get crud from a near by storm that blocks the Moon and no storm.. Can you imagine ?

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2 minutes ago, Crashlanding said:

WTF do you know about storms!?

Nowt ? 

But I learned you should not chase a Warm Front over a LP and never Chase in North Dakota as long as you live.

Are you out today ? Might actually give this a crack up in Cambs/Lincs area today

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26 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Not to sound condescending but I think you need to read up online or from a book about what causes thunderstorms in given areas, it is not down to the pretty colours you see on charts and you have to include a lot of factors when looking at where storms will be likely.

Texas and Oklahoma in the States have had Cape Value and Heat of over 100f most of the last 3 months but have had hardly any noteworthy storms, but places further north which are cooler (relatively) and are closer to Upper Forcing and surface features have been getting hammered with storms with lower Cape but higher Shear environments.

You really will find it beneficial to read up on these things and wont get so wound up - Just my twopenceworth

Lol - yes somewhat condescending

i understand Synoptics having been interested in storms for years, but there’s something about our area that seems to inhibit deep convection - save for about 1 event a year.

i’m having A moan of course. Last night great opportunity for great storms once again wasted. I’m going to stick to the pretty colours of Convective Weather, Tony Gilbert and Estofex solely from now on - and even then ignore slight zones completely for our neck of the woods.

UKWW in particular have a handle on the seemingly thousands of variables which make or break Surrey storms - so I might even just stick with them. Just watched BBC forecast and - despite using a somewhat muted palette on their chart - they seem to be suggesting storms toward the west later today, but I still don’t buy it.

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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I'm not hugely knowledgeable but I get really hacked off with people chucking their toys out of the pram because their yellow warning didn't deliver be it snow or storm. The warnings quite clearly talk about a risk. They're not a guarantee.  Storms are almost invariably down to nowcasting in a given area, and that, to me, is part of the fun. If they deliver, great, but getting upset because they didn't come off is futile.

 

This isn't a pop at any individual poster today,btw.  Its a general observation. At least I haven't seen " It's a bust" today.  Not yet any way 

Edited by Frosty hollows
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18 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Nowt ? 

But I learned you should not chase a Warm Front over a LP and never Chase in North Dakota as long as you live.

Are you out today ? Might actually give this a crack up in Cambs/Lincs area today

We know its NOWT! 

Or drive through a Tornado warned storm in Canada with no data!

tempted! just need to see where and when!

 

Gee

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We are unfortunately placed for Surface based storms I agree, there simply is not the land track for Essex and Surrey in our locales. You have to get very lucky with a NE Moving storm to form for you just inland from the Hampshire Coast or for me north of Brighton. Otherwise its MU Cape Storms from France which deliver or get annoyed by Surface based Supercells raging in NW France that lose intensity as they encounter the English Channel.

I would take a punt on a possible MCS This evening for our area so all is not lost..................yet

Other than That East Cambs, Norfolk, Suffolk and Lincs looks primed if you can drive just a little bit north today.

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Morning

Not a sausage in Cleethorpes but very humid. Storm to the east of me been rumbling away in the Nth Sea since about 5am with the dark clouds sat tantalizingly offshore , storm to the NW peppered Killingholme,  Barton before clearing off to the Nth Bank of the Humber!!.

Sods law I guess but hey ho. 

Regards

Glenn

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21 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

I'm not hugely knowledgeable but I get really hacked off with people chucking their toys out of the pram because their yellow warning didn't deliver be it snow or storm. The warnings quite clearly talk about a risk. They're not a guarantee.  Storms are almost invariably down to nowcasting in a given area, and that, to me, is part of the fun. If they deliver, great, but getting upset because they didn't come off is futile.

 

This isn't a pop at any individual poster today,btw.  Its a general observation. At least I haven't seen " It's a bust" today.  Not yet any way 

Hehe I said the B word yesterday I think...

if I didn’t...

 

...

 

 

BUST!! ?

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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I'm not even annoyed about the lack of activity around these parts as the forecasts got it pretty accurate, cells passed over here but didn't kick off until they were much further north-northeast which looks about right. The only shame is that it's still really hot and sticky here already, wouldn't mind some relief from that.

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Saw some acas float by earlier, but it’s practically cloudless in south London now with some pretty cumulus here and there.

27° and not feeling as close as it was yesterday.

Despite chances for some sort of conveyor-style system in central southern areas later on I’m gonna try and get over to EA later and see if I can get in on the action.

Thing is I used all my chase points last night so need to see if the O/H doesn’t mind another evening in on her own tonight... ? ? 

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10 minutes ago, OddSpot said:

Directly above us but no lightning and the thunder, while fairly constant aint loud

Hammering it down though

Had a good view of that cell on the way to Matlock, again no visible lightning though 

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57 minutes ago, Crashlanding said:

WTF do you know about storms!?

Er. What doesnt Paul know about storms ? Get rid of the language too.

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Just now, Biggin said:

Er. What doesnt Paul know about storms ? Get rid of the language too.

Woooosh. If you see Pauls reply I think it was a bit of sarcasm from Crashlanding

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10 minutes ago, OddSpot said:

Woooosh. If you see Pauls reply I think it was a bit of sarcasm from Crashlanding

Good, no need for the WTF then. I am sure you will agree.

Edited by Biggin
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