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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

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22 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Well if the met text forecasts are to be believed and there will be no storms anywhere except for the Far East during the next 48 hours. I have seen them get it very wrong before though. I think I will put my trust in the likes of Nick F, Dan and Tony G. 

Yep - I think you are spot on. Then about 2 weeks until the next potential which again will be north and east or far far west.

Problem I think is that the slight area is so wide ppl read into it that there will be action near them - but I think the forecasters are covering the chance of a couple of rogue cells popping up - so unless you’re in the warning box (or planning to head that way) it’s not worth expecting anything at all - in my opinion.

Last night it just didn’t feel thundery enough for widespread storms in our area. iOW did ok but that didn’t last too long. Early evening I really thought we were onto something, everything was on our side, then the skies cleared and the temperature ‘fell’ to 18/20° and the elevated cloud just wasn’t there anymore.

Wish I know what was draining the power from the atmosphere round here, this heat is getting ridiculous. Anywhere else and it would go bang!

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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51 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Well if the met text forecasts are to be believed and there will be no storms anywhere except for the Far East during the next 48 hours. I have seen them get it very wrong before though. I think I will put my trust in the likes of Nick F, Dan and Tony G. 

As a matter of interest why do you think the METO get it wrong considering the amount of info and expertise available?

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 Wow look at the speed shear expected near  the  primary cold-front later, 22 m/s. 

 Discounting the mad MO text forecasts and going by the various forecast on here and the WRF; looks to be three chances for this region from afternoon.  Chance of surface based airmass storms, then the primary cold-front and later the secondary cold-front. I could see chances 1 and 2 combining into a conveyor-belt of cells  and transitioning into organised thundery rain. 

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At last rain here and a good thunderstorm.
Small hail for a few minutes too.

B.  :)

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8 minutes ago, knocker said:

As a matter of interest why do you think the METO get it wrong considering the amount of info and expertise available?

 Generally they’re okay as a guide but it is still the case that I have seen them go spectacularly wrong before. They just don’t seem right for today given other forecasts and obviously in my heart I’m hoping they are wrong so I’m biased lol.  If they get it right  I will hold my hands up. 

Edited by Chris.R

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Constant thunder lightning torrential rain since around 1am newmarket suffolk looks to have been bang in the centre of the thin ppn band all night barely slept because of the noise

Screenshot_20180727-065505.jpg

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That band looks like it'll sail right past us in Norwich - it did look we might *just* get clipped by it at one point because of its very slight NNE track, but alas, no such luck. I can even see the clouds from my bus stop.

Maybe we might have some better luck later.

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Nice structure to this storm - is it showing signs of supercell structure looking at that radar? Either way we’ve had a pelting in Ely - constant thunder and very heavy precipitation 

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Looks like most of central England will miss out later and here in west London last night and this morning was our best chance.. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Gonzolio Martinez said:

That band looks like it'll sail right past us in Norwich - it did look we might *just* get clipped by it at one point because of its very slight NNE track, but alas, no such luck. I can even see the clouds from my bus stop.

Maybe we might have some better luck later.

Yep same here (I'm about 10 miles SW of your bus stop ?

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Constant rolling thunder here.  Lightning not really observed so must be quite elevated.  Impressive and much needed rain too.

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Morning all. :)

Something appears to be trying to brew up over towards the Warrington/Manchester area. I don’t know if I’ll see anything storm wise today... But at the moment, there’s hope. ?️⛈️:good:

As normal, good luck to everyone with this today. 

... And if anyone is wondering about the orange band across the sun, it’s smoke from a wildfire that’s currently raging on Llantysilio Mountain near Llangollen. 

 

And I’ve no idea why the size of the text font has changed size? Lol

 

E0E1938C-3B58-4A6D-BD92-79ED096EA33F.jpeg

Edited by Dangerous55019
Text font size changes
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rapid delvelopment just south of my location we may get somthing after all 

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Heavy rain here but all lightning activity is way east

*Edit* thunder now heard 

Edited by ChezWeather

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Once again I watch storm clouds pass by to the east of us. Not in firing line today so it looks like this heatwave will go meekly out.

 

LOL as I post this some new showers build up to the south of us so will the shield shred them as normal. If it doesn't should be a bullseye. Could be because I've got the washing on. :)

Edited by The PIT

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That heavy shower passes over us then decides to start producing some lightning as it goes into the distance towards Sheff......typical

Maybe a bit more if a chance with the what is approaching from the south though in the next 15-20 minutes

Edit:

Thunder approaching, but not much lightning visible. Up in the clouds

Edited by OddSpot

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3 minutes ago, OddSpot said:

That heavy shower passes over us then decides to start producing some lightning as it goes into the distance towards Sheff......typical

Maybe a bit more if a chance with the what is approaching from the south though in the next 15-20 minutes

Hey normally you have all storms and gives the left overs so it's long overdue you sent us. Yes Thundering here but no rain.

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Ha ha PIT ?

This one has more to it, but no visible lightning as such

Edited by OddSpot

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Just now, OddSpot said:

Ha ha PIT ?

This one has more to it, but no visible lightning as such

Going pass just to the east of the me the following ones will track further to the east unless they expand a lot.

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Fairly persistant thunder here, no lightning visible at all though 

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Seems to be a line of showers developing quite rapidly in line with us

Constant thunder outside but not very loud and no flashes. It's all high up it seems

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Seen one bright bolt of lightning, otherwise high up flashes. Getting rumbles to the NE and south at the moment. As OddSpot says, a line is developing - all heading north.

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41 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Looks like most of central England will miss out later and here in west London last night and this morning was our best chance.. 

 

As is the norm ☹️

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