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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
6 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Will these build up to tonight's storms or will cells develop like this afternoon? 

image.thumb.png.a9eb197a77884656371a1c9d4dc78867.png

Tonight is elevated potential, so I don’t think they will behave in quite the same way.

Chances are it'll probably be a quite sudden destabilisation of the airmass over quite a wide area of the central south and then this moving quite slowly but steadily NEwards towards the Wash.

Can’t discount Hants, the Sussex sisters and Kent seeing a bit of the action, too...

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Hello all, glad to see folk oop north enjoying some activity, looks nice on both radar and blitzortung.

Got my hopes for later muted given so much uncertainty but what is certain is it’s very very warm, humidity on the up and pretty much every outlet thinking storms are a given...some showing central spine (say M1ish) with others a bit more widespread and others less so. Either way MUCAPE modelling suggests potential overnight and tomorrow anywhere east of say the Birmingham area. 

Seems a cast iron case of now casting. Models aren’t going to help us a huge deal I’d suggest. 

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7 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Tonight is elevated potential, so I don’t think they will behave in quite the same way.

Chances are it'll probably be a quite sudden destabilisation of the airmass over quite a wide area of the central south and then this moving quite slowly but steadily NEwards towards the Wash.

Can’t discount Hants, the Sussex sisters and Kent seeing a bit of the action, too...

Yep I think this will be like a night back last year were we in south all of us watching storms leave the north of France and die over the channel.. Hours and hours it went on.. Then literally right over the top of Surrey the south coast it went from no storms to numerous storms within 15 mins.. 

Its just when.. And where 

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
32 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

What the chances that Estofex will give the U.K. a level 1 somewhere for tomo?

Looking at what Tony is suggesting over on UKWW tomorrow has even better parameters in place for eastern England and suggests ‘low-end supercells’ could be a result

Obvs its dependant on factors still in play but his forecasts are regularly pretty spot-on  

What's a "low end supercell" ? Does it shop at Poundland? 

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Yep I think this will be like a night back last year were we in south all of us watching storms leave the north of France and die over the channel.. Hours and hours it went on.. Then literally right over the top of Surrey the south coast it went from no storms to numerous storms within 15 mins.. 

Its just when.. And where 

Yup remember it well.

was cloudy all evening (it’s not now though) then 20 mins after sunset BOOM, storms kicked off a few miles away from me in the channel, and got pretty much a direct hit, and non stop lightning and rain for 3 hours.

 

cant see that happening tonight though, the sky doesn’t look threatening. But time will tell.

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Posted
  • Location: Braintree, Essex. 150 feet (46 m) above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: T/Storms, Snow, Extreme Rain, Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Braintree, Essex. 150 feet (46 m) above sea level

Not for much longer! Re Poundland 

Edited by scotteboi
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Yep I think this will be like a night back last year were we in south all of us watching storms leave the north of France and die over the channel.. Hours and hours it went on.. Then literally right over the top of Surrey the south coast it went from no storms to numerous storms within 15 mins.. 

Its just when.. And where 

Hopefully we'll get some good lightning displays, would love to see some fork lightning 

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Posted
  • Location: Earley, Reading
  • Location: Earley, Reading

It all seems so calm, usually there is something on the northern coast of France to boost optimism, but it's gone very calm there too.

Though I will stand corrected if that band of rain from Jersey comes to life anytime soon.

Edited by Robert Lewis
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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
8 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

What's a "low end supercell" ? Does it shop at Poundland? 

Tends to loiter near Greggs until about 5pm, then usually found on that small weird table near the toilets in the local Weatherspoons, going on and on about ‘the good old days back in Kansas’

 

Edit: later on heads home and kicks over some wheelie bins on the way

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

It’s almost 9pm and still 30C outside. Sat here dodging flies and wasps enjoying the Mediterranean feel (now the sun has dropped). Fingers crossed for later - echo @Surrey recollections - happened all too often - nothing then bang! Although the sky at the moment giving no indication whatsoever of storm potential - looks deceptively calm and very well capped (barrel loaded haha) 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Just now, Robert Lewis said:

Another Bournemouth 3rd July 2015 would be nice, was crazy to be under that one. 

If its the same storm I'm thinking of I remember one of them around that time travelling as far as Lincolnshire, we had 2 hours of elevated lightning then we got the full lot in the early hours 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

image.thumb.png.21bd5db85764ce196bf3cc5438c57104.pngHere is my totally unbiased, professional opinion on tonight's events.

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9 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Yup remember it well.

was cloudy all evening (it’s not now though) then 20 mins after sunset BOOM, storms kicked off a few miles away from me in the channel, and got pretty much a direct hit, and non stop lightning and rain for 3 hours.

 

cant see that happening tonight though, the sky doesn’t look threatening. But time will tell.

That's the night! Such a crazy night... I think it went from 1-2am to about 6am here 

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
3 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

If its the same storm I'm thinking of I remember one of them around that time travelling as far as Lincolnshire, we had 2 hours of elevated lightning then we got the full lot in the early hours 

Have a video of it as it went up over Essex. I am certain at that point it was a supercell - best night time storm I’ve seen from a distance. Totally... amazing

 

video isn’t great - shouldn’t have added the music - but you get the idea. Went on for hours

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Have a video of it as it went up over Essex. I am certain at that point it was a supercell - best night time storm I’ve seen from a distance. Totally... amazing

The last big proper storm we had here, ever since we've been under a storm shield lol, hoping tonight and tomorrow will change that

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
1 minute ago, Surrey said:

That's the night! Such a crazy night... I think it went from 1-2am to about 6am here 

Yeah! By far one of the best storms I’ll witness.

went from 11-2 here.

mental.

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk

Forget the 3rd/4th July 2015, it was pathetic here. But a repeat of the storm train on 16th/17th when I only had to drive a mile or so for the full effect and zero rainfall to spoil the view....yes please!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Earley, Reading
  • Location: Earley, Reading
1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:

If its the same storm I'm thinking of I remember one of them around that time travelling as far as Lincolnshire, we had 2 hours of elevated lightning then we got the full lot in the early hours 

 Yes I believe that storm did cover some serious miles after coming to life right on the Bournemouth coastline, there was some activity in the channel that started around 10pm, it was all ticking along then between 11:30/midnight or so, then one cell went for land, the amount of lightning accelerated incredibly and then it went right over Bournemouth and carried on NNE from memory. Many called it a supercell around the time. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
1 minute ago, Robert Lewis said:

 Yes I believe that storm did cover some serious miles after coming to life right on the Bournemouth coastline, there was some activity in the channel that started around 10pm, it was all ticking along then between 11:30/midnight or so, then one cell went for land, the amount of lightning accelerated incredibly and then it went right over Bournemouth and carried on NNE from memory. Many called it a supercell around the time. 

I think convective weathers forecast hinted a possible super-cell, I'm sure we'll find out if anything develops over the next few hours. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 27 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 28 Jul 2018

ISSUED 20:03 UTC Thu 26 Jul 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

 

... FRIDAY MORNING ...

Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing on Friday morning along the ThetaE plume from Cen S England, through eastern England to perhaps the Northern Isles. These should continue to drift north along the same corridor through the day, but probably with some reasonable gaps developing as forcing aloft and instability weakens temporarily in the wake of each thunderstorm cluster.

 
... FRIDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING ...
Strong surface heating with temperatures in the mid 30s Celsius and dewpoints of 18-20C will create a very unstable environment by the afternoon, with CAPE values in excess of 1,500 J/kg possible. This combined with elements of low-level convergence and stronger upper forcing arriving, as a shortwave drifts northwards on the forward side of an approaching upper trough, should provide the trigger for scattered surface-based thunderstorms, particularly during the late afternoon and into the evening hours. There is also some signal for orographic forcing during the evening hours to allow a few thunderstorms to develop over the northern Pennines, drifting north into southern Scotland, hence the inclusion of a small MDT.
 
Given the magnitude of instability, strongly-sheared profiles and dry intrusion in the mid levels, a supercell or two will be possible capable of producing large hail over 3cm in diameter along with damaging outflow winds and very frequent lightning. Some surface water flooding could occur in a few places. As such, a SVR has been issued to cover the risk of large hail, damaging winds and torrential downpours.
 
... FRIDAY NIGHT ...
On Friday evening and night, increased forcing aloft will destabilise the instability plume more widely, with an increasing coverage of elevated thunderstorms likely to erupt over eastern England, gradually clearing to the east - perhaps bending back westwards over parts of northern Scotland and the Northern Isles. A MDT and HIGH have been issued to cover this potential combined with earlier surface-based storms - though should model guidance trend eastwards, the focus will naturally shift eastwards to the North Sea instead, and the HIGH may need to be removed / MDT trimmed.
 
... SW ENGLAND / S + W WALES / CELTIC SEA / S IRELAND ...
The secondary cold front will be subject to strong forcing as a sharp upper trough over-runs it during Friday night. Several hundred J/kg CAPE will be present, with some lightning activity and gusty winds possible as the cold front surges eastwards. A SLGT has been introduced to cover this potential.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-27

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

So much instability up there at the moment, and feels absolutely tropical. Lots of turkey towers heading up racing N/NE. A good sign for elevated activity later on. 

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