Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

[Another Kent clipper]

I'm actually looking forward to a good rain shower.  I'm not expecting a single spheric this evening but I don't care. Just wanna get rained on with that not rained for ages amazing smell on the ground

[philglossop]

Radar looking nasty across Dartmoor at the moment with some more South Molton way.....

[Chris.R]

 The text forecast for tomorrow sounds very nice; yet the warning has gone. 

Friday:

Heavy showers will develop through the morning and during the afternoon, with thunderstorms at times. Away from the showers there will be some warm sunny spells. Maximum temperature 25 °C.

 

[ancientsolar]

awkward!! ~ i'm going to Cardiff tonight, it's so humid in Blackwood.. Coat or no coat.. is the question. ~ is this going to be a case of.. prepare for huge downpours.. or will they die out before they the showers move too far East ?

Perhaps it's more a case of what happened in South Molton , seems like a more likely scenario currently.

Edited July 12, 2018 by ancientsolar

[philglossop]

Absolutely black as the ace of spades looking towards North Plymouth and South Dartmoor.Its made the City Centre where I’m working unbelievably hot and humid

[Dangerous55019]

Just heading out to take the hound out for his evening walkies, and I couldn’t help but notice how juicy the sky is looking to the North/North East of me. 

Looks much more promising than it did an hour or so ago... Or maybe it’s because the crud has cleared?

 

[Dangerous55019]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

 The text forecast for tomorrow sounds very nice; yet the warning has gone. 

Friday:

Heavy showers will develop through the morning and during the afternoon, with thunderstorms at times. Away from the showers there will be some warm sunny spells. Maximum temperature 25 °C.

 

50/50? I’d take that @Chris.R 

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2018-07-12 21:58:52
Valid: 13/07/2018 00z to 14/07/2018 00z

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRIDAY 13TH JULY 2018

Synopsis

Upper flow will be weakly cyclonic westerly / southwesterly across Britain on Friday, which combined with a slack surface pressure pattern favouring surface breeze convergence and surface heating, will support the development of heavy and locally thundery downpours across parts of England and Wales.

... WALES, S ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, N ENGLAND ...

Higher temperatures, deeper moisture and weaker heights / more cyclonic flow aloft will allow a more readily unstable airmass to surface heating across the above areas on Friday which will in turn support a more widespread risk of heavy showers and thunderstorm risk. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop widely across the above areas in the afternoon, as peak heating yields 400-800 j/kg CAPE, though greatest risk of storms may become focused along breeze convergence boundaries developing inland as surface pressure falls overland with surface heating. Despite weak vertical shear, any storms will tend to be slow-moving given weak winds aloft, so there is a risk localised flash-flooding, exacerbated by very dry ground preventing absorption. Also sudden torrential downpours will produce treacherous driving conditions. Hail and frequent lightning may also accompany storms. Any storms will tend to fade after dark.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Edited July 12, 2018 by Nick F

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 13 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 14 Jul 2018

ISSUED 21:16 UTC Thu 12 Jul 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

A reservoir of relatively cool air aloft, associated with an old shortwave, continues to linger over England and Wales during Friday, slowly clearing to the east. Similar to Thursday, forecast profiles look rather moist but with less in the way of warm noses aloft. Diurnal heating should help yield 400-800 J/kg CAPE, which combined with low-level convergence (and some aspects of orographic forcing) will enable the development of well-scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.

Speed shear is once again rather weak, although there are some elements of directional shear - either way, pulse-type convection is expected with any individual shower/thunderstorm lasting less than an hour. Cloud depth should be greater than on Thursday, with a better chance of some sporadic lightning, though once again profiles do look rather saturated which would serve to limit buoyancy and reduce lightning potential.

 

A low-end SLGT has been issued where lightning is more likely to occur. Main threats will be local surface water issues, especially considering existing very dry ground with dust/dirt deposits on roads likely to make surfaces rather slippery when wet

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-13

[The PIT]

Not looking good for us today as cloud will probably prevent the temperature getting high enough for anything to happen

Edited July 13, 2018 by The PIT

[Dangerous55019]

Morning all 
Well, there is a risk of storms today, and as i always I wish everyone good luck with this 
Personally, I'm in a half reasonable location for something to develop, but we've got an awful lot of grey crud about at the moment... Hopefully this will burn off soon, and allow the sun to do its job and allow these storms to brew up. 

[Frosty hollows]

Currently it's cool with a lot of crud.  If the cloud breaks and the sun comes out, it could be game on

[Zak M]

Likely to see some storms in the distance today. I can't wait!

[Sparkiee storm]

Thought id post the Estofex Forecast, as there is some interest for the spine of the country. 

[matty40s]

High level crud has now burnt off and temperatures shooting up bear Daventry.

[Polar Maritime]

Moderate shower for the past 15min here.

[Dangerous55019]

The sun has finally broken through here in North east Wales... Feels quite warm in the direct sun... Here’s hoping.

[Mokidugway]

Grim miserable rain ,hate it 

[karyo]

Really nice to see some decent rain this morning. Now clearing but a lot of cloud still around. 

Let's see what happens later.

@Dangerous55019 i think your location is looking good for today.

[Dangerous55019]

4 minutes ago, karyo said:

Really nice to see some decent rain this morning. Now clearing but a lot of cloud still around. 

Let's see what happens later.

@Dangerous55019 i think your location is looking good for today.

Thanks @karyo 

Although the sun is trying it’s best to break through here, it still doesn’t seem as warm as it should be... Which is a bit of a concern. 

EDIT: Ignore what I’ve just said... The sun has finally started to really heat up around here. 

Edited July 13, 2018 by Dangerous55019
Needed to add a bit more.

[karyo]

11 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Thanks @karyo 

Although the sun is trying it’s best to break through here, it still doesn’t seem as warm as it should be... Which is a bit of a concern. 

EDIT: Ignore what I’ve just said... The sun has finally started to really heat up around here. 

Good. Make sure you post some pics when the convection starts to kick in 

[Azazel]

Driving lesson this afternoon.

torrential rain will make a change from blinding sunlight searing my retinas off I guess.

[Mokidugway]

Anyone noticed the foaming spray on roads today ??

[Lynxus]

3 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Anyone noticed the foaming spray on roads today ??

Pictures?

[The PIT]

Cold with light rain or drizzle showers here. Zero chance of a surprise storm today.