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Supacell

Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

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5 hours ago, Supacell said:

If there are going to be any storms today then I would expect them to most likely occur across NE England from NE Lincolnshire up towards the Scottish border through the afternoon hours (possibly as far west as the Pennines). There is the risk of the odd rumble anywhere north of say Birmingham but it is a low risk, for most it will just be bog standard heavy showers or rain. The north-east of England benefits from a bit more CAPE (around 300-500j/kg on GFS) and also some deep layer shear. This indicates to me that storms that do occur would likely become organised and this may help fuel them to produce more in the way of lightning, torrential rainfall, gusty winds and hail. Generally though lightning activity will be sparse, especially compared to what some saw during the last week of May. Also a risk of an isolated tornado as has been pointed out in the two convective forecasts above.

IMO where there will probably be some photogenic clouds it would not be worth me chasing today. Although if I was living somewhere in East Yorkshire I would have my camera ready.

I do and I haven't 🙂

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We’ve just had a really heavy power shower! To be honest, I wasn’t expecting anything this afternoon, but after that, something MIGHT kick off. :rolleyes:

This is what I can see as it heads off towards Helsby area.

A2859F51-6B1C-462D-8BB3-EFE688CBBA25.jpeg

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Wind has veered now so that’s game over for me but that’s the third thunder day of the year; or eighth funder Rumble of the year if you like. 

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Very dark skies to the west, though I suspect it will just be plan old rain.

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Hi Cheese!

Well you might be pleasantly surprised as Bury, Rochdale, Sowerby Bridge and Hebden Bridge just have been!

Might pass in front of you but there are flash bangs and a lot of rain!

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Cloudy skies and heavy rain in my area. It's actually starting to thunder and I've seen some lightning. I'm in the North-East of England in the Northumberland area and I suspect that this will only get stronger, fingers crossed!

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Some flash-flooding in the Chorley area of Manchester recently, must have been quite intense, as the radar returns suggest.

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The rain's been dying down, and the wind has almost dropped completely. Was looking forward to a big storm, but hardly heard anything, just looks like bad weather from now on :(

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Please come East Anglia, my plants have had no rain for longer than a month and just a light shower would help lol

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Thunder for the first time this year. :yahoo:

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Fair few rumbles of thunder ⚡ east of leeds and enough rain to keep the garden happy for a few days (at best). Certainly not the heavy persistent rain that was forecast, more a thirty minute sharp shower. 

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Eat crow time for me perhaps.... Lots of sferics on am and according the the radar, lots of storms approaching... Would have bet against this an hour ago. Just goes to show....

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Quite a decent line of storms moving across Northern England, just a little too far north for here but could bode well for areas to the north-east in the next few hours.

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Line of cells to the West of Birmingham just coming into view now

a fair bit of convection visible atm

846174425_sat001.thumb.jpg.f305212940ed9835f8e40580f075c6fb.jpg

 

Edited by Arnie Pie

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Some thunder here from the squall line. Heavy showery rain now and strong winds. Southern Sheffield not yet hit by this kinky feature! :D

 

35369031_257148314834106_5043371596505415680_n.jpg

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Currently on holiday in Filey and the skies to the west look very threatening.Quite windy here so looks like any storm will move through quite quickly.

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Still without a single day of thunder yet in 2018. Looking at the radar surely today is going to be the first in the next couple of hours.

At least the wind isn't onshore so that's the first obstacle out of the way!

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Yep!  Not been great here this year so far: too many easterlies...

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2 minutes ago, Muffelchen said:

Yep!  Not been great here this year so far: too many easterlies...

Its been astonishing, just 31 days haven't had an easterly component to the wind since mid-February. Never known anything like it.

If it wants to do that in winter then it can feel free, but funnily they always seem to be westerly then!

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Well that was short lived but at least i had some thunder,lightning wasn't visible just flashes,the wind was really gusty just before the storm arrived but is all calm now

i have some footage  but just audable thunder

@reef,looks like it's heading for you:)

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3 minutes ago, reef said:

Its been astonishing, just 31 days haven't had an easterly component to the wind since mid-February. Never known anything like it.

If it wants to do that in winter then it can feel free, but funnily they always seem to be westerly then!

Yep, really, really weird this year with the easterlies. There was a period last spring too but never at the right time it seems and not as long as this one. This year we kinda missed all the good weather too due to the fret as the N Sea was still sooo cold with warm air coming across it. Even Doncaster was sunny but around here the fret and low cloud that develops from it were the order of the day.

Hopefully the change in direction we have just experienced, will mean a change in weather luck!

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