Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

[TJS1998Tom]

Feeling still and muggy here, not expecting anything though

[TJS1998Tom]

4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Well Sheffield brewed some beefy showers for areas to the east of us. They don't seem electrified at the moment but who knows

Too far West for me but can see the cell building here, muggy and still at the moment. Doubt there's enough Cape to electrify it though

Edited June 11, 2018 by TJS1998Tom

[TJS1998Tom]

This has intensed a fair bit just now

[Weather26]

They appearing to heading towards North Leeds! 

 

[TJS1998Tom]

Electrifying near Gainsborough, nothing here yet

[TJS1998Tom]

Looks like Thunder to my North from looking at real time lightning, but the suns coming out at our end 

Edited June 11, 2018 by TJS1998Tom

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

Rip Lincolnshire cell it was nice knowing you

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 12 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 13 Jun 2018

ISSUED 20:50 UTC Mon 11 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

Scattered showers will develop across central and western parts of England, Wales and southern Scotland. Weak ridging across Britain will bring drier and slightly warmer mid-level profiles and thus the risk of lightning is generally seen as small. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-12

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening all

i saw some nice convection today just before i went to work and there was the odd rumble or two of thunder as i stated earlier

this Cb was taken around 1:00pm to my east

i took my camera to work with me and i am glad that i did because i caught a funnel cloud(pic took by my mate with my camera),ok the pic isn't very good as i was traveling but you can make it out just left of the lamp post,it was def a funnel cloud because it was rotating

and finally,a pic of a Cb to the SE on my break at 6pm.

Edited June 11, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 14 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 15 Jun 2018

ISSUED 18:41 UTC Wed 13 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

A deep area of low pressure and associated heavy rain and gales will exit Scotland to the east during the morning and middle part of Thursday. Behind that in the post-frontal environment a trough and associated steeping lapse rates will help to generate some heavy showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. 

 

CAPE/Instability values will be relative low/shallow therefore lightning is seen as only a small risk. That being stated, these showers will develop in a high speed shear environment so some cell organisation is possible and even with only limited lighting, a small tornado risk exists, particularly across northern parts of Ireland where the bulk sheer is greatest (up to 50kts). Some brief, strong convective gusts will also be possible in and around the more well developed convection. The main threat period will likely be late afternoon and early evening across northern parts of Ireland.  

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-14

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 15 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 16 Jun 2018 ISSUED 18:47 UTC Thu 14 Jun 2018 ISSUED BY: Chris The slight risk of thunderstorms across Ireland on Friday night... Ireland... A small low will push east northeastwards across Ireland from Friday evening into the early hours of Saturday. Strong shear (DLS >50kts), and steepening lapse rates will likely produce some organised lines of heavy showers and some thunderstorms. These will be capable of producing some some gusts up to around 50mph and small hail. It should be stressed that lack of instability means this is a low-end slight risk at the moment.    Scotland... A weak short-wave trough will move through the flow across Scotland during the day on Friday, and this will steepen lapse-rates slightly allowing for some weak instability (200 J/kg CAPE). Convective showers are quite likely, but the lightning risk will remain small.    http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-15

 

[Chris.R]

 Looks like a small chance for me around lunch time tomorrow. 25 KTs of shear this time as well. 

[IanR]

still no proper thunder here since may 2017,  the most thunderless period I have ever known, and I am in my forties 

highly doubt anything thundery for here tomorrow being realistic,  band of moderate/heavy rain likely though

[cheese]

The Met Office forecast for here shows thunderstorms tomorrow starting at 3pm, but I doubt that will materialise.

[TJS1998Tom]

43 minutes ago, IanR said:

still no proper thunder here since may 2017,  the most thunderless period I have ever known, and I am in my forties 

highly doubt anything thundery for here tomorrow being realistic,  band of moderate/heavy rain likely though

Us here in Lincolnshire haven't had much either, I hope late June and July brings something as we tend to get some decent home growns now and again

[Chris.R]

Liverpool airport TAF showing the possibility of heavy rain showers/thunderstorm rain/cumulonimbus tomorrow lunchtime. 

TAF EGGP 151703Z 1518/1618 27008KT 9999 FEW045
PROB30
TEMPO 1522/1605 8000 SHRA
BECMG 1602/1605 19010KT
TEMPO 1605/1614 6000 SHRA
PROB30
TEMPO 1609/1614 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN014CB
BECMG 1612/1615 26012KT
PROB30
TEMPO 1614/1618 8000 SHRA, 15/06/2018, 18:03 LT

Edited June 15, 2018 by Chris.R

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2018-06-15 21:43:16
Valid: 16/06/2018 0600 - 17/06/2018 0600

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SAT 16TH JUNE 2018

Synopsis

A fairly potent upper low will pass east across Scotland during Saturday embedded in broadscale strong westerly upper flow dominating the far north Atlantic and northern Europe. At the surface, an occluded front will traverse the UK in the morning and early afternoon, ahead of surface low moving east and filling as it approaches NW Scotand. An airmass unstable to surface heating will follow the occluded front.

... N. IRELAND, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN SCOTLAND, N and E ENGLAND ...

Upper trough crossing northern  Britain will create steep lapse rates, surface heating in any sunny spells, following frontal cloud band with showery rain clearing east, will yield a few 100 j/kg CAPE, which will support development of scattered heavy showers and a few or more thunderstorms. 30-40 knots of deep layer shear could allow some organisation in multicell clusters which maybe capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts, hail and torrential rainfall leading to localised flooding. Backing of low-level winds with approach of surface trough from the west may induce enough low-level shear to perhaps support a few funnel clouds with stronger updrafts, a brief weak tornado can't be ruled out. The risk of thunderstorms will quickly fade after dark, as forcing for ascent clears east and surface heating wanes.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

[Summer Sun]

Day  2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 16 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 17 Jun 2018

ISSUED 21:46 UTC Fri 15 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

An upper trough and associated vorticity advection/mass ascent will aid in producing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the low and slight areas. 

 

Daytime heating (CAPE up to 500 J/kg) timed with maximum PVA ahead of the upper trough will be the fuel for convection, especially across central/northern/eastern England by Saturday afternoon. Cloud cover associated with an occluded front that will move through before the unstable air and drying mid-levels behind the front are limiting factors so the highest risk of lightning remains nearer 30%. 

 

0-6km shear will be around 30-35kts so should allow for some organised convection that will move ENE at about 30-40mph. The largest risk of lighting will be across the SLIGHT risk area between 1500BST and 1900BST. Speed shear could support a few shallow, rotating updrafts with the small risk of a tornado or two possible. 

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-16

[IanR]

 I am in the isolated thunderstorms zone   thats it , almost certain bust here,  game over already for Wigan,   well at least we are now getting the moderate rain band  which was dead cert    

[Martin Auld]

500 CAPE seems so insignificant after the 5000+ CAPE I was seeing while in the states haha but hey I’m in the likely area for thunderstorms today so can’t complain.

[Another Kent clipper]

1 hour ago, IanR said:

 I am in the isolated thunderstorms zone   thats it , almost certain bust here,  game over already for Wigan,   well at least we are now getting the moderate rain band  which was dead cert    

Having looked at the radar I'm not feeling today.  Looks like the usual British summer day that we've not been accustomed to of late haha.  Somebody tell me there's still hope!

 

[Supacell]

If there are going to be any storms today then I would expect them to most likely occur across NE England from NE Lincolnshire up towards the Scottish border through the afternoon hours (possibly as far west as the Pennines). There is the risk of the odd rumble anywhere north of say Birmingham but it is a low risk, for most it will just be bog standard heavy showers or rain. The north-east of England benefits from a bit more CAPE (around 300-500j/kg on GFS) and also some deep layer shear. This indicates to me that storms that do occur would likely become organised and this may help fuel them to produce more in the way of lightning, torrential rainfall, gusty winds and hail. Generally though lightning activity will be sparse, especially compared to what some saw during the last week of May. Also a risk of an isolated tornado as has been pointed out in the two convective forecasts above.

IMO where there will probably be some photogenic clouds it would not be worth me chasing today. Although if I was living somewhere in East Yorkshire I would have my camera ready.

[mac_]

Hail and thunder here in N Ireland 

[Chris.R]

Wow Thunder. Wasn’t even on the lookout because I decided not to bother but  should’ve stuck to my usual thing, it’s not over till it’s over. 

[Chris.R]

 Liverpool just took it off the TAF as well. It’s very annoying living here; whenever something is expected nothing happens but when it’s not expected it all kicks off.