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Supacell

Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 10 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 11 Jun 2018

ISSUED 21:05 UTC Sat 09 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

A slight risk of thunderstorms across northern and northeastern England on Sunday...

After a particularly active day for thunderstorms on Saturday across Scotland the instability shifts southeastwards across eastern parts of Scotland and northern England during Sunday. However, instability will be much less compared to Saturday, with modelled CAPE values of 300-500 J/kg across the slight risk area. In particular some drier air is expected in the mid-levels, noted on forecast soundings for Sunday afternoon. This is due to the upper low/short wave trough moving away from Britain into Scandinavia. This will limit thunderstorm activity, although high resolution models are still keen to develop isolated to scattered thunderstorms from around midday over higher terrain from central and southern Scotland down into northern England. Overall bulk shear remains weak/non-existant, however some modest low-level shear of 20-25kts is forecast and that combined with weak surface convergence highlights an elevated risk of landspout type funnels across higher ground in N/NE England. With the lack of shear, storms will pulse and generally be short-lived. Hail (less than 1cm in diameter) cannot be ruled out, but with warmer mid-level air, it is less likely on Sunday. Precipitable water is in the mid-20s, so while heavy downpours may occur they should be brief, but some localised flash flooding cant be ruled out under the beefier convection. 

A few models are also developing isolated heavy showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two across higher ground in SW England, Wales and western Ireland. However, weak ridging and drier air aloft will limit the potential in these area. There is also the small risk of some elevated showers surviving the trip across the Channel into southwestern England towards mid-morning on Sunday. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-10

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Pretty quiet in here. Storms around one possibly not far from here but not really moving this way.

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Some big, hard looking convection here away to the south east. Surprised it’s so quiet. 

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1 hour ago, Azazel said:

Some big, hard looking convection here away to the south east. Surprised it’s so quiet. 

It’s not likely to turn into anything - the forecasts say nothing for our area.

Mind you I think we have a better chance of a storm if there is no forecast - based on the performance of recent weeks 😄

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 11 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 12 Jun 2018

ISSUED 20:59 UTC Sun 10 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

Scattered heavy showers and some thunderstorms will develop over the Pennines on Monday...

 
A relatively slack pressure pattern combined with modest CAPE of 300-400 J/kg and orographic forcing will lead to heavy shower / thunderstorm development into the afternoon. Storms should fire over the higher terrain of the Pennines and drift slowly southeasterly in a northwesterly steering flow. Bulk shear values remain weak 15-20kts, so storms will generally be pulse storms, and with very slow movement could lead to some localised flooding, although this is considered low risk. 
 
Weak low-level shear, combined with low-level CAPE will once again mean some land-spout type funnels are possible over higher ground as updrafts develop. 
 
Elsewhere, drier mid-level air will limit thunderstorm potential in southern Britain, although instability combined with orographic lift will likely generate some isolated heavy showers over mid-Wales, southwestern England and the Scottish Highlands. 
 
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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-06-11

Yellow warning out for northern England and also Devon and Cornwall. Feels like the "right" sort of day here for storms, more so than in recent days. But doesn't look like it will be anything too widespread. Nevertheless can see a nice tower beginning to build out west 😄

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Certainly looks and feels like a thundery day here, warm and humid with plenty of cumulus clouds building.

Edited by cheese

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Humidity is through the roof here. Dodged all the showers in S35 so far but doesn’t look like staying that way.

Hope we can break out of the no storms club!

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Very warm and humid here too with clouds building to the north and west. By here I mean near to M1 J26 where I work. 

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They’re not strong enough to electrify at the moment. Short lived pulse showers.

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Despite being well inside the warning ⚠ at work in Cleckheaton, the earlier convection has waned and SAT24 shows the line of convergence is already well to the east of Leeds and drifting further away. Still feels humid though... 

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Big boom of thunder just then,got to go to work now though.

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22 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Big boom of thunder just then,got to go to work now though.

That sucks.  I think companies should offer thunderdays as part of annual leave

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1 hour ago, Supacell said:

Very warm and humid here too with clouds building to the north and west. By here I mean near to M1 J26 where I work. 

If today continues to look promising I will drive towards the pennines.  Are there any spots you'd recommend for parking up presumably on high ground to get a good view of storms?

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The cell south-east of Leeds is clearly visible from Manchester.

P1140926.thumb.JPG.e7348addbd6d3f4aac9be272ea931894.JPG

 

Edited by alr1970
Better photo
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15287256335953401820969094811177.thumb.jpg.cf6844e9703296f6b9234084d7b98015.jpg

This is in the middle of the warning area looking northwest to the Pennines/Bradford. Safe to say the warning was much too far west! 

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Yes, to the west are clear skies, while to the east it's cloudy. Another disappointment. Still just one thunder day in 2018.

Edited by cheese

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2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Big boom of thunder just then,got to go to work now though.

Yes we had a solitary rumble here earlier from a rather epic downpour 

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1 hour ago, Another Kent clipper said:

If today continues to look promising I will drive towards the pennines.  Are there any spots you'd recommend for parking up presumably on high ground to get a good view of storms?

I don't think you will have much luck today no matter where you head I'm afraid. Convection is weak and falling apart as soon as it starts to get going. Even so, it is very rare that I head into the Pennines to storm chase as I lose all 4G signal up there and without that I am pretty much chasing blind.

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Just about managed to catch the midday weather on the beeb which showed a large Funnel Cloud over Helvellyn (Lake District) from yesterday's storms.

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A weak thundery shower between one and two but certainly not worthy of a warning. First thunder of the year though. Still humid as well.

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3 hours ago, Supacell said:

I don't think you will have much luck today no matter where you head I'm afraid. Convection is weak and falling apart as soon as it starts to get going. Even so, it is very rare that I head into the Pennines to storm chase as I lose all 4G signal up there and without that I am pretty much chasing blind.

Indeed.  I would recommend the road between holmfirth and Greenfield though. Views for a very long way.

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Well Sheffield brewed some beefy showers for areas to the east of us. They don't seem electrified at the moment but who knows

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