Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

[Robbie Garrett]

Something like this would be nice!

 

[StormLoser]

Crikey. I think I'd be running for my bunker with that around. Despite being a storm enthusiast! Great video.

[Another Kent clipper]

2 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Something like this would be nice!

 

Pffft.. sporadic at best.  I won't get out of bed unless the cloud looks like a permanently illuminated lightbulb with coach wheel-diameter hail

[Daniel*]

This summer is being absolutely dire for T&L nonexistent, 2013 the last decent year? Friday may offer something but I suppose us in the southeast will just bake.

[TJS1998Tom]

Dayum, this would certainly be a breakdown. Would be perfect timing as I head West to the Lakes. High Cape levels with heavy precip rates. Still too far though

[matt111]

16 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Something like this would be nice!

 

Or how about this?

 

[Lynxus]

Well, We have had the heat. Not storms though.

Been a fairly quiet summer round here.

 

Going down south coat next Friday and the forecast was 6 hours of torrential thunderstorms up till about midnight last night where they vanished.

Not a single drop of rain now lol.

 

Gone from 30+mm to zero.

Weather at the moment is crazy. West doesn't get a look in.

 

[Chris.R]

I noticed a little bit of MUCAPE on the WRF in the early hours along with a bit of shear. I suppose nothing to be excited about. Been a terrible year here, fed up of this boring weather.

Edited July 22, 2018 by Chris.R

[Mokidugway]

13 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I noticed a little bit of MUCAPE on the WRF in the early hours along with a bit of shear. I suppose nothing to be excited about. Been a terrible year here, fed up of this boring weather.

That would time in with tonight's sky ,moderate instability 

Edited July 22, 2018 by Mokidugway

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 23 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 24 Jul 2018

ISSUED 19:37 UTC Sun 22 Jul 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

A low risk of thunderstorms on Monday...

Ireland, S and E Scotland...

A sharpening upper trough in the Atlantic to the west of the British Isles and a slowly advancing surface cold front will push eastwards across northern Britain. The frontal boundary will move into a highly sheared environment (40-50kt of deep layer shear) and could allow for some convective elements (line segments) within the frontal zone. If this occurs updrafts could be sufficiently sustained to produce some isolated lightning strikes, although the overall risk remains low. 

 

N and E England...

Two prospects for convection will occur within this low risk area. The first will be carried over from Sunday night across NCen / NE England into Monday morning, where elevated convection may produce a few lightning strikes (10% chance or less) before 12z. 

 

The second risk will be from surface based convection during the afternoon and early evening through eastern England. MUCAPE values in excess of 500 J/kg will develop into the afternoon. Forecast profiles are still relative dry aloft with residual ridging in place, and shear remains weak, however higher res models indicate there is a small risk of an isolated thunderstorm or two from Newcastle south to about the Wash. If any showers in this zone do develop in the afternoon, they could produce some brief heavier downpours and a few minutes of higher intensity lightning before decaying. 

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-23

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 24 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 25 Jul 2018

ISSUED 20:23 UTC Mon 23 Jul 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

One or two isolated showers may develop on Tuesday afternoon / evening in response to diurnal heating, low-level convergence and orographic forcing. CAPE is somewhat limited, but reasonable speed shear may be enough to compensate - that said, hints of a warm nose at approximately 700mb may inhibit deep convection. Most areas will remain dry and lightning-free.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-24

[Lauren]

Thursday is looking decent potential wise. I think everyone could do with a thunderstorm. 

[StormLoser]

2 hours ago, Lauren said:

Thursday is looking decent potential wise. I think everyone could do with a thunderstorm. 

And in fact, looking at the Met Office's pressure charts, Friday could be a really interesting day, too. It may change I know, but I would not be surprised to see some activity on the day. One thing is for sure - we need rain here. The last day it rained for me was 7 June.

[TJS1998Tom]

54 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

And in fact, looking at the Met Office's pressure charts, Friday could be a really interesting day, too. It may change I know, but I would not be surprised to see some activity on the day. One thing is for sure - we need rain here. The last day it rained for me was 7 June.

Shame it's too far out as obviously it'll change a lot but this would certainly be nice for our area 

[TJS1998Tom]

Looks like a yellow warning is in place for Friday by the Met Office

[sparky1972]

58 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Looks like a yellow warning is in place for Friday by the Met Office

i have just seen that to, also a warning on the bbc weather site for storms from mid afternoon on friday

[TJS1998Tom]

2 hours ago, sparky1972 said:

i have just seen that to, also a warning on the bbc weather site for storms from mid afternoon on friday

I wonder if it'll come off this time, though there's probably more chance that it could compared to the other day

[Ben Sainsbury]

Met Office warning area for Friday seems a little odd when the majority of attention from what I've seen is for the elevated imports on Thurs Night into Friday.

However imports are considered much more uncertain to forecast than surface based. I would expect to see a yellow warning issued for Swindon eastwards touching the east coast for Thursday and Friday in the coming days as confidence grows.

Haven't posted in a long while, but the excitement of the growing confidence of some "real" storms into Thursday and Friday means I shall return, excited to see what will take place even though much of the SW looks to miss out.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

7 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Met Office warning area for Friday seems a little odd when the majority of attention from what I've seen is for the elevated imports on Thurs Night into Friday.

However imports are considered much more uncertain to forecast than surface based. I would expect to see a yellow warning issued for Swindon eastwards touching the east coast for Thursday and Friday in the coming days as confidence grows.

Haven't posted in a long while, but the excitement of the growing confidence of some "real" storms into Thursday and Friday means I shall return, excited to see what will take place even though much of the SW looks to miss out.

Certainly some real ripe conditions available for some “all nighters” to take place. Friday looks like the day we could see some terrific surface based storms, and with temps as high as 33-34c, certainly a lot of energy there for some beauties to form. 

[Mapantz]

A lot of it will be down to timing. The Met Office themselves said that thunderstorms could scupper the chances of the highest temperatures. Bit of a complexed set up!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

24 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A lot of it will be down to timing. The Met Office themselves said that thunderstorms could scupper the chances of the highest temperatures. Bit of a complexed set up!

Overnight elevated storms when I’m free to chase suits me better than taking a chance on SB stuff overcoming a very probable cap while I’m stuck at work in sweltering conditions the next day

Edited July 24, 2018 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[DAVID SNOW]

Cell popped up over London.

[Mokidugway]

I'm at Kendal calling on a nice freebe this weekend should be interesting storm wise arond penrith as is often a sweet spot in Cumbria 

Edited July 24, 2018 by Mokidugway

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 25 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 26 Jul 2018

ISSUED 19:33 UTC Tue 24 Jul 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

One or two isolated showers may develop on Wednesday late afternoon / early evening over East Anglia in response to diurnal heating and low-level convergence. CAPE is somewhat limited, with hints of a warm nose at approximately 700mb which may inhibit deep convection. Forecast profiles do exhibit curved hodographs in the low-levels. Most areas will remain dry and lightning-free.

 

Late on Wednesday night (early hours of Thursday) there are subtle hints of some mid-level instability release occurring, mainly over the English Channel and later into southern England, with scope for a few high-based showers. A few sporadic lightning strikes might be possible from this, if depth of convection is sufficient, and also in SW Ireland associated with approaching front.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-25

[chrcoluk]

Leicester has had no rain for 59 days in a row, a storm would be like winning the lottery right now, but sadly like 95% of the time when rain/storm is predicted it just remains dry here.

We get a lot of near misses over the years e.g. cells showing up in london but never making it this far north, cells from the west can make it to derby which isnt that far from here but not quite to Leicester.

Just had a peek outside where I am facing west.

Is dark clouds to the west moving from south to north, directly above me is mostly blue sky but with scattered broken up tiny dark clouds. Even the clouds to the west look weak like they a fraction of what they probably were further south, at a guess I would say they about 20-30 miles to the west.

Edited July 24, 2018 by chrcoluk