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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

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Light cloud to my south , game on ....

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1&1/2 inches of rain ☔️ garden loving it filled up water butts too... hopefully helped with fires on moors too... 

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Very dark skies to the SW but looks like plain old rain, no T&L. 

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That rain in London has barely moved, must be a decent total out of that in the Harrow/Edgeware areas.  

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Well that shower produced a grand total of 0.3mm, lol. The ground will be back to its usual parched self tomorrow.

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Finally some rain in Belper after 35 dry days, that is 5 weeks with no rain...amazing stuff 😁.

I went out for a drive up to Matlock and around abouts this evening. It went almost dusk like at 7:45pm and then an hour of on and off torrential rain. No TL unfortunately but plenty of rain and some large puddles on the road.

Back to hot sunshine for the next 2 days.

Edited by Supacell
35 days dry is 5 weeks not 7!

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No rain what so ever in leicester!!i actually cant remember the last we had rain lol!!its been that long!!humid as heck right now!!

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Nothing much here just 4.4mm still thats the dry spell broken.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 14 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 15 Jul 2018

ISSUED 05:17 UTC Sat 14 Jul 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

A ridge of high pressure will continue to build across the British Isles bringing largely fine, dry and very warm conditions in the south. 

However, a small amount of instability will linger across eastern parts of England into the afternoon (CAPE up to 500 J/kg), and may be enough to help generate a few isolated heavy showers. Lightning is considered only a very small risk <10%, however cannot be ruled out in any heavier showers. 
 
Shear remains weak, and any isolated showers that develop will be slow-moving, however rather limited in terms of updraft life-cycle. Showers will pulse and generally weaken quite quickly. Very localised heavy rain will be the largest threat. 
 

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Cold front coming from the west Monday,havn`t seen thundery showers from the west in awhile.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 16 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 17 Jul 2018

ISSUED 07:29 UTC Mon 16 Jul 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Atlantic upper trough slowly advances towards the British Isles during Monday, while a weakening surface cold front nudges eastwards across England and Wales. Strong diurnal heating ahead of the cold front will encourage the front to turn increasingly convective in nature, in an environment of 500-800 J/kg CAPE by the afternoon. Showers will develop in a rather sporadic fashion along the front (from SW England through the Midlands / E Wales to NE England) as it continues to move eastwards, some deep enough to potentially produce some lightning - but difficult to pinpoint specific areas where this is more likely than others. Have issued a low-end SLGT (ideally considered lower than 30%) to better highlight the corridor where some sporadic lightning may occur - though even here many areas may remain lightning-free.

Farther east, strong diurnal heating will result in sea breeze convergence and the development of a slack area of low pressure / surface troughing over eastern coastal counties of England. While inland dewpoints will likely mix out (into single figure Celsius in places), moisture pooling near sea breeze convergence could locally enhance dewpoints to 15-18C. If this occurs sufficiently, some 500-800 J/kg CAPE may be available which combined with breeze convergence could trigger a few (rather high-based) heavy showers during the afternoon and early evening. Forecast profiles exhibit quite dry mid/upper levels, raising some questions as to how deep convection may be able to grow and hence uncertainty over whether much lightning will occur. Main interest would be Norfolk and north Suffolk, then moving offshore.
 

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