Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

[ancientsolar]

image of the torrential downpour just passing to my East in Cwmbran.

[Summer Sun]

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-06Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 06 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 07 Jul 2018

ISSUED 19:32 UTC Thu 05 Jul 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

An upper ridge will continue to build through Friday leading to increased atmospheric stability and limiting the potential for convection / thunderstorms across the British Isles. 

That stated, some weak CAPE (~200 J/kg) combined with strong surface heating (approaching 30C in places) and weak convergence boundaries will lead to a very low end ISOL risk. Hi-res models agree that Kent is once again a favoured spot for a few isolated, high based showers to develop. However, forecast soundings show warming mid-layers thus lightning potential is considered a low risk (perhaps less than 10%). An ISOL risk is also issued for further west in southern England, higher ground of Wales and southern and eastern parts of Ireland. In those areas, strong heating combined with a little orographic forcing could help generate a few showers, but again lightning is unlikely. In any case, shear is almost non-existant so updrafts will be short-lived. 

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-06

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

This really is exceptionally boring exceptional weather.

When. Will. We. Have. Storms????

[Wivenswold]

One man's "boring" is another man's "Loving every minute of the heat"

[alexisj9]

36 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

One man's "boring" is another man's "Loving every minute of the heat"

I was till yesterday's humidity arrived, nothing worse than wet heat.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Some pretty impressive convection around here, especially looking East towards Coventry. Wasn’t expecting this really.

Edited July 6, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 07 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 08 Jul 2018

ISSUED 16:22 UTC Fri 06 Jul 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Diffluent block pattern will evolve on Saturday, with a large upper high over the British Isles, and an upper low located over northern Iberia. Forecast profiles exhibit a pronounced subsidence inversion at 650-700mb, significantly reducing the depth of any convection. However, there may be sufficient low-level moisture (with dewpoints of 15-17C) combined with sea breeze convergence and upslope flow to allow one or two isolated but locally heavy showers to develop over parts of Kent/Sussex during the early / mid afternoon period. Any lightning activity is considered very low and rather unlikely.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-07

[BlueHedgehog074]

Looking at the Midlands Regional Weather Discussion thread, looks like people such as @cyclonic happiness @I remember Atlantic 252 @Snowy L  etc have talked about there being convective activity with a few odd isolated showers in Central areas. So I guess it would explain why there’s been some thundery-looking clouds about. Would imagine @Arnie Pie from near the city centre of Birmingham probably saw quite a lot of convection later this afternoon too and into the evening.

 

Edited July 6, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine

[BlueHedgehog074]

I wonder why it’s so quiet on here and the Midlands thread lol. Must have scared everyone away

[BlueHedgehog074]

Hate it when I get so paranoid when I post in a thread and it suddenly goes quiet and then worrying I’ve done something wrong. I know it’s silly it’s not like I’m the only one it happens to! 

(Sorry I know I’m a mod and shouldn’t be posting all this off topic rubbish. Really need to learn not to post on Netweather when feeling lonely or in a bad mood lol)

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

23 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Hate it when I get so paranoid when I post in a thread and it suddenly goes quiet and then worrying I’ve done something wrong. I know it’s silly it’s not like I’m the only one it happens to! 

(Sorry I know I’m a mod and shouldn’t be posting all this off topic rubbish. Really need to learn not to post on Netweather when feeling lonely or in a bad mood lol)

It’s nice to see the convective thread appear on the homepage every now and then during long periods of calm weather (like what we’re experiencing) - so hats off to you for that 

Could see some almost tropical looking skies this evening and it’s probably felt hotter today than any other so far during this heatwave. Walked out of the supermarket earlier on at about 7pm and it was actually like walking out in front of an open oven door.

Van temp was reading 35° - and that was after about 5 mins of driving. Incredible really - just need some good storms now

[Another Kent clipper]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

.....there may be sufficient low-level moisture (with dewpoints of 15-17C) combined with sea breeze convergence and upslope flow to allow one or two isolated but locally heavy showers to develop over parts of Kent/Sussex during the early / mid afternoon period. Any lightning activity is considered very low and rather unlikely.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-07

The daily express or daily something whatever seem to be a little more excited this weekend's convection.  I think they copied and pasted most of it from the last time a cloud or two was forecast..

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/984765/BBC-weather-forecast-news-UK-London-Met-Office-heatwave-latest-thunderstorm

 

[Allseasons-Si]

there is some interest for fri 13th

but more so the tues the following week but a long way off.

[Another Kent clipper]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 11 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 12 Jul 2018

ISSUED 04:08 UTC Wed 11 Jul 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

The remnants of a shortwave trough will slide slowly southeastwards across the Irish Sea during Wednesday, towards Wales by Thursday morning. Subtle forcing with this feature will encourage showery outbreaks of rain to develop in the vicinity of this shortwave throughout this forecast period. Some convective interest may exist across England and Wales this afternoon and evening with diurnal heating, breeze convergence and orographic forcing aiding the development of convective cloud - and while a shower or two is possible, forecast soundings exhibit a notable warm nose at 700mb, which will inhibit any sufficient depth for lightning activity - as such, no threat levels have been issued. 

 

Moistening of vertical profiles through the night will likely see further showery bursts of rain developing over parts of Wales / Midlands - but with fairly saturated profiles and meagre instability, lightning potential is considered very low.

Edited July 11, 2018 by Another Kent clipper
That's the least-thundery convective weather outlook

[Supacell]

There looks to be a chance for some heavy showers and thunderstorms over Thursday and Friday with a weakening of the high pressure ridge and increasing temperatures/humidity. The main risk is across western parts tomorrow and then possibly into the western and southern Midlands on Friday. Indeed, Friday is looking like a dose of rain for few parched gardens and the first widespread risk of storms for a long while. Even so, they will be well scattered and most will miss them. Where they do occur they will be very slow moving, maybe almost stationary, with very little movement of air to push them along. This brings a risk of large rainfall totals and flooding to some where others a few miles down the road continue bone dry. Lightning and hail are also a risk in any storms.

Met Office have issued a yellow thunderstorm warning. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings

 

[Windblade]

On ‎05‎/‎07‎/‎2018 at 13:48, Mapantz said:

Dark bases to my Northeast;

Nice.

[Windblade]

8 hours ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 11 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 12 Jul 2018

ISSUED 04:08 UTC Wed 11 Jul 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

The remnants of a shortwave trough will slide slowly southeastwards across the Irish Sea during Wednesday, towards Wales by Thursday morning. Subtle forcing with this feature will encourage showery outbreaks of rain to develop in the vicinity of this shortwave throughout this forecast period. Some convective interest may exist across England and Wales this afternoon and evening with diurnal heating, breeze convergence and orographic forcing aiding the development of convective cloud - and while a shower or two is possible, forecast soundings exhibit a notable warm nose at 700mb, which will inhibit any sufficient depth for lightning activity - as such, no threat levels have been issued. 

 

Moistening of vertical profiles through the night will likely see further showery bursts of rain developing over parts of Wales / Midlands - but with fairly saturated profiles and meagre instability, lightning potential is considered very low.

Dammit. Here in the SE we are practically begging for rain, let alone a storm (forgotton what one looks like).

[Snowyowl9]

Just a tad too far west now.

Friday the 13th is a lucky day always.

 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 12 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 13 Jul 2018

ISSUED 19:57 UTC Wed 11 Jul 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Subtly falling heights and moistening with depth will provide the potential for some deep convection on Thursday. A few scattered heavy showers are likely in response to diurnal heating, low-level convergence and orographic forcing - and given very little steering flow, slow storm-motion could produce some locally high rainfall totals. With regards to lightning potential, instability is a little limited with very skinny CAPE. Rather saturated looking profiles and fairly weak shear casts some uncertainty as to whether much lightning will actually occur. As a result, have refrained from issuing a SLGT for now - though parts of Wales / SW England / W Country may require an upgrade if confidence improves. Main threats will be local surface water issues, especially considering existing very dry ground with dust/dirt deposits on roads likely to make surfaces rather slippery when wet.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-12

[Polar Maritime]

Meto have issues yellow warnings for thunderstorms over the West & central England/Wales/South from 11am tomorrow until 8pm Friday.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/warnings#?date=2018-07-13&id=b8ea51b7-0fc4-4482-82ec-3ddfa1c6e43a

Edited July 12, 2018 by Polar Maritime
Wupsadaisy..

[richep]

That's 11 tomorrow morning until 8 tomorrow evening

[philglossop]

Nasty looking clouds to the SE of Plymouth- looks like a shower has popped up over South Brent/Buckfastleigh area. 

 

No electrics yet

[Chris.R]

 And they’ve got rid of the one over me. Nothing new there then. 

[Dangerous55019]

Yesterday I noticed some really strong convection getting going, but was just too busy in work to post... But after this mornings more than welcome drop of rain we’ve been left in a grey cruddy and gloomy kinda of aftermath... But now there are breaks starting to appear, and we have got some really strong convection going around these parts. 

[NUT]

Wales looking rather wet (if no sferics though)