Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

[Chris.R]

12 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Not sure where these storms are going to come from within the warning area. 

Nope, MO 3 hours too late. 

[Chris.R]

Lots of insolation now however. Just come back from Southport where it’s cloudy and drizzling. 

[Another Kent clipper]

It don't feel like it's over today

[TJS1998Tom]

1 hour ago, PerfectStorm said:

Not sure where these storms are going to come from within the warning area. 

Me neither, we also have a Yellow warning but we have cloud with some patchy blue skies, can't see anything happening as it's looking quiet on the radar for the moment at least

[matty40s]

There is a front stretching across the country from SW England to Northants at the moment,  the cloud layer is about 20 likes wide and underneath it is stiflingly humid. The top end of the front seems to be the lower warning area.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, matty40s said:

There is a front stretching across the country from SW England to Northants at the moment,  the cloud layer is about 20 likes wide and underneath it is stiflingly humid. The top end of the front seems to be the lower warning area.

Cloud has increased here; any chance of a storm as the weakening cold front moves through?

[TJS1998Tom]

A few showers starting to pop up on the radar, I assume this is that weak cold front

[Polar Maritime]

Some interesting clouds about just now here.

 

[TJS1998Tom]

Looking to my North, gone dark and very still atm, still 26C

Edited August 3, 2018 by TJS1998Tom

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Gone overcast here in surrey. Wow so hot too. Great news for our local festival tomo and on sunday - providing the weekend stays nice and dry

And then my eye is drawn to Tuesday - where a plume of tropical air from Africa could provide us with some decent fireworks. Watch this space!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Although I can’t help but read south/southeast in the forecast to actually mean ‘midlands’?

sorry, force of habit

good luck lincs  

[TJS1998Tom]

7 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Although I can’t help but read south/southeast in the forecast to actually mean ‘midlands’?

sorry, force of habit

good luck lincs  

Would be typical if Lincolnshire gets storms next week as I spend the week in the Lake District lol

[The PIT]

Tower going up to the east of me perhaps we are brewing something for someone in the east to enjoy.

[Scott Page]

My live weather app says its thundering outside but its just cloudy and absolutely nothing on radar...strange

[Allseasons-Si]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Tower going up to the east of me perhaps we are brewing something for someone in the east to enjoy.

Yes,as you posted this,i went to take a look and this is what i got

there was some lovely Cb's going up with some pileus caps in there for good measure,if you hadn't of mentioned this,i would of missed these good shots,thanks.

and a few shots of the sunset this evening

no storm today but the cloudscapes made up for it,i am hoping that tue night comes back with some interest as it has been showing for a few days now but the latest runs show nothing for that at the moment,not in this neck of the woods anyway.

 

Edited August 3, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Nick F]

Just a heads up with regards to the breakdown of the heat Tuesday PM into Wednesday this week, ARPEGE has been leading the way with regards to other models, namely 00z ECM and UKMO and finally 06z GFS, joining it in indicating instability developing/moving NE up across SE England and East Anglia Tuesday PM/Night to warrant potential for thunderstorms to develop here before the cooler air behind the cold front moving in from the west sweeps through.

00z EC precipitation for 00z Weds

00z UKMO for 00z Weds

06z ARPEGE for 00z Weds

Still time for this to be shunted further east in the end though ...

[Lynxus]

6 hours ago, Nick F said:

Just a heads up with regards to the breakdown of the heat Tuesday PM into Wednesday this week, ARPEGE has been leading the way with regards to other models, namely 00z ECM and UKMO and finally 06z GFS, joining it in indicating instability developing/moving NE up across SE England and East Anglia Tuesday PM/Night to warrant potential for thunderstorms to develop here before the cooler air behind the cold front moving in from the west sweeps through.

00z EC precipitation for 00z Weds

00z UKMO for 00z Weds

06z ARPEGE for 00z Weds

Still time for this to be shunted further east in the end though ...

Booo Hisss

Every year we beg for the heat to get the storms and for the most part, its been pretty bland. 

East seem to be doing well.
Some very nice storms the last month or so. No so much for the west.

I wonder if this weather pattern will hold into the winter? I mean, these kind of setups could bring us some very nice winter wonder. If it carried on as long as it has this summer, Maybe the country would be in a little bit of trouble. Lets hope it doesnt last too long aye?

I do feel more acclimatised to the weather now.. Not sure about others?  This heat was painful at the start but now its not so bad. Blood thinning? (is that a thing?)

Anyway, just some random thoughts in a fairly dry spell weather wise.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Day 3 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 07 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 08 Aug 2018

ISSUED 22:34 UTC Sun 05 Aug 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

On the forward side of the sharpening Atlantic upper trough, a warm and humid airmass will be drawn northwards from Iberia towards SE England on Tuesday. Initially profiles look rather dry and capped (to surface-based convection), but an approaching shortwave from Biscay should gradually moisten profiles by Tuesday afternoon, providing a lifting mechanism.

 

At this early stage the exact forecast evolution is a little unclear, and there may be a short window of opportunity for some surface-based developments - depending on the timing of the shortwave and how high surface temperatures can reach. In either case, a gradual increase in elevated showers seems likely during the afternoon and evening hours.

Given the magnitude of instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, mid-level dry intrusion and sheared profiles, early cells for the first few hours could become sufficiently organised to produce frequent lightning and perhaps hail up to 2.5cm in diameter. As the evening progresses, the main threats will become mainly heavy rain (and frequent lightning). Most activity will clear the coast to the North Sea soon after 00z.

 

Given the current uncertainty over the westward extent of destabilisation, have issued a SLGT where there is better multi-model consensus - but it is possible this could be extended westwards in future outlooks.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-07

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 06 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 07 Aug 2018

ISSUED 21:26 UTC Sun 05 Aug 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

One or two isolated heavy showers may develop in SE Republic of Ireland on Monday late afternoon / evening - though forecast profiles look rather saturated and exhibit a warm nose at 700mb which overall limits the potential for any lightning.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-06

[tomdewey]

Will south and west get any thunderstorms this week because I am still waiting for a thunderstorm to see over in Warminster in Wiltshire

[wimblettben]

10 hours ago, tomdewey said:

Will south and west get any thunderstorms this week because I am still waiting for a thunderstorm to see over in Warminster in Wiltshire

Agree!

Have to say we have been quite unlucky for storms here this summer with only a few rumbles the last time and two short-lived periods of intense storms in May and June.

Personally hope the risk does move further west as I wan't something to come from all of this extended unpleasant heat.

[viking_smb]

blitzortung reporting a strike in the midlands, anyone up there confirm? looks like Nottingham/derby way

[Mokidugway]

17 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

blitzortung reporting a strike in the midlands, anyone up there confirm? looks like Nottingham/derby way

Clear skys ,maybe a bolt from the blue ?

[viking_smb]

ok no worries, thought it a bit odd.

[Hodgheg]

26 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Clear skys ,maybe a bolt from the blue ?

A bolt from the blue is a bit misleading as there still has to be a storm nearby but not overhead. You don’t get lightning from clear blue sky. Sometimes lightning detectors can show false positives, in not sure of the reasons why but I’m sure someone could explain!