Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

[Mapantz]

This is a convection composite as of 12:15am:

[Robert Lewis]

The humidity seems to have increased here, looking at lots of "active" radar, one has rain directly overhead, but nothing fell, expanded rapidly as much south of reading as north of it but flew overhead, maybe will deliver something once it goes further north.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Robert Lewis said:

Done!

Thanks Rob

it helps as to where there is any action if any at all.

[TJS1998Tom]

1 minute ago, Robert Lewis said:

The humidity seems to have increased here, looking at lots of "active" radar, one has rain directly overhead, but nothing fell, expanded rapidly as much south of reading as north of it but flew overhead, maybe will deliver something once it goes further north.

Elevated perhaps?

[Robert Lewis]

4 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Elevated perhaps?

I can only presume so

Seems like the ingredients were in the mix but no ignition, i imagine it's all moved somewhere east of Oxford now.

Edited July 27, 2018 by Robert Lewis

[TJS1998Tom]

Another small cell has popped up West of Chelmsford, question is if it'll die down like the Reading cell or pick up into something worth watching

[Allseasons-Si]

Cell fired up ENE of the capital?

[StormLoser]

Brentwood. But all the cells are short-period jobs. They go up, drop a bit of rain and collapse. Is this it? Or will it build more generally?

Edited July 27, 2018 by StormLoser

[Robert Lewis]

The temperature here seems to have climbed back up after falling to around 19 at midnight, we are back up to 21 degrees here. 

[Jordan S]

4 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

Brentwood. But all the cells are short-period jobs. They go up, drop a bit of rain and collapse. Is this it? Or will it build more generally?

I would suggest to keep an eye on the rader to the west of London as an area of thunderstorms or thundery rain is likely to develop and push north northeast in roughly this area probably between 3 and 4 it’s not a certainty but that’s what I can see happening.

Edited July 27, 2018 by jordan smith

[toggerob]

Just need a cell with some good shear and outflow to destabilize the trough, like a line of dominoes once one goes the rest follows. 

[StormLoser]

1 minute ago, jordan smith said:

I would suggest to keep an eye on the rader to the west of London as an area of thunderstorms or thundery rain is likely to develop and push north northeast in roughly this area probably between 3 and 4 it’s not a certainty but that’s what I can see happening.

You could not move that easterly line a few miles further east, could you?  

[Andy Pepler]

whats that just popped up south west of the IOW

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

I would suggest to keep an eye on the rader to the west of London as an area of thunderstorms or thundery rain is likely to develop and push north northeast in roughly this area probably between 3 and 4 it’s not a certainty but that’s what I can see happening.

So basically, you've looked at the Met Office future radar and then made it your own prediction?

I seem to remember you putting up warning maps before, shortly after convectiveweather issue one, and it looks suspiciously copied. 

[Allseasons-Si]

South of isle of white anyone.

[TJS1998Tom]

Four possible potentials here I think, if they have the strength to build up

[Jordan S]

2 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

You could not move that easterly line a few miles further east, could you?  

Yeah sure haha it’s just a risk and perhaps it will be further to the east closer to you just showing the most likely area currently

[Robert Lewis]

I guess the forecast of some action around 3am might be about right the way it's starting to look and being optimistic too.

[Jordan S]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

So basically, you've looked at the Met Office future radar and then made it your own prediction?

I seem to remember you putting up warning maps before, shortly after convectiveweather issue one, and it looks suspiciously copied. 

You’ve come to that conclusion based on a couple coincidences what I wrote there was my own prediction I didn’t send it for an argument so please don’t start something out of nothing without knowing. Lots of weather sites write similar predictions but does that mean they are copying each other no?

[Guest]

Annoying just got woken up by lightning app with rogue strike - however there are Turkey towers almost overhead. Not sure where that dot on radar is Anaprop as looks a little randonly spread for a genuine return. 

[Guest]

The shower just off shore from Cherbourg looks like a genuine radar return. I might be 20miles too far west if the line of initiation is IOW to Cherbourg.

[A.J]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

South of isle of white anyone.

Yup, steering motion just east of north, quite a robust cell as well, with another firing over the Cherbourg Penn......subtle forcing in play as the predicted shortwave starts to destabalize the mid-levels....pretty well modelled so far by the hi-res suite

[GeordieX9v]

Seeing a lot of lightning out to sea off the coast of Ashington, Northumberland. Nothing at all on Blitzortung.

[Robert Lewis]

i just went outside, the smell of fresh hot rain in the air or however best to describe it, cloud cover is still pretty healthy too. 

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Annoying just got woken up by lightning app with rogue strike - however there are Turkey towers almost overhead. Not sure where that dot on radar is Anaprop as looks a little randonly spread for a genuine return. 

I just took this, which is in the direction of what's on the radar.

I have my PTZ cam pointing at it and I haven't seen any flashes.