Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

[LightningLover]

Convective weather have just issued their first ever HIGH!!

[tomdewey]

Met office south and west weather forecast 

Outlook for Saturday 

Feeling less hot. Sunny spells on Saturday but with the chance of some thunderstorms at first

[cheese]

Just now, LightningLover said:

Convective weather have just issued their first ever HIGH!!

It's definitely not their first ever - we've been under one of their HIGH warnings before. Came to nothing, mind you.

[Another Kent clipper]

Just now, LightningLover said:

Convective weather have just issued their first ever HIGH!!

Just saw it.  I was like "s***!"

Just been set free from work in Manchester.  Anyone reckon it's worth me staying up tonight?

[Robert Lewis]

low to slight where i am, so business as usual tomorrow then.

[A.J]

still plenty of turkey towers going up to the south and east as nocturnal cooling starts to kick in......probably a tad too far west for an overheader (what i'd give to be just 50 miles east of here!) but a possible distant lightshow in a few hours time?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Deleted

Edited July 26, 2018 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Wimbledon88]

For us down here in south east,if its looking quiet in channel/ n.france always think about what happened on night of July 17th 2014. Absolutely silch going on till about 1am then all hell broke loose till about 7am. Storms just erupted out of nowhere.Not sure if the set up is the same but the ingredients certainly there.

[Harry]

First ever high and an MDT extension further SE...lovely

[Chris.R]

8 minutes ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Just saw it.  I was like "s***!"

Just been set free from work in Manchester.  Anyone reckon it's worth me staying up tonight?

 Doesn’t look good for this region until tomorrow afternoon now. All the straws I have been desperately clutching have been broken one by one. After that into tomorrow evening it does look very interesting though. 

[Thunderstruck]

I’m in the bottom end of the MDT and on the edge of the black SVR ring. Please....

[Summer Sun]

14 minutes ago, cheese said:

It's definitely not their first ever - we've been under one of their HIGH warnings before. Came to nothing, mind you.

Yes it is

Quote

We have issued our first ever High risk for Friday 27th July 2018. This does not necessarily mean very intense thunderstorms, it just means confidence is high enough that the area in red has a 60% chance or higher of seeing a thunderstorm, regardless of intensity...

 

[Beverley Lass]

 

"Given the magnitude of instability, strongly-sheared profiles and dry intrusion in the mid levels, a supercell or two will be possible capable of producing large hail over 3cm in diameter along with damaging outflow winds and very frequent lightning. Some surface water flooding could occur in a few places. As such, a SVR has been issued to cover the risk of large hail, damaging winds and torrential downpours."

 

I am well within the Severe warning .. yikes.
My whippet will be scared witless if that comes off !

B.

Edited July 26, 2018 by Beverley Lass

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Get in there!!! In the rare high risk zone. Now all we need is the estofex level 3, then that’s when I’ll start wetting myself! A level 2 would even do nicely though! 

[cheese]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Yes it is

 

I'm almost 90% certain that they have released a high warning before, unless I'm thinking of an Estofex Level 2. I'll try and find it.

Edited July 26, 2018 by cheese

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Sat24 isn’t much use as it switches to infrared, and the rain radar just shows weakening showers.

Skies aren’t looking particularly good either here near Alton.

I do hope things start to look up soon - got work tomo...

[Paul Sherman]

16 minutes ago, cheese said:

It's definitely not their first ever - we've been under one of their HIGH warnings before. Came to nothing, mind you.

Definately IS their first ever High

[Harry]

My punt for estofex is a level 1, maybe a narrow level 2 for say EA to Northumberland. 

[TJS1998Tom]

That puts us on the edge of the high risk, should be interesting, guess that means we're in for a good chance

Edited July 26, 2018 by TJS1998Tom

[cheese]

7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Definately IS their first ever High

I might be thinking of their previous incarnation, UKASF, where I'm pretty sure they released one or two severe warnings (their old warnings went from slight to extremely severe, with the severe warning being red).

In any case, experience tells me that such warnings are the kiss of death as far as thunderstorms are concerned. 

Edited July 26, 2018 by cheese

[Robert Lewis]

still getting a prediction of thunderstorms at midnight and 3am, still hoping for something tonight.

[Robert Lewis]

also noticing that rain in the channel is moving more easterly than the previous one.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Feeling a little cooler now. I hasten to say the really hot stuff has been wasted as usual. Why does our weather have to act so ****ing slowly all the time 

Also it’s the lack of signals that anything is happening which is peeing me off

Edited July 26, 2018 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[LightningLover]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Feeling a little cooler now. I hasten to say the really hot stuff has been wasted as usual. Why does our weather have to act so ****ing slowly all the time 

Also it’s the lack of signals that anything is happening which is peeing me off

Don't worry mate! As others have mentioned, these plume-type scenarios often destabilise abruptly with little warning... We have plenty of time yet!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The next 2 hours from 10pm-midnight is when most models break out something near the IOW/channel let's see how things go, I have no work tomorrow so can stay up late for some unknown reason that all weather geeks try keep a secret.. Lol