Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

[Nick F]

Looks like some could see a decent thundery breakdown of the heatwave from Thursday night through to early Saturday, as the upper flow ahead of upper trough to the west strengthens and becomes increasingly cyclonic which will, by creating increasing large scale ascent and cooling aloft,  will start to destabilise a very hot and humid airmass in place across eastern Britain.

could see some mid- level destabilisation from the south as early as Thursday night across SE/E England, as hot and moist plume characterised by high theta-w values advecting  N destabalises in the mid- levels as upper air starts to cool from the west steepening lapse rates and one or two short waves run N/NE creating lift.

These potential  elevated storms clearing Friday morning but still an increasingly hot and humid airmass in place across E England which looks to become increasingly unstable at the surface too as temps rise into low 30s in any sunshine, with surface sea breeze convergence inland perhaps the trigger for some surface based storms across E England, E Mids and N England, aided by continuing cooling aloft / steepening lapse rates and increasingly large scale ascent aloft of approaching upper trough to the west.  Vertical shear will be on the increase too, as strengthening Sly flow / jet stream slides in aloft ... so scope for severe storms with all hazards to develop. This is ahead of cold front moving in from the west and clearing eastern England Friday night, which itself may bring a band of thundery rain east.

some differences between these models on timing of this potential episodes of storms, GFS more progressive in moving everything east compared to slower ECM and UKMO, so a little uncertainty over detail, suffice to say storms most likely across eastern side of Britain.

 

Edited July 24, 2018 by Nick F

[Biggin]

Thankyou Nick. Informative as ever.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Thanks Nick. Slightly baffling to see a warning out for the East of England on the MetO site when the actual area shown is anything but the East!

[Mapantz]

35 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Slightly baffling to see a warning out for the East of England on the MetO site when the actual area shown is anything but the East!

This is only one model, but other's show a similar evolution:

Look's quite 'East' to my eyes?! 

[The PIT]

GFS still has it to the east of us so at the moment it's case of probably watch the clouds go over and go bang elsewhere. Should no more by Thursday evening and Friday morning as the area will no doubt change somewhat.

[Nick F]

00z GFS still further east than 00z EC with the pre-frontal storms moving N/NE and cold front moving in from the west which may also produce a band of thundery rain on Friday.

both do clear the cold front from the east coast Friday night. 

Fax charts for 12z Friday and 00z Saturday show prefrontal trough and cold front eventually clearing east 

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Is this another case of a whole load of nothing for the central south, which has not had any meaningful rain for what seems like 3 months?

[shaky]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

00z GFS still further east than 00z EC with the pre-frontal storms moving N/NE and cold front moving in from the west which may also produce a band of thundery rain on Friday.

both do clear the cold front from the east coast Friday night. 

Fax charts for 12z Friday and 00z Saturday show prefrontal trough and cold front eventually clearing east 

 

But the fax charts agree with ukmo and ecm in regards to the plume and has everything further west for friday!

[weirpig]

Aperge Going for persistant rainfall  hitting the spine of the country and migrating East  Icon goes the same way to a degree  however timings are different at this juncture.

           

[shaky]

Gfs finally correcting west at 36 hours!!shambolic from gfs so far!!ecm and ukmo have been on this for a few days now!!

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Gfs finally correcting west at 36 hours!!shambolic from gfs so far!!ecm and ukmo have been on this for a few days now!!

Yep  quite a big shift west  Im sure we are not done yet though.

[karyo]

20 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep  quite a big shift west  Im sure we are not done yet though.

I find the 6z gfs often corrects west only for the 12z moving things further east again.

[Frosty hollows]

3 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Is this another case of a whole load of nothing for the central south, which has not had any meaningful rain for what seems like 3 months?

Last decent rain was May here 

[Mokidugway]

The south east does have a dry climate and receives less rain than rome or algiers annualy  so dry you will stay ,lol

[Staffordshire]

I have the option of either stay here (just north of Birmingham) or heading to Leeds Friday afternoon/overnight.

 

im guessing Leeds will be the better option... what do you guys think?

[ChezWeather]

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-26

Some interest tomorrow before the main risk on Friday 

[Mokidugway]

Needs a westward  shift so it only effects  Cumbria and Wales 

Edited July 25, 2018 by Mokidugway

[Norfolk Sheep]

12 hours ago, Mapantz said:

This is only one model, but other's show a similar evolution:

Look's quite 'East' to my eyes?! 

Nope, that's the North East 

[Supacell]

1 hour ago, Staffordshire said:

I have the option of either stay here (just north of Birmingham) or heading to Leeds Friday afternoon/overnight.

 

im guessing Leeds will be the better option... what do you guys think?

I have booked Friday off work and currently have the same dilemma as to whether to stay put where I am or head a little north (or northeast). It is still too far away to make a call on where is best to go. I am hoping the high resolution models can agree on a location. The 12z runs should give us some idea for activity Thurs night into the first part of Friday.

At a guess, at this range, I would say NE is slightly better, so Leeds eastwards, but north of Birmingham and Belper are also very much in with a chance. The ECM shows lightning across the area on Fri morning.

[karyo]

Manchester will be bone dry again by the look of things (tomorrow and Friday) with the activity east of the Pennines. At least, my places looks east so I will be able to see the CBs.

[sparky1972]

so far so good, i have not seen one comment that says Lincs looks in prime position for storms on friday, that still gives us half a chance, lol, looking at the forecast i think there might be just to much cloud around which wont help us.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 hour ago, Staffordshire said:

I have the option of either stay here (just north of Birmingham) or heading to Leeds Friday afternoon/overnight.

 

im guessing Leeds will be the better option... what do you guys think?

I’d say Anywhere in the East Midlands (leics, Notts, Lincs) up into S, N and E Yorkshire. So Leeds wouldn’t be a bad bet IMO. 

Birmingham, unless there’s another westward correction looks to be too risky, and storms would probably fire up and head east of there I’d say. Certainly any storms with the highest electrical activity and severe Synoptics will be on the periphery of the extreme heat and juicy profiles further east. 

 

Edited July 25, 2018 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Mokidugway]

I think it will stay east  its its natural pattern of travel accross this land ,id put my money on Newcastle Area  doing well 

Edited July 25, 2018 by Mokidugway

[cheese]

My professional opinion is that there will be a giant supercell over Leeds but nothing elsewhere.

[Mokidugway]

Just now, cheese said:

My professional opinion is that there will be a giant supercell over Leeds but nothing elsewhere.

Shaped like a giant slab of gorgonzola  no doubt