Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

7 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

They put us in a 1 zone back in May when we had the big storms down here. Again, they were spot on. Sadly each and every one of those storms missed me. On the plus side I had a good view as they passed north over south London. Some good lightning!

My first instinct is always: "what does Estofex say?"  I queried the Met Office about the contradictions between the forecasts one day, only be told very sniffily that Estofex models were different to the Met Office's ones and (what I read into it) is the MO would never dirty their forecasts with such rubbish.

Don’t estofex use a system similar to the highways agency? - what I mean is like on motorways where they bolster their reporting of immediate and near-future traffic with historical data, Estofex shore up their model predictions using data from similar setups in the past.

Whatever the secret is it just seems to work

Edited July 20, 2018 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Vestan]

Lasts nights BBC forecast assumed this rain sweeping down in a SE direction would have petered out to nothing by the time it got to the Midlands. Clearly this is not the case & nothing is happening in the south east either. Pretty poor tbf

Edited July 20, 2018 by Vestan

[Mapantz]

What a lot of people fail to do when reading the Met Office warnings, is not to look at the warning matrix. It pretty much reflects what convective weather mentions.

[StormLoser]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

What a lot of people fail to do when reading the Met Office warnings, is not to look at the warning matrix. It pretty much reflects what convective weather mentions.

Oh that matrix. Their Get Out of Jail Free card. To be frank, there comes a box-ticking point they may as well not issue a warning. It boils down to how they can avoid being sued.

Sorry, but I've had my fill of that matrix. It's worse than useless - a bit like ticking boxes on a health and safety "for the record" card.

[Mapantz]

Just now, StormLoser said:

Oh that matrix. Their Get Out of Jail Free card. To be frank, there comes a box-ticking point they may as well not issue a warning. It boils down to how they can avoid being sued.

Sorry, but I've had my fill of that matrix. It's worse than useless - a bit like ticking boxes on a health and safety "for the record" card.

So why do you just have beef with the Met Office? Why not CW? Or even Nick F?

I'll tell you why; there was a risk of impacts from torrential rain and possibly thunderstorms.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I look at it like this these days: forecasts are there to assist with the safety of the public, and not to provide pointers for enthusiasts.

So use them at your own risk!

Edit: UKWW and CW are kind of exceptions

Edited July 20, 2018 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[StormLoser]

9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

So why do you just have beef with the Met Office? Why not CW? Or even Nick F?

I'll tell you why; there was a risk of impacts from torrential rain and possibly thunderstorms.

Sorry - I wasn't getting at you. Yes I do have a beef with the Met Office and I've fed it back to them in their last survey. It is over their weather warning system and it is on these points;

1. Weather warnings are not rescinded promptly when the threat of said weather reduces.
2. Warnings are too eagerly launched, and are not frequently updated enough. The result tends to be a "cry wolf" situation where the warnings are ignored.So much for public safety.
3. The warning system should be adjusted to new stages: advisories; warnings; threats. These would be more appropriate for our kinds of weather.
4. The system is often South-East UK centric (as was amply demonstrated by last night's Northern Ireland inundation that went unremarked).
5. Warning zones follow the MO's standard UK breakdown: like South West and South East England. These areas are too broad for warning notices, especially high alerts.
6. The grid is hopeless and virtually meaningless for most folks, especially when there is a sporadic threat.

It is just a personal beef.

Edited July 20, 2018 by StormLoser

[Dean E]

9 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

Sorry - I wasn't getting at you. Yes I do have a beef with the Met Office and I've fed it back to them in their last survey. It is over their weather warning system and it is on these points;

1. Weather warnings are not rescinded promptly when the threat of said weather reduces.
2. Warnings are too eagerly launched, and are not frequently updated enough. The result tends to be a "cry wolf" situation where the warnings are ignored.So much for public safety.
3. The warning system should be adjusted to new stages: advisories; warnings; threats. These would be more appropriate for our kinds of weather.
4. The system is often South-East UK centric (as was amply demonstrated by last night's Northern Ireland inundation that went unremarked).
5. Warning zones follow the MO's standard UK breakdown: like South West and South East England. These areas are too broad for warning notices, especially high alerts.
6. The grid is hopeless and virtually meaningless for most folks, especially when there is a sporadic threat.

It is just a personal beef.

Do believe the Met follow and 'Yellow, Amber and Red' system based on exactly that. Yellow for be aware, Amber for be prepared and Red for Take action. Seems the same to me!

[StormLoser]

1 minute ago, Dean E said:

Do believe the Met follow and 'Yellow, Amber and Red' system based on exactly that. Yellow for be aware, Amber for be prepared and Red for Take action. Seems the same to me!

Actually, I suppose it is! Lol. 

I think what gets me is they use terminology like "warnings" at the Yellow Stage. I'd much prefer they'd use "Advisory" for the Yellow stage. I also think they could add a new level called "Interesting" level - for UK weather buffs to chat over.

Anyhow. I'm not up for arguing. It's just a personal take on it.

I'm off out the back now to adjust the bolts on my array of ten lightning conductors....   

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

Is it a bust now as no activity for hours or is later looking likely could some one tell me? 

[Paul1968]

More convection in my pants than there is in the sky.Yellow warning should be yeah we are having a laugh at your expense.

[Supacell]

I do not recall seeing any forecasts that guaranteed thunderstorms, just those that offered up a risk. Admittedly I could not see any risk of storms but there was a thunderstorm near to Wellingborough this evening and so those that said there is a risk were correct. Just goes to show it takes a level of expertise above my own to predict storms in less obvious situations. Well done to all the storm forecasting agencies, storm forecasters and of course the Met Office for a spot on forecast. A slight risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms in a zone from around the Wash/Lincolnshire towards Dorset with the caveat that MOST would miss them.

Please use the below thread for complaints about lack of storms or disappointments that storm risks did not yield you an overhead storm:

 

Edited July 20, 2018 by Supacell

[Stormforce11]

Looks like something is happening.. still 3 hours of the warning window left open! ️️

Edited July 20, 2018 by Stormforce11

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

Don;t think anything is going to happen tonight, night

[Jordan S]

6 minutes ago, Neglectedchicken said:

Don;t think anything is going to happen tonight, night

No most of this rain/showers will tend to peter out during the night with a dry end to the night for most except perhaps the southwest with a couple showers there.

[Allseasons-Si]

Is the uhi of London going to produce under that CZ?,there is a band of ppn developing from Reading down to Portsmouth.

Edited July 20, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[TropicThunder]

Why are there always people moaning if a thunderstorm warning is issued and then they don't get a storm in their backyard? 

A warning is absolutely not a guarantee of getting a storm, it is just to make people aware of the possibility so people are prepared, it doesn't mean everywhere within a warning zone will 100% see a storm, indeed it is made clear in the warning itself that the risk is low.

I am currently at my mum's house just outside Wellingborough in Northants, and we had a fairly active thunderstorm here earlier which was accompanied by torrential rain for a good half hour or more which caused some localised flooding, so it was not a bust and the warning was justified.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, TropicThunder said:

Why are there always people moaning if a thunderstorm warning is issued and then they don't get a storm in their backyard? 

A warning is absolutely not a guarantee of getting a storm, it is just to make people aware of the possibility so people are prepared, it doesn't mean everywhere within a warning zone will 100% see a storm, indeed it is made clear in the warning itself that the risk is low.

I am currently at my mum's house just outside Wellingborough in Northants, and we had a fairly active thunderstorm here earlier which was accompanied by torrential rain for a good half hour or more which caused some localised flooding, so it was not a bust and the warning was justified.

I agree ppl need to understand slight warnings are just that and not get their hopes up - but I still consider today a bust due to unexpected cloud coverage.

[StormLoser]

Hah - hence my name "Storm Loser"!  I went through a dry period for a few years where every storm seemed to avoid me. Fortunately I ended the "dry" spell last year, when my son and I had a great night watching some huge lightning around our home. I had a good May, too.

Yes it's a frustration when things don't turn up or miss the area. But that's luck of the draw. In May the major storms missed us - but the compensation was a grandstand view from several miles south. So I'm not going to complain.

I'm considering a trip to the USA to join some storm chasing teams next year. I hope to get my fill of some big storms over there, and even (if I am lucky) see a tornado.

Still, I'll consider tonight a success if we get some rain on our garden; some of our bushes are really struggling now.

[The PIT]

Storms actually appeared roughly in the area indicated when I was looking at the radar yesterday.

The warning does need changing as they are too slow to update. The met office also place the warning on the local forecast so you get situations like dry and sunny with unbroken sunshine and also a warning for heavy rain. They also need to improve the %. I've got a 10% risk. A risk of what rainfall? sunshine?, Cloud?, wind? If I did that at school there would have been a big red circle round it and lost marks. I'm presuming rainfall.

On other notes a thundery shower symbol has suddenly appeared for Monday. 

 

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

Monday is looking more thundery as large amounts of precipitation is showing up in eastern areas with more cape present and higher temperatures

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

12 hours ago, StormLoser said:

Hah - hence my name "Storm Loser"!  I went through a dry period for a few years where every storm seemed to avoid me. Fortunately I ended the "dry" spell last year, when my son and I had a great night watching some huge lightning around our home. I had a good May, too.

Yes it's a frustration when things don't turn up or miss the area. But that's luck of the draw. In May the major storms missed us - but the compensation was a grandstand view from several miles south. So I'm not going to complain.

I'm considering a trip to the USA to join some storm chasing teams next year. I hope to get my fill of some big storms over there, and even (if I am lucky) see a tornado.

Still, I'll consider tonight a success if we get some rain on our garden; some of our bushes are really struggling now.

I was considering the same thing next year - such is our dire situation at present in the U.K.

My main consistent gripe is we seem to always end up in a situation where there’s heat but no PPN, CAPE but no viable trigger, moist air but with no energy or lift to make it do anything - or any other combination of mitigating circumstances which leads to nothing.

To top it all off we appear to always have a stubborn cap in place, and most frustratingly 80% of storm setups just fail seemingly because they can.

I’ve been looking at Slovenia for a September holiday - they have amazing storms almost every week without fail.

Had enough of getting old watching chances fizzle away - I want storm action!

[Mokidugway]

Balearic islands in September are good 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, Mokidugway said:

Balearic islands in September are good 

Yeah I was also considering Mallorca. There’s an awesome wine dispensary in Palma - was a spring discovery and I really want to go back 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 22 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 23 Jul 2018

ISSUED 17:02 UTC Sat 21 Jul 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Marginal instability and orographic forcing may trigger an isolated shower on Sunday afternoon / evening. Lightning is considered a very low probability, given skinny CAPE - but reasonable speed shear may be enough to compensate for this.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-22