Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder snow is the best phenomenon
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
Just now, Petorious said:

Rumble of thunder a few seconds ago! Northampton cell.. 

That's a sigh of relief, thought it was going to be a bust

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

You can see on satellite that the cap’s keeping the clouds supressed.

There’s also a lot of cloud filling in the remaining clear spells between the two fronts (though we are well past the stage that heating would do much anyway).

I have a feelin we are rapidly moving towards a bust (of sorts - considering the forecasts were very restrained anyway).

It’s the usual story of a couple of hours on the precipice of something, but that vital kick is missing and it all falls flat...

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rushden. Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Rushden. Northamptonshire

Strange lightning apps not picking anything up, yet its pretty consistent lightning and thunder here now for the past 15 minutes or so... 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
1 minute ago, Petorious said:

Strange lightning apps not picking anything up, yet its pretty consistent lightning and thunder here now for the past 15 minutes or so... 

Intra cloud perhaps?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
1 minute ago, Petorious said:

Strange lightning apps not picking anything up, yet its pretty consistent lightning and thunder here now for the past 15 minutes or so... 

Could be elevated? 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I cannot see anything relating to capping on various extended skew-t charts, just a lack of any proper ingredients, apart from high PWAT levels making a deluge more likely.

Lightning being picked up 22 miles away from this weatherflow station: https://smartweather.weatherflow.com/share/3013/graph/5994/lightning/2

Edited by Mapantz
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder snow is the best phenomenon
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire

God knows why these beastly clouds are not releasing any precipitation, you can even smell them in the sky

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I cannot see anything relating to capping on various extended skew-t charts, just a lack of any proper ingredients, apart from high PWAT levels making a deluge more likely.

Lightning being picked up 22 miles away from this weatherflow station: https://smartweather.weatherflow.com/share/3013/graph/5994/lightning/2

Completely agree that lack of any real heat was a primary issue today, but there’s still something of a cap to be overcome - just looked to my eye like the larger cells of the CZ have been spreading out rather than up

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Completely agree that lack of any real heat was a primary issue today, but there’s still something of a cap to be overcome - just looked to my eye like the larger cells of the CZ have been spreading out rather than up

From convectiveweather:

Quote

It is worth noting that there is still some considerable uncertainty over whether any showers will develop - forecast soundings exhibit a slight warm nose at 700mb which may limit the depth of convective cloud

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I’m still learning about warm noses - probably what I thought was a cap

Things may pick up again as cooling begins. Warning is out until midnight, so plenty of time. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Things may pick up again as cooling begins. Warning is out until midnight, so plenty of time. 

Tony mentions capping on UKWW:

IMO today's outlook has ultimately become dependant on a fine line of condusive conditions. A number of small convective cells have tried to punch through the cap but quickly subsided. This is very evident if we re wind radar so far today. We are now approaching a point where we lose surface heating and the any results will be unlikely based on the overal synoptic set up.


For me, I see the classic condition of a strong mid level cap as was very clear within the 12z Larkhill ascent. This is why there were isolated pockets of strong dbz shown, but which just as quickly dissipated. The evidence is already shown, and it would have required some big surface warming with moisture to overcome this layer.”

(Couldn’t remember how to put this in quotes)

He also mentioned the potential of cold-pooling too - so like you say looks like we’re good for a few hours yet

Edit: is mid-level cap the same as a warm nose?

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
15 minutes ago, Neglectedchicken said:

God knows why these beastly clouds are not releasing any precipitation, you can even smell them in the sky

maybe there's not enough surface heat or something?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder snow is the best phenomenon
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire

Northampton cell travelling north east on the radar perhaps merging with another developing cell, keep in mind surface heating will regenerate it as it goes along, as you can see im saying anything to keep my hopes up 

Edited by Neglectedchicken
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate

Once again the Met Office weather warning was fatuous. It was unnecessary for them to put a warning out for this and I am surprised they misread it so badly. 

After a grey day here with no sun and a few spots of drizzle, our surface forcing is about as much as lighting a match on the patio, so we'll only get what's generated elsewhere and pushed our way by the trough moving south east.

I'm just popping out now to light some matches...lol    

On the plus side, it looks like I may see some rain for the garden later on! It's about time the tumbleweed was washed down.  

Estofex forecast was, as usual, spot on.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
1 minute ago, StormLoser said:

Once again the Met Office weather warning was fatuous. It was unnecessary for them to put a warning out for this and I am surprised they misread it so badly. 

After a grey day here with no sun and a few spots of drizzle, our surface forcing is about as much as lighting a match on the patio, so we'll only get what's generated elsewhere and pushed our way by the trough moving south east.

I'm just popping out now to light some matches...lol    

On the plus side, it looks like I may see some rain for the garden later on! It's about time the tumbleweed was washed down.  

Estofex forecast was, as usual, spot on.  

I don’t like Estofex anymore for the very reason that they are so accurate - and seem to never put the U.K. in a risk zone

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate

What????!!!!  The sun's just broken through!!!  All those matches wasted - or perhaps I burnt the clouds away.  Still not enough for forcing though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
25 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

 

Edit: is mid-level cap the same as a warm nose?

yes....a layer of warm air, in this instance at the 700hpa layer acting as a lid......nocturnal cooling though might reverse this to a certain degree as mapantz referred to

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I don’t like Estofex anymore for the very reason that they are so accurate - and seem to never put the U.K. in a risk zone

They put us in a 1 zone back in May when we had the big storms down here. Again, they were spot on. Sadly each and every one of those storms missed me. On the plus side I had a good view as they passed north over south London. Some good lightning!

My first instinct is always: "what does Estofex say?"  I queried the Met Office about the contradictions between the forecasts one day, only be told very sniffily that Estofex models were different to the Met Office's ones and (what I read into it) is the MO would never dirty their forecasts with such rubbish.

Edited by StormLoser
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Ooh I just found this:

https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/thunderstorm_satellite.asp

nice little animation

Thanks! Straight onto my bookmark bar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...