Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking like I may well be in the sweet spot tomorrow. Anywhere across the Cambridgeshire and Lincolnshire fens all the way down through Beds, Northants,  Bucks, W Herts, W London, Berkshire, Oxfordshire and Hampshire all in positions to perhaps see a good storm. As ever, it will be a nowcast situation as convergence zones can shift at very short notice. Even 50 miles would make quite a difference. 

Edited July 19, 2018 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Frosty hollows]

Right now I'm sitting right on top of that cz which is a start. Heat is starting to build so will be interesting to see what, if anything develops.  Of course I would be in the sweet spot today when I'm off to London for the weekend

[tomdewey]

I am waiting for thunderstorm in my area but Salisbury  are in yellow warning and  the south of Wiltshire in yellow warning for thunderstorms but is not Warminster and this what it looks lick in Warminster 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Majority of high res models have reduced today's risk by quite a lot.. Be interesting to see what the 06z do.. 

[tomdewey]

This is next Friday 27 July UK cape chat 

[Homerr]

MetO had the lightning symbols up for my area yesterday (Northolt) not so much now, however EGLL/EGWU TAF both going for 30% chance of storm here today. What's the consensus for London/ the SE today?

[sparky1972]

To anyone thinking of chasing today i would not come to sth Lincs, very cloudy, not overly warm or humid, so i dont think we will see any storm action today.

[MR CB]

Saw a lot of cloud building from the south this morning and now we have the first rain in probably a month and a half - the smell is amazing! This area of convective rain wasn't on the BBC forecast this morning (stayed in France) - will this inhibit thunderstorm potential later (i.e. lots of associated cloud)?

Edited July 20, 2018 by MR CB

[MrMoonlight]

1 hour ago, MR CB said:

Saw a lot of cloud building from the south this morning and now we have the first rain in probably a month and a half - the smell is amazing! This area of convective rain wasn't on the BBC forecast this morning (stayed in France) - will this inhibit thunderstorm potential later (i.e. lots of associated cloud)?

Quite right! Even the most recent forecast has no mention of it down in the SE.

I'm wondering this too. Meanwhile, showers are appearing in the Winchester area.

[TropicThunder]

Some showers developing along the M3 corridor now.  I have to drive to Wellingborough this afternoon so hopeful I might see something along the way!

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

25.9 Celsius, 12:46 Partly cloudy with sunny spells

[sparky1972]

Just now, Neglectedchicken said:

25.9 Celsius, 12:46 Partly cloudy with sunny spells

about the same here, not feeling overly humid or stormy

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

4 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

about the same here, not feeling overly humid or stormy

I agree, don't know how we are in the 'firing line' would be interesting to see if this actually happens.

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

5 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

about the same here, not feeling overly humid or stormy

I think when the weather weak front approaches it will turn humid and unstable?

[TJS1998Tom]

13 minutes ago, Neglectedchicken said:

I think when the weather weak front approaches it will turn humid and unstable?

I hope so, its cloudy here but blue skies are trying to appear and the suns a bit strong to my South, latest GFS run shows precip over Lincolnshire so who knows

[StormLoser]

So far as I am concerned the Met Office weather warning is fantasy. It is grey overcast here in Reigate, Surrey. No forcing, no sun. General rain milling about to the east. I seriously cannot see anything to kick off convection here.

The only hope I have is of compression from the approaching fronts from the west. Even Estofex's forecast is for very weak activity.

[Tim Bland]

27c with sunny spells in Herts / Cambs so plenty of energy available once that cold front arrives here in a few hours. Around 6pm is when initiation is expected so not worried yet

[Allseasons-Si]

Showers starting to break out west of London now over Reading,too far for me to travel and i cannot travel today as i have my dog at the vets at 5:45pm,nothing to worry about,just an anual injection

you can see the CZ taking place now on xcweather

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[Frosty hollows]

Lots of convection building to my east but very much capped. Showers developing Reading way, but dying out before they get this far

[Ben Lewis]

The showers were more active over Basingstoke/Reading way at 12:30/1pm then they are now. 

[Mokidugway]

Absolutely sh@te here 14 c  and drizzle , no wonder I've lost intere in the weather  more chance of the second coming than a storm so roll on holidays.

[80sWeather]

A breeze has appeared out of nowhere and now the clouds above have slightly darker bases in Godmanchester Cambs

 

Edited July 20, 2018 by 80sWeather

[Frosty hollows]

28 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

The showers were more active over Basingstoke/Reading way at 12:30/1pm then they are now. 

Yeah. There's a very strong cap in place. I'm NW of Reading and can literally see towers forming then stopping. Wind now coming from the south and the sun is out so maybe there will be enough energy to break through

[TJS1998Tom]

How it currently stands here, though light precip from the band of rain to my West isn't too far 

[TJS1998Tom]

A few cells popping up