Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

[Another Kent clipper]

Thursday don't look too shabby in these desperate times...

 

[Mokidugway]

7 hours ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Thursday don't look too shabby in these desperate times...

 

For some , looks desperately crap here

[TJS1998Tom]

Wouldn't mind this...  

[Windblade]

More recent runs showing very little. It's so frustrating there's so much unbelivable heat but absolutely nothing to do anything with it. I feel this (storm) season is flying by but with nothing on the horizon (excuse the pun) for the foreseeable future the season is being wasted thanks to these very dry highs that seemed to have locked themselves over us. I like a nice plesant day of course (I am a biker after all so appreciate dry days, but this boiling heat is too much to even ride in - above 27c all you're doing is turbocharging warm air onto yourself). No evening storms to look forward to and the temps are too high to enjoy the otherwise nice days. Hope this weather ends soon and we can get some storms brewing.

Edited June 25, 2018 by Windblade

[Mapantz]

Some charts pointing towards something convective in the South over the weekend. My first preference is for this weather to continue, as the humidity is low, making it feel less hot. However, i'm out fishing over the weekend, and seeing some storms develop Saturday & Sunday night while i'm at the beach would be quite welcome also.

[TJS1998Tom]

The 18z GFS run starting to pick up some signs of a thundery breakdown next week, even pushing a little further North

[The PIT]

Maybe something of interest next week but it's a long way away.

[Windblade]

Yes, lets keep an eye on the models. Keeping everything crossed.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Would be nice if a breakdown is of a thundery one with some pretty convective skies. Something that does look possible with some of the models showing developing Low Pressure to the South-West of the U.K. 

More exciting (personally) than a slow, gradual breakdown to Atlantic weather and general spells of rain.

[Marko1690]

Im amazed that some people dont understand the weather, dry heat will get u no thunderstorms, uts only when moisture is introduced that covective weather happens

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

12 minutes ago, Marko1690 said:

Im amazed that some people dont understand the weather, dry heat will get u no thunderstorms, uts only when moisture is introduced that covective weather happens

Not always, places like Las Vegas and the rockies, which have very dry air often see thunderstorms, often the case that they are ‘dry thunderstorms’ too. Mainland Spain often sees the same thing. 

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, Marko1690 said:

Im amazed that some people dont understand the weather, dry heat will get u no thunderstorms, uts only when moisture is introduced that covective weather happens

Most of us are looking to lowering heights from the Southwest over the weekend, that's what will help trigger something off.

[Mokidugway]

15 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Most of us are looking to lowering heights from the Southwest over the weekend, that's what will help trigger something off.

Aye , needs something to chew on ..

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 28 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 29 Jun 2018

ISSUED 17:52 UTC Wed 27 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Omega block continues to dominate across the British Isles on Thursday, suppressing any deep convection. However, a small area of 500-900 J/kg CAPE may evolve over eastern Scotland which, provided there is sufficient low-level wind convergence and some orographic uplift, may result in an isolated shower. The window of opportunity is fairly narrow, generally between 15:00 - 18:00 BST, and should any shower / thunderstorm develop it will likely collapse fairly quickly given lack of upper support and very little shear. In fact, it is questionable how deep convection may grow under such conditions.

 

Usually would tend to ignore such a signal in the GFS and UKV due to their history of being too keen to develop deep convection over mountains under ridged conditions - however, there is some reasonable agreement amongst other model output (ECMWF, CMC, ARPEGE etc). Nonetheless, treating this as a rather low (10%) risk.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-28

[Windblade]

23 hours ago, Marko1690 said:

Im amazed that some people dont understand the weather, dry heat will get u no thunderstorms, uts only when moisture is introduced that covective weather happens

Was that aimed at me? If so you misunderstand - it's got nothing to do with not understanding the weather and everything to do with being frustrated that all this heat is going to waste because the other elements necessary for storms are absent. So, in effect we have to suffer being roasted but with no payoff for it.

Edited June 27, 2018 by Windblade

[Another Kent clipper]

@Windblade Seriousness aside, there is one positive about this dominant high pressure:  no storm equals no bust.  If I had to mix in the sweltering heat with the added disappointment of storms peter out somewhere along the A47 on their route to the north sea, well... whilst being worn out because I'd stayed up to cheer on a french import

[Marko1690]

14 hours ago, Windblade said:

Was that aimed at me? If so you misunderstand - it's got nothing to do with not understanding the weather and everything to do with being frustrated that all this heat is going to waste because the other elements necessary for storms are absent. So, in effect we have to suffer being roasted but with no payoff for it.

No one in particular but im just enjoying the heat

[Dangerous55019]

Morning all 
Well, dare I say this, but could 2018 be the year that finally breaks the anomaly/curse of summer years ending with an '8'?
But despite all of this dry and hot weather, I'm starting to feel really quite storm staved, so I thought I'd have a look to see if there could be of anything on the horizon, of interest.  
The answer is, possibly yes!! 
Now before anyone has a go at me, (I mean nobody would ever get angry on the internet, would they? Lol ), I am fully aware that the models aren't fully getting to grips with this Iberian low that could be the trigger for a proper thundery break down/outbreak.

But I digress... There are a few charts of eye candy on offer from this mornings 00z GFS run! 
These start from small beginnings on Saturday, and start to get really quite juicy looking from about mid week on wards.
So in true style, I've cherry picked the best looking charts as something to keep an eye on. 

All charts screen shotted from Wetterzentrale.

 

[MrNooo]

Cu readily building here, a nice sight instead of the constant blue we've been having, not sure if anything will come of it mind but convection is occurring.

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 30 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 01 Jul 2018

ISSUED 19:33 UTC Fri 29 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Omega block, centred over the North Sea, will slowly drift eastwards on Saturday towards Scandinavia. The slow-moving upper low over western Iberia will then slide towards Biscay. The mean flow between these two features will tend to veer, allowing advection of a high ThetaW airmass to occur into S / SW England on Saturday night.

 

... REPUBLIC OF IRELAND ...

Moisture pooling will likely occur by the afternoon hours as surface dewpoints lift to 15-17C over western portions of Ireland, potentially with significantly lower dewpoints farther east providing a notably sharp boundary. Given the slack surface flow, low-level wind convergence is expected to become more pronounced during the late afternoon, which combined with the approaching Atlantic upper trough may provide enough lift to generate deep convection and a few scattered heavy showers.

Given 300-500 J/kg CAPE, a few sporadic lightning strikes would be possible. However, it must be noted that there are still several model solutions that remain rather unenthusiastic over this potential, and so some uncertainty exists over whether any deep convection may be able to develop - and for now have refrained from issuing a SLGT.

 

There is also a signal for some elevated convection to develop during the evening and overnight hours, primarily over Connaught / W Ulster, and areas offshore to the N and NW. Some lightning will be possible from this activity also.

 

... S / SW ENGLAND, S WALES ...

The first signs of elevated convection may begin to develop on Saturday afternoon over the western English Channel, drifting close to Cornwall / Scilly. While isolated lightning cannot be ruled out with this activity, the magnitude of instability will be much more favourable during the overnight hours as isentropic lift promotes more significant destabilisation, especially after midnight. Scattered elevated showers and a few thunderstorms should develop a little more widely over the English Channel during the late evening onwards, drifting northwestwards across parts of SW England, and perhaps into parts of Cen S England and S Wales.

 

As is often the case in such setups, there is some uncertainty as to how widespread this activity will be, and it seems quite likely that any thunderstorms may weaken as they drift further inland and away from the main instability source which will continue to reside over the English Channel. Latest model guidance exhibits a slowing trend in destabilisation and the arrival of more significant instability - if this trend continues then the SLGT may need to be removed as the focus may shift beyond this forecast period.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-30

[Another Kent clipper]

@Summer Sun

Hahaha.  I'm on holiday in Jersey. Not sure about sneaking out of the air b&n in the early hours though.  The host's family lives next door and the car might startle them

 

[Supacell]

It looks like this mornings runs may have extended the shower/storm risk tomorrow a little further east. Seems to be some agreement now on areas to the far SW of England to be at a decent risk of some thunderstorms from tonight and throughout tomorrow extending into the far SW of Wales. Some models (GFS) bring counties further east into play and so the likes of Dorset, Somerset and more of South Wales. Anything that does happen will be hit and miss but still a dose of rain for some parts in the SW portion of the country. Still set to remain bone dry for a lot of people though, including here whereby there has been no rain at all for over 3 weeks (last rain to dampen the ground was June 7th). The last proper rain was on May 30th!!

Some of the high resolution models such as the Euro4 and AROME are extending the rain much further east for tomorrow which is quite interesting but most do keep the risk further west and some still only the far SW tip of Devon and Cornwall. AROME on the left, Euro4 on the right.

These are for the second half of tomorrow afternoon. 

Charts courtesy of www.meteociel.fr/modeles and www.weatheronline.co.uk

Edited June 30, 2018 by Supacell

[Guest]

Given the dryness of the ground and that precipitation totals don’t look particularly high I just wonder whether there is heightened wildfire danger from any lightning that does occur, all the ingredients are in place. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I rection that there might be some flashing and banging tonight  

Edited June 30, 2018 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[philglossop]

Now not that I’m expecting much today ( tomorrow looks more likely) but I’ve got that ‘sick’ feeling which I get when we get storms. 

 

Plus us it feels different out there today, just more humid