Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

[ChezWeather]

Ah typical! Strikes now detected South of here! 

[Arnie Pie]

5 minutes of heavyish rain.....which left us with a strong ranbow

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

The storm is still going, wow!

[alexhawkins]

damn chesterfield storm sheild 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

16 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

5 minutes of heavyish rain.....which left us with a strong ranbow

looks a squall on raintoday, missed me, no lightning, just few drops

[reef]

I can hear thunder to the west now but it looks like it's becoming messy on the radar, especially just to the north.

Edited June 16, 2018 by reef

[Muffelchen]

Still rumbling here: started at 17:56 with about a flash every couple of minutes. Saw one bolt of lightning, which was IC. Nice to see even if now heading Reef's way. Most of the activity passed just to the south so heading for Hedon?

[Allseasons-Si]

I can see the Worksop cell from here.

 

[reef]

3 minutes ago, Muffelchen said:

Still rumbling here: started at 17:56 with about a flash every couple of minutes. Saw one bolt of lightning, which was IC. Nice to see even if now heading Reef's way. Most of the activity passed just to the south so heading for Hedon?

It's starting to look like a NE Lincs hit rather than here on the radar to be honest. It's all gone a bit quiet.

The rain has just started to we'll know in minute!

[Muffelchen]

Kinda weird on radar, it just seems to have petered out just West of Hull bu developed on the S bank. I cannot count how many days I have heard thunder and looked South and it has been black then checked the radar and it has been Scunny way on....

[reef]

We have a hit, 67.4mm/hr, albeit brief.

[The PIT]

Mostly dealt with by the Sheffield shield but it let some heavy rain through.

[Zak M]

Can see a big band of rain in the distance with a huge band of cloud that could possibly develop into a decent thunderstorm. Currently filming a timelapse of the clouds forming and growing so I'll upload them later.

[TJS1998Tom]

We brew them but the North gets them... impressive skies here but just not for us

[Zak M]

11 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

We brew them but the North gets them... impressive skies here but just not for us

The bottom of your picture looks like a funnel forming.

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

I can see the Leicester storm from Cambridgeshire, I don't know if its extending south or its just the size of it making it clear from a long distance..

[GlennP2]

Hi all. 

Watched this approach us at Spurn from the west. Constant rumbling and flashing towards Immingham and Hull and I assumed it would pass us by. However the clouds built and approached then let go with a vengeance!!  No Thunder and Lightning directly for us unfortunately as the main bit just went to the North West. 

 

Regards Glenn

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

I think this could potentially connect and grow stronger?

[TJS1998Tom]

3 minutes ago, Neglectedchicken said:

I think this could potentially connect and grow stronger?

Nah, looks like they're starting to weaken

[Supacell]

2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

@Supacell,you got thunder,sferic SW of you.

No nothing here. The closest sferic was just SW of Derby but I am about 10 miles north of Derby. The line pretty much missed here, giving just a 5 minute moderate shower.

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

Extremely heavy rain here now, no electric potential sadly. But I am happy to get some rain.

[Another Kent clipper]

Similarly the stormy weather happened when I was out working near ashton under lyme and was short lived so no photo opportunities or good viewing. The big convective torrential raindrops and ominous approaching clouds however left me quite refreshed and satisfied.  Approximately four rumbles were heard I'm not gonna lie 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 18 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 19 Jun 2018

ISSUED 20:20 UTC Sun 17 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

The passage of a shortwave trough on Monday evening will result in a narrow temporal window of cool air aloft overlapping relatively warm SSTs and steepening mid-level lapse rates, within a highly-sheared environment. Scattered squally showers are likely to develop over Lewis during the second half of the afternoon, the focus then shifting over far NW mainland Scotland to Orkney and Shetland by evening.

 

Instability is rather low, but the strong shear may be enough to compensate to produce some isolated / sporadic lightning, primarily between 15z - 21z. Some strong gusts of wind may be possible near some of these showers. Beyond 21z, increasing subsidence aloft, weakening instability and a reduction in shear will result in shallower, disorganised convection and hence a very low risk of lightning.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-18

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 19 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 20 Jun 2018

ISSUED 20:04 UTC Mon 18 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

Main focus during this forecast period will be late afternoon and through the evening / overnight associated with the frontal wave running from Ireland into Scotland / N England. Increasing baroclinicity as a high ThetaW airmass approaches from the Atlantic will result in fairly saturated profiles with periods of heavy rain running across parts of Ireland into Scotland and N England. Rain will be particularly prolonged on exposed high ground in these areas.

 

On the southern flank, some pockets of drier air are possible in the mid-levels, with marginal elevated instability. Some convective elements are possible as a result, especially given a strongly-sheared environment, though the true depth of such convection may be too shallow (especially given the fairly saturated nature of the column) for much in the way of lightning. 

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-19

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 20 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 21 Jun 2018

ISSUED 18:14 UTC Tue 19 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough will swing southeastwards across Scotland on Wednesday evening, with cold mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs generating 200-500 J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers are likely across the LOW threat area, some capable of producing a few lightning strikes, small hail and gusty winds. Deepest convection will likely be during the evening hours, before decaying and easing away to the North Sea overnight. Coverage of lightning will likely be too sparse to upgrade to SLGT.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-20