Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

[samadamsuk]

6 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

We’re looking at heading out to Slovenia in July. Literally a storm every day this week - and chuffin gooduns at that!

️ ️ ️

Good plan. Im on lake garda for the first 2 weeks of july, so not a milliin miles away. Had a supercell there last time!

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2018-06-07 22:31:08
Valid: 08/06/2018 00z to 09/06/2018 06z

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRI 8TH JUNE 2018

Synopsis

An upper ridge extends NE between Iceland and Scotland with a small upper low close to Scotland and a larger upper low close to NW Iberia during Friday. At the surface, a generally slack pressure gradient will exist, with shallow areas of low pressure  over much of Europe, a warm and humid airmass over the UK will be most unstable across NW Britain - where afternoon heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop.

... IRELAND, N. IRELAND and W SCOTLAND ...

Like today, local sea breeze convergence and/or upslope onshore flow will create lift of moist air into cool air aloft embedded in weak upper low - supporting the development of afternoon / early evening heavy showers and thunderstorms. This activity will be fairly localised, but with slow-movement or training of shower/storms along convergence / upslope lift zones and source of warm/moist air (dew points of low to mid teens) - there is potential for some localised flash-flooding - particularly in hillier areas. 

... SW ENGLAND ...

Local sea breeze convergence inland may trigger a few isolated heavy showers with thunder across Cornwall, Devon, Somerset and perhaps Dorset through the afternoon ... there is a risk of localised flooding with any of these showers/storms.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 hours ago, samadamsuk said:

Good plan. Im on lake garda for the first 2 weeks of july, so not a milliin miles away. Had a supercell there last time!

Wow - hopefully we’ll get something memorable too  

Hoping for some sun obvs, but making sure we have a good balcony or garden with a view for any storms that may head our way.

Maribor seems to have at least one significant storm every day (this week anyway). I might buy a shed in a field there and use it as my holiday home

[Frosty hollows]

Oh to be in central Ireland now

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

Are those thunderstorms in south of France make over the channel to south west of UK 

[Zak M]

4 minutes ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

Are those thunderstorms in south of France make over the channel to south west of UK 

Very unlikely I would say. When there are thunderstorms in South France and the storms are travelling north then they tend to die away.

Edited June 8, 2018 by zakarias285

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

It feel thundery in warminster in Wiltshire and I get headaches when I get thundery feel to the air

[samadamsuk]

6 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Wow - hopefully we’ll get something memorable too  

Hoping for some sun obvs, but making sure we have a good balcony or garden with a view for any storms that may head our way.

Maribor seems to have at least one significant storm every day (this week anyway). I might buy a shed in a field there and use it as my holiday home

Your storm shed sounds awesome :)  heres a pic of the supercell - the straight line winds came across the lake and all hell broke loose.. 

[Mapantz]

Temp made it to 23.2°C before it clouded over again. Blue skies are back now, 21.1°C

[Andy Bown]

1 hour ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

It feel thundery in warminster in Wiltshire and I get headaches when I get thundery feel to the air

Tom I admire your enthusiasm but it is nothing like being thundery in Warminster!

Thick cloud and 19c maximum until an hour ago and now pleasant/sunny.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, samadamsuk said:

Your storm shed sounds awesome  heres a pic of the supercell - the straight line winds came across the lake and all hell broke loose.. 

Amazing!

 

I wish I could find the images / gif from a storm last year - a weird cloud formation I noticed rapidly began to rotate and produced a stunning fork of lightning right in front of me. I’m sure it was a cell becoming supercellular. It then quickly headed northwards toward the Farnham area. Looked very similar to your photo.

[Jordan S]

49 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Amazing!

 

I wish I could find the images / gif from a storm last year - a weird cloud formation I noticed rapidly began to rotate and produced a stunning fork of lightning right in front of me. I’m sure it was a cell becoming supercellular. It then quickly headed northwards toward the Farnham area. Looked very similar to your photo.

Was it that mesocyclone that pushed northwards to the west of London because that had a very good cloud structure to it it was last July. July 18th.

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 09 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 10 Jun 2018

ISSUED 20:24 UTC Fri 08 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

Widespread thunderstorms are expected across parts of Scotland and Ireland on Saturday afternoon...

 

A shortwave trough and associated positive vorticity advection will spread northeastwards across Scotland during Saturday helping to promote mass ascent. This combined with slack surface pressure and daytime heating will help to fuel surface based thunderstorm development into the afternoon.

 

CAPE values of around 1,000 J/kg will be present across parts of Scotland by the afternoon, however bulk shear will be weak (generally less than 15kts), so storms will likely pulse and perhaps become multi-celluar at times. Orographically enhanced updrafts along with the aforementioned instability could help to generate hail to 1.5cm in diameter in the strongest storms. A few funnels, and perhaps a landspout tornado cannot be ruled out in the earlier stages of thunderstorm develop, particularly in the two Moderate risk areas in Scotland. 

 

The biggest impact will be from localised flooding as thunderstorms drift only slowly off to the northeast once they have developed. Local downpours in valleys across Scotland could pose a risk of flash flooding, so please monitor https://floodline.sepa.org.uk/floodupdates/ for flood alerts and warnings, especially into the afternoon. 

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-09

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

I am not happy with Scotland and Ireland getting the thunderstorms  and I want thunderstorms down here and South West this weather forecast getting boring now I have to wait to end of this month until next month for thunderstorms which is going to be boring

Edited June 8, 2018 by Tom dewey likes thunder

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

I am sorry for moaning about because of my aspergers syndrome autism and get over excited about thunderStroms and and overly obsessed about them and attend to go on and on about it as I didn't mean to

[Ben Sainsbury]

Tom we are all inspired by your excitement, that's exactly what we want! In other news, I have lots of confidence for Scotland tomorrow, whenever ConvectiveWeather issue a MDT zone you know it's about to go down!

Edited June 8, 2018 by Ben Sainsbury

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

I hoping what this summer will bring us and heatwave or lot of thunderStroms 

Edited June 8, 2018 by Tom dewey likes thunder

[Another Kent clipper]

59 minutes ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

I hoping what this summer will bring us and heatwave or lot of thunderStroms 

Yeah, I'm banking on a French storm import during my early july holiday in Jersey

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 hours ago, jordan smith said:

Was it that mesocyclone that pushed northwards to the west of London because that had a very good cloud structure to it it was last July. July 18th.

I think you might be right - I tried looking earlier through the attachments ont he forum but no luck. I’m sure it was summer almost exactly one year ago cos I had my old van at the time and I remember being a bit miffed cos I thought it was all over, and then things just started kicking off - then it was one of the most fantastic storms the central south and London have seen for years!

when I get time i’ll trawl through my photos and find it. (I’m a very disorganised person)...

[Jordan S]

3 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I think you might be right - I tried looking earlier through the attachments ont he forum but no luck. I’m sure it was summer almost exactly one year ago cos I had my old van at the time and I remember being a bit miffed cos I thought it was all over, and then things just started kicking off - then it was one of the most fantastic storms the central south and London have seen for years!

when I get time i’ll trawl through my photos and find it. (I’m a very disorganised person)...

Would be great to see any pics of it  when you find them haha

[BlueHedgehog074]

10 hours ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

I am sorry for moaning about because of my aspergers syndrome autism and get over excited about thunderStroms and and overly obsessed about them and attend to go on and on about it as I didn't mean to

Ar I know how you feel, and is totally understandable to be honest. I get obsessed with both thunderstorms and snow and become secretly very disappointed when the snow or thunder doesn’t happen lol!

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

Any action tonight or should we call it another day?

[Another Kent clipper]

2 hours ago, Neglectedchicken said:

Any action tonight or should we call it another day?

I would definitely call it a day unless you fancy driving to Scotland where the party has already started

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

Will those thunderStroms from France coming up to south and west UK and I feels very humid here in warminster in Wiltshire and I feels thundery 

[Had Worse]

The tops of Storms over Lancaster can be seen from my front window. There' a hill in the way with Carbrook on the otherside. Must be 70 miles away.

Edited June 9, 2018 by Had Worse