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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex

Certainly making good headway towards Kent right now. It’s very rare for me to say this but I actually hope the storms stay away from here tonight! I have a GCSE Maths exam in the morning and could do without a disturbed sleep. Don’t want to sound selfish or ungrateful but need to get my priorities right! 

I think I’m clear at the moment but I could do with it going slightly further West just to be sure. 

Hope everyone else in the firing line enjoys it however! :) 

And no, sleeping through it is not an option. I’m a deep sleeper but I never sleep through storms! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Bright flash and a rumble just then!

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Posted
  • Location: Hawkhurst (TN18) Kent
  • Weather Preferences: All weather extremes
  • Location: Hawkhurst (TN18) Kent

Sat neat dungeness watching cgs dropping from the sky pretty often, some lovely, deep, booming thunder too!

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Watching hasting pier webcam, can see flashes on there but the camera keeps moving. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
24 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Certainly making good headway towards Kent right now. It’s very rare for me to say this but I actually hope the storms stay away from here tonight! I have a GCSE Maths exam in the morning and could do without a disturbed sleep. Don’t want to sound selfish or ungrateful but need to get my priorities right! 

I think I’m clear at the moment but I could do with it going slightly further West just to be sure. 

Hope everyone else in the firing line enjoys it however! :) 

And no, sleeping through it is not an option. I’m a deep sleeper but I never sleep through storms! 

Now now young man (Christ I’m getting old) I had to endure storms during most of my exam years, either night time displays or on at least one occasion booming thunder reverberating around the sports hall. You’ll do just fine (and good luck!!).

Sat here at my bedroom window watching a gorgeous display. Combination of cloud illuminations and clear air electric blue flashes.

Not expecting it to hold together for too long so wont stay up - keeping the window open though on the off chance.

Hope everyone who can see this enjoys it!

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
12 hours ago, jordan smith said:

 Never said that humidity always causes thunderstorms last week there was a few days of humid conditions only 1 day was over forecast and that was the Thursday also while you didn’t receive thunderstorms that is not to say that any of it was over egged not everywhere will get them and this set up is not the same and therefore thunderstorms are much less likely air won’t be particularly humid tonight pressure isn’t as low and it’s not as warm which are just a few factors that are going against thunderstorms. Most of the thundery activity is over the continent and will remain so for Tonight and tomorrow a few showers and thunderstorms are possible but this time very isolated and not severe. Also no warnings from the met Office which gives you an idea of the lower likelihood of anything severe. 

By all accounts last night’s little show on the SE coast is a good example of a somewhat under-egged forecast - probably a better and more solid storm than most would have expected. Shame it wasn’t further west and inland but I think a good indicator that this slack regime we have offers itself best to nowcasting and that anything can happen.

At one point nearly 10,000 strikes in the course of about an hour from a couple of very slow moving continental storms - right on our doorstep!

Until we get our Atlantic system and jest stream back i’m taking most storm forecasts with a very fresh pinch of salt

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 08 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 09 Jun 2018

ISSUED 19:58 UTC Thu 07 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

Thunderstorms will develop across Ireland and western Scotland during Friday afternoon...

 
Ireland and western Scotland...
 
CAPE values will approach 1,000 J/kg by mid-afternoon in response to daytime heating allowing surface based thunderstorms to develop across Ireland. A few thunderstorms are also likely to develop across western Scotland in response to weak convergence and topographic forcing, although instability will be less and forecast profiles are drier (compared with Ireland). 
 
Southwestern Britain...
 
Weak mid-level instability will be present across southern Britain, although midlevel profiles are very dry, so showers are expected to be very isolated, and not likely to produce lightning. 
 
 
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
11 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

By all accounts last night’s little show on the SE coast is a good example of a somewhat under-egged forecast - probably a better and more solid storm than most would have expected. Shame it wasn’t further west and inland but I think a good indicator that this slack regime we have offers itself best to nowcasting and that anything can happen.

At one point nearly 10,000 strikes in the course of about an hour from a couple of very slow moving continental storms - right on our doorstep!

Until we get our Atlantic system and jest stream back i’m taking most storm forecasts with a very fresh pinch of salt

No the thunderstorms close to the south were shown by some forecast models and i indicated something pushing into south east England. Last night was mostly dry and quiet with just a couple of normal thunderstorms nothing exceptional which is why no warning was issued like i said this setup is not identical to the previous hence lower storm risk .

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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester
56 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

No the thunderstorms close to the south were shown by some forecast models and i indicated something pushing into south east England. Last night was mostly dry and quiet with just a couple of normal thunderstorms nothing exceptional which is why no warning was issued like i said this setup is not identical to the previous hence lower storm risk .

Jordon, with all respect, you dont need to be an authority on forecasting - theres some very learned and clever people in here - just join in giving your opinion without trying to own the discussion.

Im looking forwards to the jet coming closer to our shores and we get out of this popcorn storm regime! 

 

Samos

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8 minutes ago, samadamsuk said:

Jordon, with all respect, you dont need to be an authority on forecasting - theres some very learned and clever people in here - just join in giving your opinion without trying to own the discussion.

Im looking forwards to the jet coming closer to our shores and we get out of this popcorn storm regime! 

 

Samos

There's one or two but mostly egos ..

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
6 minutes ago, samadamsuk said:

Jordon, with all respect, you dont need to be an authority on forecasting - theres some very learned and clever people in here - just join in giving your opinion without trying to own the discussion.

Im looking forwards to the jet coming closer to our shores and we get out of this popcorn storm regime! 

 

Samos

I wasn’t trying to be an authority of anything and I’m very sure there are clever people but saying a forecast is underegged just because of thunderstorm activity to the south east is just silly and I’m stating that there was no weather warnings for a reason last night but some people don’t seem to understand plus I’m sharing my knowledge of it all I would much rather people discuss things instead of saying a fact that isn’t correct it’s unnecessary. 

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Just now, jordan smith said:

I wasn’t trying to be an authority of anything and I’m very sure there are clever people but saying a forecast is underegged just because of thunderstorm activity to the south east is just silly and I’m stating that there was no weather warnings for a reason last night but some people don’t seem to understand plus I’m sharing my knowledge of it all I would much rather people discuss things instead of saying a fact that isn’t correct it’s unnecessary. 

Somewhat disappointed thought you were an expert on meso convective weather

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
Just now, Mokidugway said:

Somewhat disappointed thought you were an expert on meso convective weather

Why are you disappointed?

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
Just now, Mokidugway said:

I live in a world of non convective disappointment but on a bright note I have a weekend in. Estonia ??

But what made you think otherwise about me being an expert ?

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

I didn't ,if you know me I'm NW biggest Micky taker ,lol

Oh okay haha I was just trying to put a point across I do make a few weather watches and warnings and stuff when potential bad weather is on it’s way like last night had a weather watch in force which is just to keep an eye on the weather but shouldn’t be severe then have other more serious warnings if need be when I put them on here it’s worth a read ??

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Just now, jordan smith said:

Oh okay haha I was just trying to put a point across I do make a few weather watches and warnings and stuff when potential bad weather is on it’s way like last night had a weather watch in force which is just to keep an eye on the weather but shouldn’t be severe then have other more serious warnings if need be when I put them on here it’s worth a read ??

Nothing wrong with that   Lol keep it up and have some fun with weather .

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
Just now, Mokidugway said:

Nothing wrong with that   Lol keep it up and have some fun with weather .

Ofcourse and hopefully you find them useful

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
25 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

I live in a world of non convective disappointment but on a bright note I have a weekend in Estonia ??

We’re looking at heading out to Slovenia in July. Literally a storm every day this week - and chuffin gooduns at that!

⚡⚡⚡

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