Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 05 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 06 Jun 2018

ISSUED 19:25 UTC Mon 04 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

A weak surface trough will help to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across western parts of Ireland during the afternoon. 

 

Northwestern Ireland...

 

Diurnal heating will help push CAPE values to 700-1000 J/kg by mid to late afternoon across parts of western Ireland. This will trigger scattered convection with the potential for some lightning. Shear values will remain low so showers will be pulse variety and slow-moving and like previous days localised flooding will be the biggest threat. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-05

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 05 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 06 Jun 2018

ISSUED 19:25 UTC Mon 04 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

A weak surface trough will help to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across western parts of Ireland during the afternoon. 

 

Northwestern Ireland...

 

Diurnal heating will help push CAPE values to 700-1000 J/kg by mid to late afternoon across parts of western Ireland. This will trigger scattered convection with the potential for some lightning. Shear values will remain low so showers will be pulse variety and slow-moving and like previous days localised flooding will be the biggest threat. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-05

A re run of what's happening now ,lol

[Mokidugway]

Some elevated convection feeding on sunset cooling 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 06 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 07 Jun 2018

ISSUED 19:49 UTC Tue 05 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

Southern England and the Channel Islands...

 

Elevated showers and potentially a few thunderstorms may move northwards into Channel Isles and southern and southeastern England from Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. It should be stressed that most of the day will remain dry across southern Britain and this risk if generally from 18z onwards. 

 

A marginally unstable mid-level airmass will be characterised by MUCAPE values of around 200 J/kg overnight across the Channel and near southern England, along with Boyden values of 95-96. Lightning is considered a low risk with this initial wave of mid-level instability, but further potential will persist on Thursday through the weekend. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-06

[Nick F]

After a holiday abroad during the half-term, when I was unable to do forecasts for this very active period of storms, I am back home to forecast a risk of some storms from tonight, after a brief lull since last week. Risk of storms looks to continue in the south on Friday and through the weekend too, though not looking to be the same calibre as last week, for now.

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2018-06-06 15:00:13
Valid: 06/06/2018 2200 - 07/06/2018 2359

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - THURS 7TH MAY 2018

Synopsis

A slack flow pattern will persist across NW Europe over the next 36 hours or so, an upper trough over the mid-N Atlantic will disrupt into a cut-off upper low which will drift SE towards western Iberia by Friday as heights rebuild to the north. At the surface, high pressure will continue to dominate northern UK, while lower pressure on the near continent and warm/moist air advection from the south contribute to increasing instability and risk of thunderstorms across southern UK from tonight and through Thursday.

... S ENGLAND, S WALES, MIDLANDS and E ANGLIA ...

Later this evening and overnight, models indicate an increase in mid-level instability spreading NW out of France as a plume of warm / moist air spreads north atop of a cooler, drier and more stable NEly surface flow. This isentropic lift of the warm conveyor will create steepening lapse rates and likely support scattered elevated heavy showers and a few isolated thunderstorms spreading in across the far S and SE of England overnight into Thursday morning, before activity eases north and wanes. Local downpours could bring some localised surface water flooding.

Following the weakening/easing north of morning mid-level instability ... increasing low-level moisture combined with surface heating and surface breeze convergence inland over S England and maybe S Wales may support the development of isolated thunderstorms, some of these storms may produce hail and slow-moving torrential downpours leading to localised flooding. Limiting factor to a more widespread and organised risk of storms will be weak flow aloft and neutral-weakly positive heights. 

... W SCOTLAND, NW IRELAND and N IRELAND ...

Models indicate that, despite general weak heights / ridging, sea breeze fronts moving inland and orographic lift may provide enough pooling of moisture and lift combined with surface heating to produce isolated afternoon thunderstorm development that may continue into the evening before fading as diurnal heating wanes. Slow-moving nature of these storms may bring a risk of localised flooding.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Well a possibility of storms this evening so I’ll be radar watching

Obviously they won’t be quite like the ones last week - remember those almighty gentle rain showers we got?

Ha! No you won’t remember those, because I don’t think we even really got any rain... lol

[Hodgheg]

44 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Well a possibility of storms this evening so I’ll be radar watching

Obviously they won’t be quite like the ones last week - remember those almighty gentle rain showers we got?

Ha! No you won’t remember those, because I don’t think we even really got any rain... lol

Doesn't look like must of a stay up late do to me. Things look more likely to happen in the early hours. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

15 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

Doesn't look like must of a stay up late do to me. Things look more likely to happen in the early hours. 

That stuff in France has caught my attention - just take a look on sat24 and that cloud is exploding!

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 07 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 08 Jun 2018

ISSUED 18:46 UTC Wed 06 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southern Britain, western Scotland and parts of western Ireland...

 

Southern and central England and most of Wales...

 

Weak mid-level instability will spread northwards across the Channel and through southern and central England and Wales during Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps an odd thunderstorm are possible in this area. Lightning risk is considered low due to only modestly unstable mid-level profiles and lack of shear. 

 

Western Ireland and western Scotland...

 

Surface based thunderstorms may develop in response to daytime heating and weak surface convergence in these areas. CAPE values of 400-700 J/kg are forecast, however shear values remains low, therefore sustained updrafts are unlikely and lightning is considered a low risk. 

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-07

[Jordan S]

Zoom in to read this nothing severe is expected this is just a watch, keep an eye on things.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

22 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Zoom in to read this nothing severe is expected this is just a watch, keep an eye on things.

Like last week I think isolated storms could be of the shock and awe variety - short and noisy with very heavy rain.

Not expecting a monsoon tonight but that stuff in France is edging closer, there’s small acas towers about outside (was a line of them earlier) and the night is young.

Wouldnt be at all surprised if a few discreet cells pass by during the night

[Jordan S]

5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Like last week I think isolated storms could be of the shock and awe variety - short and noisy with very heavy rain.

Not expecting a monsoon tonight but that stuff in France is edging closer, there’s small acas towers about outside (was a line of them earlier) and the night is young.

Wouldnt be at all surprised if a few discreet cells pass by during the night

There are differences compared too last week in that the air is not particularly humid and it’s not as unstable and therefore conditions just aren’t prime for big isolated thunderstorms tonight the thunderstorms and stuff that is happening over France will not maintain that intensity if they tracked northwards towards the south but the odd thunderstorm can’t be ruled out as you can see I’ve got a weather watch in force which means no severe weather expected but weather that may effect you in a minor way is possible hope that helps.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

17 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

There are differences compared too last week in that the air is not particularly humid and it’s not as unstable and therefore conditions just aren’t prime for big isolated thunderstorms tonight the thunderstorms and stuff that is happening over France will not maintain that intensity if they tracked northwards towards the south but the odd thunderstorm can’t be ruled out as you can see I’ve got a weather watch in force which means no severe weather expected but weather that may effect you in a minor way is possible hope that helps.

A lot of the humidity came and went last week without even a single spark, so humidity - while important - is just part of the bigger picture.

We have the same chance this week as last week in my opinion. Last week was grossly over-egged (imby anyway) and the storms that did occur were overrated and disorganised.

I’m after some decent thundery showers over the weekend - reckon it’s not too much to ask

[Mokidugway]

Some fall streaks or virga tonight

Edited June 6, 2018 by Mokidugway

[Jordan S]

20 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

A lot of the humidity came and went last week without even a single spark, so humidity - while important - is just part of the bigger picture.

We have the same chance this week as last week in my opinion. Last week was grossly over-egged (imby anyway) and the storms that did occur were overrated and disorganised.

I’m after some decent thundery showers over the weekend - reckon it’s not too much to ask

 Never said that humidity always causes thunderstorms last week there was a few days of humid conditions only 1 day was over forecast and that was the Thursday also while you didn’t receive thunderstorms that is not to say that any of it was over egged not everywhere will get them and this set up is not the same and therefore thunderstorms are much less likely air won’t be particularly humid tonight pressure isn’t as low and it’s not as warm which are just a few factors that are going against thunderstorms. Most of the thundery activity is over the continent and will remain so for Tonight and tomorrow a few showers and thunderstorms are possible but this time very isolated and not severe. Also no warnings from the met Office which gives you an idea of the lower likelihood of anything severe. 

[Harry]

Thunderstorms just off the Kent coast. Let’s see how they get on. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, Harry said:

Thunderstorms just off the Kent coast. Let’s see how they get on. 

Moving very slowly but the total strikes registered from those two cells combined is impressive

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening guys

i have not been on for a while due to there not being much interest in the weather convective wise but i have been watching those storms getting even closer from the continent in the last few hours,ok,i will not see anything here(hay ho! as usual)but there could be some surprises along the south coast and a bit further inland

i am not going to moan (as that is for the dedicated thread) that i have not had a single storm this year but my patience will be rewarded at some point,when,if and where,i don't know,the fun bit of it is that we have a community to report them here so i am happy with that

there was some interest for this neck of the woods over the weekend and into Monday morning but that keeps on fluctuating between runs so who knows but that is a bit of a way yet

the year is still young for more possibilities and if the storms don't come to me,i will chase(if time is on my side)

so in a nutshell,some have done well this year so far and may it continue

and just a final note,we have been stuck in this pattern for a few weeks now with an Iberian low threatening bouts of convection from the south/southeast,i would love for the low to be situated further west in the Atlantic to draw a true plume from the south but beggers cannot be choosers

anyway,thats my rant and not a moan,still plenty of time this year to get a fix

cu for now

[Ben Sainsbury]

One post of few from the next few days as I'm very busy.

Latest AROME run modelling the current precipitation very well tonight.

[Harry]

Watching a re-run of GoT and I swear I just saw the SE sky light up. Cool 

[Jordan S]

2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

One post of few from the next few days as I'm very busy.

Latest AROME run modelling the current precipitation very well tonight.

It is doing well I’ve noticed that.

[Nick F]

Quite electrically active the cells just off coast of Romney Marsh / S Kent, skies must be lighting up nicely there

 

Edited June 6, 2018 by Nick F

[Snow Queen one]

No light show here yet

[Allseasons-Si]

Night guys

it's looking pretty active in the SE,i am looking foreward to your posts/media tomorrow

night.

[LightningLover]

4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Quite electrically active the cells just off coast of Romney Marsh / S Kent, skies must be lighting up nicely there

 

Can confirm, fairly decent (very distant) light show here in Hastings.