Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

[Andy Bown]

15 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I am holding out the smallest hope

Edit: very heavy showers moving over Reading area. Doesn’t look like they will become electrified but proves that there is potential

They formed over the London area and are heading West, presumably something to do with UHI effect.

[DIS1970]

There is a small group to the north of me, which are drifting south, similar to yesterday when one formed to the west of my location, but that died and didn't reach me.

 

Edited June 3, 2018 by DIS1970

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, DIS1970 said:

There is a small group to the north of me, which are drifting south to south-west, similar to yesterday when one formed to the west of my location, but that died and didn't reach me.

 

kicking off just east of my area, can see them from here, assuming no thunder/lightning?

[DIS1970]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

kicking off just east of my area, can see them from here, assuming no thunder/lightning?

Nah, just looks like some showers, thats it.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

14 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

They formed over the London area and are heading West, presumably something to do with UHI effect.

Read something about the upward parcels of air being accelerated by some process today (over on UKWW) don’t really understand the science but it’s made me quite hopeful there might be some scattered and sporadic lightning tonight

[Jordan S]

51 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I am holding out the smallest hope

Edit: very heavy showers moving over Reading area. Doesn’t look like they will become electrified but proves that there is potential

That’s fair enough but keep hope on a realistic level then you’ll be just fine

[alexisj9]

I don't expect the French stuff to get over, just incase anyone is watching g that lot, they'll be ground based most likely, but also they are moving wnw, so will go west of the West country most likely.

Edited June 3, 2018 by alexisj9

[chapmanslade]

Had a meaty storm here this afternoon in the Charente (after a small one this morning) This picture taken as it was arriving and left about two hours later. Formed in about 30 minutes from two discrete cells which merged into a bit of a beast leaving everywhere flooded and a lot of lightning damage.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

That’s fair enough but keep hope on a realistic level then you’ll be just fine

If nothing happens i’m not bothered at all - we’ll have another chance on weds/thurs anyway. For me it has to be the right kind of storm, and we only get one or two of those a year. Doubt any storms we have in the next few weeks will have much in the way of shear and will be those tossy pulse storms.

By the way that French stuff will never make it here. Not a chance

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 04 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 05 Jun 2018

ISSUED 20:34 UTC Sun 03 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

Isolated heavy showers with the potential for some lightning across parts of western Britain, but more especially into Ireland...

Ireland...

 

Isolated to scattered airmass thunderstorms are possible by mid-to-late afternoon across central Ireland on Monday. CAPE values in excess of 1,000 J/kg combined with moist profiles (PWAT >32mm) will lead to the potential for slow-moving thunderstorms capable of producing some localised flooding and very locally some hail to around 1cm in diameter.  Weak shear will limit updraft life-spans so showers will tend to pulse, and die away quite quickly, especially after daytime heating subsides. 

 

Western Britain (mainly Cornwall, SW Scotland)...

 

Isolated showers and perhaps an odd thunderstorm are possible in these areas, with the aforementioned Cornwall and SW Scotland being the favoured areas for sharper shower development. Compared with Ireland, mid-level profiles are drier in Britain and instability is weaker (more similar to Sunday). CAPE values of 300-600 J/kg will be more typical and any shower development will likely need to be aided by orographic effects/convergence boundaries. Like in Ireland shear remains weak, so any shower updrafts will likely be short-lived, limiting the potential for lightning. 

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-04

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

Is there any potential for big storms next week?

[Guest]

55 minutes ago, Neglectedchicken said:

Is there any potential for big storms next week?

I think at the moment it looks unlikely during the next five days.

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I think at the moment it looks unlikely during the next five days.

Yeah that was I was thinking.... below average temperatures tomorrow, low cape, no precipitation present 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, Neglectedchicken said:

Yeah that was I was thinking.... below average temperatures tomorrow, low cape, no precipitation present 

600 j/kg CAPE ain’t bad - but the lack of any shear and more importantly nothing to ‘force’ decent convection means unlikely, but not impossible.

Again, with these strange conditions we have at present nothing should be ruled out but I think until we get our jet stream back any plumes or decent spells of warm/hot weather we get will end up with these funny days of scattered short lived storms.

The sooner we get out of this weather rut the better!

That said, fingers crossed for the second half of the week for something electrical...

[Jordan S]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

If nothing happens i’m not bothered at all - we’ll have another chance on weds/thurs anyway. For me it has to be the right kind of storm, and we only get one or two of those a year. Doubt any storms we have in the next few weeks will have much in the way of shear and will be those tossy pulse storms.

By the way that French stuff will never make it here. Not a chance

That’s what I was saying I was thinking you were thinking that the French storms would move northwards and I was going to say that will definitely not happen but You already know that so didn’t need to say

[Convective]

Plenty of moonlit altocumulus out there this evening. 

[Another Kent clipper]

10 hours ago, jordan smith said:

That’s what I was saying I was thinking you were thinking that the French storms would move northwards and I was going to say that will definitely not happen but You already know that so didn’t need to say

I thought it though briefly, until I saw how far west they were heading.  I think we should all persuade our partners and families and move to France.  It will be a lot easier

[DIS1970]

1 hour ago, Another Kent clipper said:

I thought it though briefly, until I saw how far west they were heading.  I think we should all persuade our partners and families and move to France.  It will be a lot easier

I think Northern Italy would we very nice, though i think one or two may just get a little tired of the storms.

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

The jet stream is still up above Greenland and hasn't moved since last week with the same weather pattern

[Super_Uwe]

Convection starting to get going looking north towards Dartmoor, nice light pink tinge to the clouds. Fairly murky again so you can only just see the tops of the clouds. Not expecting anything too much down this way but fancy there might be a few downpours later on today!

[Azazel]

Just had a quick look - two areas of potential interest for me today for some sharp convective showers with sporadic lightning and high rainfall totals possible.

[Super_Uwe]

I can see the tops of both those beefy showers near(ish) to here - one just north of Ashburton and the other towards Callington. That's pretty good going, Callington is about 40 miles from here 

[Seasonality]

Photo I took on 30 May of a tree struck by lightning in South London. You can see the scorch marks at the top where the bolt hit and the way the force of the bolt cleaved the tree like a log splitter through well seasoned wood.

[Jordan S]

3 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Photo I took on 30 May of a tree struck by lightning in South London. You can see the scorch marks at the top where the bolt hit and the way the force of the bolt cleaved the tree like a log splitter through well seasoned wood.

Wow what a great picture

[Jordan S]

7 hours ago, Another Kent clipper said:

I thought it though briefly, until I saw how far west they were heading.  I think we should all persuade our partners and families and move to France.  It will be a lot easier

Yeah but then you’ll move and then southern England will get them all