Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

[Stephanie Starr]

[poseidon]

Can see a huge anvil over Norfolk covering 90 degs odd with towers going up all along the front of it. Also another smaller one further south. Can't believe there's so little lightning at the moment.

[Arnie Pie]

A little bit of late convecton kicking off just to the North....plenty of mid level sheer

who knows

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

Seen about 15-20 towers go up all day, unbelievable , have no idea where they went though....

[DIS1970]

Can see an anvil gone up 35/40 miles to the west of me (Wolves), those in Shrewsbury may have a brief downpour soon, if it reaches them, won't reach me as it is too late, but tomorrow miight bring one or two surprises.

Edited June 2, 2018 by DIS1970
spelling!

[TJS1998Tom]

22 minutes ago, poseidon said:

Can see a huge anvil over Norfolk covering 90 degs odd with towers going up all along the front of it. Also another smaller one further south. Can't believe there's so little lightning at the moment.

I thought as soon as the sun cleared in Lincolnshire and how the cells on the radar were looking that it would produce some great lightning but just hasn't manged on this occasion

[TJS1998Tom]

Piggy in the middle... : P

[Derecho]

5 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I thought as soon as the sun cleared in Lincolnshire and how the cells on the radar were looking that it would produce some great lightning but just hasn't manged on this occasion

I think the lack of surface/ mid level CAPE, combined with temperatures a little cooler temperatures then last weekend means the showers have lacked the extra kick they need to produce a lot of lightning. Its never always that simple, however the storms last weekend were the result of an atmosphere primed to go boom whilst this weekend doesn't quite have those conditions.

Edited June 2, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[TJS1998Tom]

Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think the lack of surface CAPE, combined with temperatures a little cooler temperatures then last weekend means the showers have lacked the extra kick they need to produce a lot of lightning. Its never always that simple. However the storms last weekend were the result of an atmosphere primed to go boom whilst this weekend doesn't quite have those conditions.

Ahhh right, that makes sense. Not had a proper storm yet but still early days with the rest of this month and July to go through 

[TJS1998Tom]

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 03 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 04 Jun 2018

ISSUED 19:38 UTC Sat 02 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

A quieter day convection-wise across the British Isles compared to the last week...

 

A ridge of higher pressure will build from the northwest across most of the British Isles with rising 500mb heights and drier mid-level air, meaning shower activity will be limited in most locations. 

 

Scotland...

 

Modest surface heating combined with orographic lift / convergence could help a few sharp showers, and perhaps an odd thunderstorm to develop across the Highlands and western parts of Scotland during the afternoon. Lighting is considered a low risk and showers will be diurnally driven. 

 

Southwestern England...

 

Weak mid-level instability drifting northeastwards across the region could help to generate a few heavy showers, although the lightning potential is considered very minimal.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-03 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

big anvil west of Stafford, anyone on here under it?

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

I just watch BBC weather forecast the week ahead and it's the same weather pattern as last week and as that if feels muggy when we get into Wednesday a front comes back up from France bring in humid and muggy are and getting heavy downpours like thunderstorms and thundery showers again but Monday and Tuesday is dry and pressure pushes back the high pressure next Wednesday and next Thursday and into next weekend but it seemed hasn't moved it's still in same place

Edited June 3, 2018 by Tom dewey likes thunder

[matty40s]

8 hours ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

I just watch BBC weather forecast the week ahead and it's the same weather pattern as last week and as that if feels muggy when we get into Wednesday a front comes back up from France bring in humid and muggy are and getting heavy downpours like thunderstorms and thundery showers again but Monday and Tuesday is dry and pressure pushes back the high pressure next Wednesday and next Thursday and into next weekend but it seemed hasn't moved it's still in same place

.....and breathe...

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

15 hours ago, Neglectedchicken said:

Seen about 15-20 towers go up all day, unbelievable , have no idea where they went though....

Try having that happen all week

[Stuart]

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 03 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 04 Jun 2018

ISSUED 10:16 UTC Sun 03 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

 

***UPDATE***

 

The ISOL risk has been extended to cover much of southern England and Wales for Sunday afternoon. Most Hi-res modules indicating the small risk of a few isolated thunderstorms developing, most particularly across parts of southeastern England (Essex/London/Kent) in response to strong daytime heating (highs in the mid-20s) and CAPE values in excess of 700 J/kg. It must be stressed that most places will stay dry, but around a 10% risk will persist through the afternoon. Dry mid-level conditions and a warm-nose at about 650mb will likely prohibit convection. 

 

 

A quieter day convection-wise across the British Isles compared to the last week...

 

A ridge of higher pressure will build from the northwest across most of the British Isles with rising 500mb heights and drier mid-level air, meaning shower activity will be limited in most locations. 

 

Scotland...

 

Modest surface heating combined with orographic lift / convergence could help a few sharp showers, and perhaps an odd thunderstorm to develop across the Highlands and western parts of Scotland during the afternoon. Lighting is considered a low risk and showers will be diurnally driven. 

 

Southwestern England...

 

Weak mid-level instability drifting northeastwards across the region could help to generate a few heavy showers, although the lightning potential is considered very minimal. 

 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-03

[poseidon]

Some very dark clouds appearing. Really hot day today.

[thetipster]

[matt111]

Doesn’t seem to be anything going on near here today but this has been to the north of here for a while now. 

Edited June 3, 2018 by matt111

[The PIT]

Well this forum should be quiet this coming work week. A week convergence line is building some big clouds for us but not enough warmth to trigger anything.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

This evening could provide some interesting developments. Huge storms just the other side of the channel, very high temps here in Surrey, plus really clear air and the cumulus have a very defined edge to them.

An upgrade (of sorts) to CW this afternoon putting pretty much the whole of southern England in the picture for a (admittedly very low) chance of something electrical.

Nevertheless it’s a good reason to keep one wary eye on the radar for the next couple of hours... these slack flow conditions can be rather unpredictable

[Another Kent clipper]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

This evening could provide some interesting developments. Huge storms just the other side of the channel, very high temps here in Surrey, plus really clear air and the cumulus have a very defined edge to them.

An upgrade (of sorts) to CW this afternoon putting pretty much the whole of southern England in the picture for a (admittedly very low) chance of something electrical.

Nevertheless it’s a good reason to keep one wary eye on the radar for the next couple of hours... these slack flow conditions can be rather unpredictable

After instilling closure into myself over the prospect of no convection for the next two weeks, your optimism has infected me with hope.  I too thought the same thing about the current glub in France

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 minutes ago, Another Kent clipper said:

After instilling closure into myself over the prospect of no convection for the next two weeks, your optimism has infected me with hope.  I too thought the same thing about the current glub in France

 

Glad to be of service

The darkest looking skies are moving away west, but seems like everyone has their windows wide open down our street and it’s really warm and still out.

This reminds me of when I was little and we ended up having big storms afterwards - same kind of feeling.

[Jordan S]

3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Glad to be of service

The darkest looking skies are moving away west, but seems like everyone has their windows wide open down our street and it’s really warm and still out.

This reminds me of when I was little and we ended up having big storms afterwards - same kind of feeling.

So your basically saying you are thinking storms may happen tonight? 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

12 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

So your basically saying you are thinking storms may happen tonight? 

I am holding out the smallest hope

Edit: very heavy showers moving over Reading area. Doesn’t look like they will become electrified but proves that there is potential

Edited June 3, 2018 by Flash bang flash bang etc