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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

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A shiny new thread for a new month and a new season. For some it has been a fantastic start the 2018 storm chase season with some strong thunderstorms around to end the month of May and the meteorological spring. Others have not been so fortunate if it is storms you are wanting. If you want to have a good old rant about the lack of storms then please check into the No Storms Club here:

The old discussion is here - 155 pages in less than 2 weeks!

Any talk about European storms that are staying in Europe and not coming here needs to go into here

Please keep it friendly In here and good luck to all who want a storm during the upcoming summer.

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Looking forward to today’s potential.

Why, you may ask?

Well because this week the areas on the edges of risk zones seem to be fairing well (don’t ask me why - just an observation).

Today the risk zone is large - mathematically this makes the circumference of that area particularly big, so a good chance for a fair few places (if you agree with my strange logic, that is 😉).

Also because, why not - we could have a red severe warning this week and it would likely bring us nothing but stratus cloud so today it seems more reasonable to expect something.

fingers crossed

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Posted (edited)

Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 01 Jun 2018 07:00 to Sat 02 Jun 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 01 Jun 2018 07:23
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

A level 1 is issued for parts of Belgium, France, SW Germany, parts of England and Ireland mainly for excessive convective precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

An ill-defined omage pattern covers the European sector. Between a deep polar trough over W Russia and cut-off lows over the north-central Atlantic and Portugal, a broad and shallow ridge stretches from the central Mediterranean region into Scandinavia. Near the surface, an anticyclone moves from Belarus into the Ukraine, while pressure gradients are weak everywhere else. Warm and moist air remains in place across wide areas of the continent.

... Belgium, W and S Germany, Switzerland, France, Spain, Portugal, Uk, Ireland ...

Slightly cooler but still moist air is present behind the main convergence zone. Around 500 J/kg of CAPE will form after some hours of daytime heating. Scattered, disorganized afternoon storms pose a risk of isolated flash floods. Slightly enhanced deep-layer shear is present (1) beneath a further weakening jet-streak from S Germany into Belgium and (2) in N Spain ahead of the Portuguese cut-off low. Marginally large hail is not ruled out in these areas. Particularly low cloud bases over the British Isles indicate a possibility of one or two non-supercellular tornadoes, in particular if sea breeze fronts move some distance inland. the Ukraine, while pressure gradients are weak everywhere else. Warm and moist air remains in place across wide areas of the continent.

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2018060206_201806010723_2_stormforecast.xml

Edited by Summer Sun
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Yikes. Ta for that.

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Posted (edited)

I know it’s IMBY but this sort of thing is just annoying me now:

“On both days there's the chance of an isolated shower here or there, but not on the scale that we've seen this week”

Not as much severe dullness and grey cloud muck? Ok good

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Posted (edited)

The storm potential today feels very similar to yesterday and hence why I believe ConvectiveWeather have only gone with a Slight over a Moderate.

Obviously today as it appears CAPE values aren't quite to the same level as yesterday but only marginally lower (in & around slightly <1000J/kg). We also see a basic level of DLS again of up to 30knts from North England to Southern Scotland. Yesterday we saw the strongest and longer living storms across much of Oxford and into the Midlands, these storms were marginally more organised because of the additional DLS which many other didn't have. 

Therefore as you see below, I favour much of the far North of England into Southern Scotland as my location of interest today. We already have a small cumulus field developed towards Edinburgh due to a good amount of surface heating already. May possibly see a greater frequency of lightning today compared to yesterday too.

182396190_MUCAPE.thumb.png.882eb4dc0e9649743ee0bf01dff1c828.pngDLS.thumb.png.bee5a16043b328011890b38e4b8df0d5.png

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 01 Jun 2018 07:00 to Sat 02 Jun 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 01 Jun 2018 07:23
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

A level 1 is issued for parts of Belgium, France, SW Germany, parts of England and Ireland mainly for excessive convective precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

An ill-defined omage pattern covers the European sector. Between a deep polar trough over W Russia and cut-off lows over the north-central Atlantic and Portugal, a broad and shallow ridge stretches from the central Mediterranean region into Scandinavia. Near the surface, an anticyclone moves from Belarus into the Ukraine, while pressure gradients are weak everywhere else. Warm and moist air remains in place across wide areas of the continent.

... Belgium, W and S Germany, Switzerland, France, Spain, Portugal, Uk, Ireland ...

Slightly cooler but still moist air is present behind the main convergence zone. Around 500 J/kg of CAPE will form after some hours of daytime heating. Scattered, disorganized afternoon storms pose a risk of isolated flash floods. Slightly enhanced deep-layer shear is present (1) beneath a further weakening jet-streak from S Germany into Belgium and (2) in N Spain ahead of the Portuguese cut-off low. Marginally large hail is not ruled out in these areas. Particularly low cloud bases over the British Isles indicate a possibility of one or two non-supercellular tornadoes, in particular if sea breeze fronts move some distance inland. the Ukraine, while pressure gradients are weak everywhere else. Warm and moist air remains in place across wide areas of the continent.

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&amp;fcstfile=2018060206_201806010723_2_stormforecast.xml

 Vvmight be worth a chase, read the bit specific to the UK. To big an area probably though.

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Maximum insolation going on here. 21.8°C. Already seen much more sun than yesterday. 

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Update to weather warning shows a slightly greater likelihood now in the warning matrix...I must admit that it definitely feels much more humid today, and more sun/heat already than yesterday too (East Lancashire). I hope it goes bang later! Haven't seen/heard anything decent round these parts since 26/7/17! Good luck everyone, stay safe!

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Just about anywhere could catch something today so my map looks a little like a mosaic, but my untrained eye is drawn to 3 areas I think could perhaps see something a little more intense.

weather010618.jpg

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Just about anywhere could catch something today so my map looks a little like a mosaic, but my untrained eye is drawn to 3 areas I think could perhaps see something a little more intense.

weather010618.jpg

I'm intrigued to why you think parts of the West Country/Wiltshire into CS England are also at a higher risk of storms compared to other areas, not saying you're wrong at all just interested!😀 

Would agree with your other two risk areas though!

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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Met Office have extended the warnings slightly further east into the East Midlands. However the greatest risk is further north and west today. I won't be chasing as I can't take another half day off work and I am finally burnt out after getting home last night at 2am.

I have had my storm fix now for a bit 😊

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Clear window of cloud materialising in a band from Folkestone up toward Hereford. On satellite wondering if this looks like a CZ developing?

I’m no expert so forgive my novice observations. Think some solar heating could make things ripe in an hour or two?

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Warning has changed locally, was 70% chance of a t'storm, now a 30% chance of light rain, hardly warrants a warning.

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8 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I'm intrigued to why you think parts of the West Country/Wiltshire into CS England are also at a higher risk of storms compared to other areas, not saying you're wrong at all just interested!😀 

Would agree with your other two risk areas though!

I think Arpege was showing a splodge of heavier precip over the area as was GFS - only had a chance to quickly look - think the main thrust of the action will be Western Scotland - I forgot to include Ireland in my map but there could be some meaty storms over there today. My "forecasts" are completely rank amateur and experimental bear in mind so i'm just seeing how they match up should anything transpire. Did OK yesterday with the Oxford area!

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26 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Clear window of cloud materialising in a band from Folkestone up toward Hereford. On satellite wondering if this looks like a CZ developing?

I’m no expert so forgive my novice observations. Think some solar heating could make things ripe in an hour or two?

“Clear window of cloud” doesn’t make sense sorry I mean clear window of SKY

Lol

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Honestly have no hope for intense thunderstorms today after yesterdays occurrence, however for the east Saturday is looking quite good :D

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It's Southern Scotland's chance to shine today. They have a greater risk potential because of the surface heating and packed showers tracking northwards.

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Posted (edited)

I think some sporadic convective showers and thunderstorms is a reasonable possibility  for the Greater London area, at least until about 3/4pm

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Wiltshire and Dorset and Somerset and Gloucestershire and other parts of the best country are not in the weather warning anymore and I looked at the rainfall map there's hardly any showers in the South West today is not much happening

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I think there's going to be an amber warning for southern Scotland later and east Anglia for tomorrow, the rain is looking continuously intense for several hours..

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