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nsrobins

Stormchase 2018 - Chase day 19 - SW NE/NE CO

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I’ll kick this one into life as I’m up early to get the 300miles into position. Initiation likely quite early today with virtually no CIN on the upslope shelf of far NE CO around 20Z. A discrete storm surviving until 22Z may take advantage of a decent 850mb flow that develops far SW NE (according to HRRR) so good structure is possible. Tor risk limited by high spreads (low dp - 53F is the best I can find), but you never know. 

Our conditions update target: St Francis, KS

Edit: dps already 55F in target area so maybe HRRR being a little tight on it’s values

Edited by nsrobins
Update

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Off topic, this is from the SPC for Florida today:

‘supporting a threat for mini supercells ‘

Oh dear - the degenerative ‘mini’ disease is spreading into high places 😥

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Goodland, KS. Dps already 65F here which is way above modelled and a really decent SE surface wind. Still think initial sweet spot is far NE CO so we’re shifting to Burlington, CO shortly to re-assess.

To avoid confusion we are not part of the NWx team but we’re normally not too far from each other.

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The team were staying overnight in Ogallala but not sure where they are today.  Internet access must patchy for them .

Tom

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Team update :   Their target is La Grange, Wyoming. 

Temps in that area 80F   Dewpoints  60F   winds from the NNE 13 mph. 

Watch this space. 

 

Tom 

Edited by Tom Lynch

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John Finney has just updated my on the teams location 

They are the blue dot I guess travelling westwards 

1311877735_LaGrange1.thumb.png.6a4f4b85b52fd8449eeff1e6c61cd824.png

One of Johns phone photos from today 

866002516_LaGrange2.thumb.jpg.96f05ca8a08d925786c28704904ec4b6.jpg

Tom

 

Edited by Tom Lynch

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Ok well severe storms are in progress.

here is a radar of the location of some of those storms.

901193205_lagrange3.thumb.png.6b4f94962e04395f832ac7c9233b492b.png

 

 

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Confirmed tornado   ahead of the team     moving at 20 mph   thats the tornado not the team 

1629648174_lagrange5.thumb.png.a58c3e1f3d4688dc097eb00209018ad0.png

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Distances are vast out there and i think the location of the tornado is a tad out of reach at the moment. 

1752440551_lagrange6.thumb.png.053818003cc9d40688da5e9c6062ea54.png

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The team are on another storm which may also produce a tornado near Ogalala 

 

Tom

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it would look like the team have managed to intercept the tornadic storm.  see photos from John Finneys phone.

 

la grange T1.png

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7 hours ago, Tom Lynch said:

it would look like the team have managed to intercept the tornadic storm.  see photos from John Finneys phone.

 

la grange T1.png

Thats not johns phone! that was from twitter!

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1 hour ago, Crashlanding said:

Thats not johns phone! that was from twitter!

Oh well i dont do twitter i leave that to the presidential type of person 

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