South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 21/05/2018 Onwards

[Guest]

Quick Update and Forecast:

As many of you will know we have a very narrow window and even then many will not even see sleet or wet snow.  The next 12 to 15 hours will be worth monitoring. I'll add to the charts I posted a couple of hours ago.

Recent NetWx radar shows some seeing a sleety mix.  Evaporative cooling may be possible for anyone seeing a period of an hour of two of steady cold rain in light winds.  Elevation will be critical.

                     Live temps                                                   Live Winds                                              Live Pressure

      

Temps could well drop just about lower enough this evening and overnight.  Winds are off-shore, light and from the east-north-east = okay. 

   Pressure 24 hours to 1633 Tues                       Lowest  temps 0700 Wed                           Temps 1300 Wed

      

Winds are likely to veer to the south-east tomorrow morning and that will bring less cold air in and for those of us near the coast and further south-west we'll see the rise before anyone else. 

              Snow  accumulation                           Precipitation accumulation                                        SSTs                                                 Ground temps

        

The snow accumulation forecast chart (always unreliable) is close to the maximum extent expected. Main problem is that most of us will stay practically dry or just seeing tiny amounts of any type of precipitation.  Most of any action in the next 12+ hours may well be further north.  The rain moving in from the south is associated with the incoming less cold air. When winds switch to the south east and become onshore - we have those high SSTs to moderate the flow further. Ground temps will just about be low enough around dawn for slushy deposits in any heavier wintry outbreaks.

Now things can pop up out of anywhere and I like the look of Karl's @karlos1983 chart showing that mini cyclogenesis spinning out from the north-west France coast. Definitely one to monitor during the next 3 to 6 hours. So, we cannot rule out a little whiteness almost anywhere but so much needs to fall into place just for that. 

David  

Edited November 20, 2018 by Guest
check charts and correct typos

[A.J]

OK folks, it's that time of year again when NW goes 'cliche' crazy...............So with that in mind, it's eyes down and time to play NetWeather Cliche Bingo !!!

 

[matt111]

9 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

OK folks, it's that time of year again when NW goes 'cliche' crazy...............So with that in mind, it's eyes down and time to play NetWeather Cliche Bingo !!!

 

If we'd started before today we'd already have a few.

[Frosty hollows]

Oh God. I've already done kudos to ukmo

[Frosty hollows]

@Bring Back1962-63 For the sake of our mobile viewers, haven't quoted your post, but welcome back and thank you for your very valuable input

[Leon1]

My temperature hasn't dropped for the last half hour, it needs to drop a degree or two more for any chance of sleet or snow.

[Dorsetbred]

2 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

My temperature hasn't dropped for the last half hour, it needs to drop a degree or two more for any chance of sleet or snow.

Hmm, now down to 2.0 °C and a DP of 0.9 °C here on the coast..

Edited November 20, 2018 by Dorsetbred

[matt111]

2.9°C here with a DP of 2.0°C as it's been for nearly an hour now. 

[Leon1]

1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:

Hmm, now down to 2.0 °C and a DP of 0.9 °C here on the coast..

Wow! Temp still 4.6c here, wait it's dropping now I think.

[jethro]

Evening, despite the elevation here it's currently drizzling but I refuse to accept this post large teapot malarkey, 600ft is still 600ft and height will make a difference tonight. Local forecasters say sleet at best but the METO says snow and I saw Big Steve the Ice Destroyer snow plough out gritting on my way home from work. I maintain, cash strapped councils won't invest that much money without good cause, they know another 1962/63 or 47 is coming. Follow the money and believe I say, in Steve we trust to plough the Mendips clear when the deep, deep drifts come

 

 

Large teapot...grrrrrrrr.

Edited November 20, 2018 by jethro
post even larger teapot

[Leon1]

Precipitation forming East of London and the channel, brings back memories of 17th March this year, the exact same thing happened and we had snow cover in the morning (my profile pic!)  

[CheesepuffScott]

8 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Precipitation forming East of London and the channel, brings back memories of 17th March this year, the exact same thing happened and we had snow cover in the morning (my profile pic!)  

Reminds me I need to change my profile picture to suit the season (nearly), so many good BFTE and Mini Beast photos to choose from

[Leon1]

1 minute ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Reminds me I need to change my profile picture to suit the season (nearly), so many good BFTE and Mini Beast photos to choose from

Lol I never changed mine!

[ThundersnowDays]

I'd say anyone over 200m should be looking out for snow now. Definitely a chance tonight

[jethro]

1 minute ago, ThundersnowDays said:

I'd say anyone over 200m should be looking out for snow now. Definitely a chance tonight

I'll be doing a happy dance if me and my big hill turn white tonight.

[matt111]

Don't think my 32m will cut it. Not to mention probably being too far south anyway. 

[lettice]

Temp here has been stuck at 3.7c for an hour now, DP of 2.1c

[Frosty hollows]

That ppn has my name on it and in 2 hours it'll be cold enough. And I have a lamp post outside my bedroom window and space for a comfy chair and a gin.  

Bring it on, I say! 

 

[Leon1]

5 minutes ago, lettice said:

Temp here has been stuck at 3.7c for an hour now, DP of 2.1c

Can everybody please pray for me and @lettice for out temps to go down.

3 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

That ppn has my name on it and in 2 hours it'll be cold enough. And I have a lamp post outside my bedroom window and space for a comfy chair and a gin.  

Bring it on, I say! 

 

That ppn has my name on it too but I'm scared it won't be cold! TBF I said this in the Mini Beast and then woke up the next morning to 10cm of snow. 

[Mapantz]

Temp down to 2.3°C here after a high of 6.7°C. 1.6mm of rain falling as well.

[matt111]

@Leon1 

It's just gone down to 2.8°C here after being stuck at 2.9°C for ages. 

Edited November 20, 2018 by matt111

[Nights King]

18 minutes ago, jethro said:

I'll be doing a happy dance if me and my big hill turn white tonight.

Keep me posted. I'm resisting urge to go home because if risk of a few flakes. Personal growth one thinks... 

I'll be annoyed if I miss it though! 

[Frosty hollows]

T 3.1, DP2

Am I tempting fate going out in a bit. You know, in case of snow drifts

[CheesepuffScott]

28 minutes ago, ThundersnowDays said:

I'd say anyone over 200m should be looking out for snow now. Definitely a chance tonight

Damn me at 110 metres

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

itv west showed a video of it snowing in some place in some place in Dorset cerne abbas