South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 21/05/2018 Onwards

[Man With Beard]

Morning all!

Well it's snow watch time again. 

This is so IMBY so thought best not to post in the MOD thread - in fact, it's by far the most IMBY post I think I'll ever write, as it shows Portsmouth as the only spot in the entire country with snow cover (aside mountain peaks) first thing tomorrow morning. Would be the first and last time if it happened!!

 

[lettice]

Got down to 4.4c at midnight but then drifted up to 5c at 6am.
Dropped again to 4.8c now.
Dry here, 14-18mph NE wind, many 25 mph gusts.
1007.6 hPa and falling.

[karlos1983]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Morning all!

Well it's snow watch time again. 

This is so IMBY so thought best not to post in the MOD thread - in fact, it's by far the most IMBY post I think I'll ever write, as it shows Portsmouth as the only spot in the entire country with snow cover (aside mountain peaks) first thing tomorrow morning. Would be the first and last time if it happened!!

 

Hi MWB

Hirlam (AKA short timeframe model god!) showing this up quite nicely. I fact a few aces tomorrow morning could see wintry precipitation falling for a while! 

Edited November 20, 2018 by karlos1983

[Man With Beard]

36 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Hi MWB

Hirlam (AKA short timeframe model god!) showing this up quite nicely. I fact a few aces tomorrow morning could see wintry precipitation falling for a while! 

Interesting! Not expecting much if anything to be honest but definitely going to be worth a lamppost watch anywhere from Dartmoor through Somerset/Wiltshire/Dorset/Hampshire!

What's interesting though is that the snow chances for us seem dependent on torrential heavy showers across the channel maintaining intensity as they make landfall. Which suggests that, if the snowfall threshold is reached (what would you say, 20% chance??), it will probably be short lived but very heavy!

N Somerset coast and Bristol Channel actually looking like good spots for a flurry on a number of models (for tomorrow morning).

[matt111]

After a low of 3.8°C last night, it’s been dull and cold today do far. 5.6°C

[karlos1983]

11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Interesting! Not expecting much if anything to be honest but definitely going to be worth a lamppost watch anywhere from Dartmoor through Somerset/Wiltshire/Dorset/Hampshire!

What's interesting though is that the snow chances for us seem dependent on torrential heavy showers across the channel maintaining intensity as they make landfall. Which suggests that, if the snowfall threshold is reached (what would you say, 20% chance??), it will probably be short lived but very heavy!

N Somerset coast and Bristol Channel actually looking like good spots for a flurry on a number of models (for tomorrow morning).

Yep, looks like evaporative cooling will be required. It’s just nice to see in November.

FWIW, i don't think our next cold chance will appear now until Mid December, contrary to what a few are musing in the Hunt for cold thread. Not sure about this 48-72 he climb down at all! Seems more hopeful than insightful!

[Man With Beard]

36 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yep, looks like evaporative cooling will be required. It’s just nice to see in November.

FWIW, i don't think our next cold chance will appear now until Mid December, contrary to what a few are musing in the Hunt for cold thread. Not sure about this 48-72 he climb down at all! Seems more hopeful than insightful!

And I'm with you on this one too, there seemed like there might be a window early next week but the backtrack needed looks too big now - I'm pretty convinced we'll see a pulse of Swlies in the D10/D15 period which will wipe out cold chances for the first week of December

All seems very typical of late November cold attempts - whenever it doesn't quite cut the mustard, it often conspires that December goes largely mild (as the failed cold attempt is an indication that the vortex is on the way up) - it's only when we get a very strong and lasting cold pattern at this time of year that early December seems to follow suit.

But maybe this year will buck that trend, trends are there to be broken eh! 

[Mapantz]

The possibility of some hefty showers developing and moving in to Southern counties tomorrow afternoon. IoW and West would be a shout. Low parameters for thunder, but an outside chance. Certainly some hail if the showers are intense enough.

A shallow low to the South moving a small trough in.

Could be fun!

[Frosty hollows]

2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Hi MWB

Hirlam (AKA short timeframe model god!) showing this up quite nicely. I fact a few aces tomorrow morning could see wintry precipitation falling for a while! 

I think us in the East of the region might see some before the day is out...

[Guest]

This will be marginal at best but colder air is drifting into the south-east and it's snowing in Paris and much of northern France. If it starts spreading our way, I'll be back later. Here are some live charts and gif images.

         24 hour temps to 1300 Tues                                  Live Radar                                                 Live radar

          

 

                           Live Sat                                                    Live Sat                                    24 hour Dew Points to 1300

       

David  

 

Edited November 20, 2018 by Guest

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

This will be marginal at best but colder air is drifting into the south-east and it's snowing in Paris and much of northern France. If it starts spreading our way, I'll be back later. Here are some live charts and gif images.

          

 

       

David  

 

 

 

 

 

You know when “Sir David” starts posting things are getting interesting

thanks David, that saves me going looking for those links

 

Edited November 20, 2018 by karlos1983

[matt111]

It’s been raining on and off for the last hour here and the temperatures dropped to 3.5°C. ? 

Edited November 20, 2018 by matt111

[Azazel]

Absolutely dank out there.

[karlos1983]

Just popped up to the new forest 300fasl

wintery element to the weather, ice pellets falling as I type , 3c 

[Nights King]

Question is is it worth me spending my night on Mendip??  Or do I just stay at other half's in Bradford? 

[festivalking]

22 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Question is is it worth me spending my night on Mendip??  Or do I just stay at other half's in Bradford? 

Depends whats on offer.......in either place 

[karlos1983]

49 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Question is is it worth me spending my night on Mendip??  Or do I just stay at other half's in Bradford? 

If you’re heading to Bradford you may want to leave soon.... bit of a trek

[MP-R]

Imagine if it were late December or January. Snow would be starting very soon!

[Leon1]

METO and google are showing rain and snow for me this evening and tonight so I'm actually looking forward to it!

[Azazel]

I swear I read last week or at the weekend that this week would bring much colder air but dry and bright conditions? It's been nothing but ghastly so far.

[Nights King]

21 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

If you’re heading to Bradford you may want to leave soon.... bit of a trek

Bradford upon Avon. 

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Bradford upon Avon. 

 

anyone spotted this little fella/Sheila/door handle off the Sussex coast developing? 

Edited November 20, 2018 by karlos1983
Didn’t want to come across as gender specific ?

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, festivalking said:

Depends whats on offer.......in either place 

[Frosty hollows]

Temp dropping outside...gone from 4.3 to 3.8 ( yes, I know Im clutching at straws here) in past 40 mins or so. DP 2C. Light rain atm

[CheesepuffScott]

Pretty sure I just saw some sleet mixed in with the rain