South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 21/05/2018 Onwards

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, Andy Bown said:

Come on people our regional thread is almost always positive and happy. Surely there’s no need to post about other members as some have this morning.

It is if they are spoiling the experience for others and not allowing them to participate. 

Anyway. Rant over

[matt111]

Unexpectedly it’s brightened up a bit for the time being at least, still cloudy but it’s allowing the sun through. 13.6°C

Edited November 15, 2018 by matt111

[CheesepuffScott]

Been quite cloudy all day apart from some sunshine around lunch time. Mild nonetheless

[matt111]

Seemed strange with it feeling springlike while the sun was setting at 4pm. Clouded over again now after a brighter than expected afternoon. Reached 13.8°C

[Bobafet]

Why had the MAD thread turned into the I know better than you thread? Like children in Kindergarten!!

The weather has been misty and overcast here today and still a relatively mild 13c!

make the most of it the cold is coming!

[matt111]

6 minutes ago, Bobafet said:

Why had the MAD thread turned into the I know better than you thread? Like children in Kindergarten!!

Well mostly it’s ok but some in there would rather say I told you so when things go wrong, and on this occasion nothings really gone wrong at all. It’s a shame as it’s been a decent thread since it was started. 

[Mapantz]

Good afternoon! Well, what a dreary day that was.. Temp reached 14.3°C.

[Bobafet]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Good afternoon! Well, what a dreary day that was.. Temp reached 14.3°C.

I have been in your neck of the woods today training and dreary it definitely has been!!!!

[Leon1]

Bored of this weather now, so murky and stuffy. Yuck! Looking forward to the cold and crisp days next week. Things have downgraded slightly on the runs this evening but why is this one person (naming no names) saying 'I told you so' and 'I was right' like it's not a competition. We all want cold and people are trying to bring peoples spirits down because some people are excited for it. ECMWF will probably bring out a corker tonight and the MAD thread will just fall apart even more! 

[Leon1]

"Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Nov 2018 to Thursday 29 Nov 2018:

For much of next week it looks mostly cloudy with the best of the brighter spells in the west. Showers are possible, mainly in the east, and these could turn wintry over hills. It will be cold, especially in the south, with this accentuated by the brisk wind. Night frosts are likely and could become widespread at times. Towards the end of the week there is a chance of outbreaks of rain and hill snow affecting many areas at times, particularly in the south. Similar conditions will probably continue into the following weekend and the last week of November. There is also an increasing chance of snow falling to lower levels towards the end of November, mainly in the north and east.

UK Outlook for Friday 30 Nov 2018 to Friday 14 Dec 2018:

This period is likely to begin with a continuation of cold conditions. The best of any sunshine is likely in the west with generally cloudier skies in the east. There is a continued chance of showers for all areas with snow over the hills, mainly in the east and north. More organised areas of rain and hill snow could affect many areas at times, and there is a low risk of snow to low levels. Confidence is currently low towards the middle of December. However, there is an increased chance of less cold conditions arriving as weather systems moving in from the Atlantic."

 

 

Looking great from the Met Office!

[matt111]

14 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

"Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Nov 2018 to Thursday 29 Nov 2018:

For much of next week it looks mostly cloudy with the best of the brighter spells in the west. Showers are possible, mainly in the east, and these could turn wintry over hills. It will be cold, especially in the south, with this accentuated by the brisk wind. Night frosts are likely and could become widespread at times. Towards the end of the week there is a chance of outbreaks of rain and hill snow affecting many areas at times, particularly in the south. Similar conditions will probably continue into the following weekend and the last week of November. There is also an increasing chance of snow falling to lower levels towards the end of November, mainly in the north and east south and west.

UK Outlook for Friday 30 Nov 2018 to Friday 14 Dec 2018:

This period is likely to begin with a continuation of cold conditions. The best of any sunshine is likely in the west with generally cloudier skies in the east. There is a continued chance of showers for all areas with snow over the hills, mainly in the east and north. More organised areas of rain and hill snow could affect many areas at times, and there is a low risk of snow to low levels. Confidence is currently low towards the middle of December. However, there is an increased chance of less cold conditions arriving as weather systems moving in from the Atlantic."

 

 

Looking great from the Met Office!

Just made a few changes to that. This is what I'd call great.

Edited November 15, 2018 by matt111

[Leon1]

14 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Just made a few changes to that. This is what I'd call great.

Oh yeah that's actually much better! 

[Dave Kightley]

Quite a period of below average temperatures on the way!! One of the hottest summerson record to the coldest winter would be mad! This winter mainly because of lack of expert input so far I'm not sure what is likely to happen! Usually you have an outline what to expect so waiting until more forecasts  appear

Edited November 15, 2018 by Dave Kightley

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, Bobafet said:

I have been in your neck of the woods today training and dreary it definitely has been!!!!

It's drizzling ever so slightly now.

I'm one of those who prefers the rain rather than what we had today. lol

[Lyn-M]

There is now heavy drizzle here but no indication of it on the radar.  Visibility better now than an hour ago, can see the lights of Sherborne, about 2 miles as the crow flies.

[Dorsetbred]

Same here after a very misty day, where the sea mist could bee seen churning up Richmond Hill in Bournemouth, tonight we have drizzle..Low cloud but the earlier mist lifted around 2pm.

[Leon1]

It has been a murky day. The John Lewis Christmas Advert lifted my spirits though, I think it's very touching seeing as I play the piano.  

[CheesepuffScott]

Tomorrow doesn't look much better with mist and low cloud hanging around for much of the day. Fingers crossed for some brighter interludes

[matt111]

No drizzle here but yet again it's a very mild night, currently 12.6°C. Only one night in the last week has got below double figures and that only just managed that at 9.8°C. 

[CheesepuffScott]

Misty and we had some drizzle around 10 minutes ago. Mild though at 12C

[matt111]

Dull, damp and mild with drizzle on and off. 12.4°C 

[Nights King]

Enjoy the mild dross it may be the last we see for a while 

[Mapantz]

Depressing once again. Currently 13.2°C

I've just had fun putting a flea tablet down my cats throat. 

[jy]

Well done Mapantz,i would pay good money to see anyone attempt to put anything other than Dreamie bikkies down my cat Big Teds throat,deranged doesn't do him justice lol

[Mike Poole]

On 14 November 2018 at 21:42, Polar Bear said:

One thing is bugging me. I work in transport planning and we have a modelling team. Same principles as weather modelling, and diff models predict forecasts etc on a network etc. 

Whenever a model is re run with a new scenario or data  the output is an update run. It is never an upgrade no matter how good the data is going on. So why every time there is a new run or a comparison is it called an upgrade? Or is it the upgrade just the opinion of the viewer?

Odd post I know, am sorry. Just curious. 

I think it's because the weather is a chaotic system, whereas most other areas where mathematical models are used, certainly the example you quote, are not.  This means that very small changes in input data can lead to huge differences days down the line.

So for those who look at the model output days ahead, like me,  it means that massive swings in outcome are possible.  Whether they are interpreted as upgrades or downgrades will depend entirely on the weather preference of the viewer, though, as you say!