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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 21/05/2018 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
Just now, Frosty hollows said:

I'm not the only person who's been affected.  There will be plenty of people needing assistance from the fire services across Berks/ Oxon/Wilts from the emergency services  ( the warnings are also to help them plan too). Just because something didn't happen to you doesn't mean it didn't happen.

We are saying that the warning should have been in a smaller area and more towards your area and the areas affected.

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Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
1 minute ago, Frosty hollows said:

I'm not the only person who's been affected.  There will be plenty of people needing assistance from the fire services across Berks/ Oxon/Wilts from the emergency services  ( the warnings are also to help them plan too). Just because something didn't happen to you doesn't mean it didn't happen.

No one is denying it didn’t happen or isn’t happening, I can see that by looking at the radar. It’s just the amber warning covers such a large area that has upto now has seen sweet FA.

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Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

Couple of heavy downpours turned the guttering into waterfalls in the last half an hour   

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Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
9 minutes ago, bathweatherwatcher said:

No one is denying it didn’t happen or isn’t happening, I can see that by looking at the radar. It’s just the amber warning covers such a large area that has upto now has seen sweet FA.

It was hard to pinpoint exactly where things were going to kick off and it was further east than anticipated. If you use the rail worth noting Didcot station is under water and this will affect you guys further west.

I wouldn't call it a bust though.  Tnis developed from 2 innocuous looking cells which merged to generate a bit of a beast in less than an hour. 

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Posted
  • Location: Coopers Edge, Gloucester
  • Location: Coopers Edge, Gloucester

Seeing occasional flashes of lightning to my west here in Gloucester and it absolutely smashed it down with rain not long ago. Can't work out why I'm seeing flashes to the west when I thought everything was coming this way from the east but I'll take it lol 

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

Valid point frosty, these warnings aren’t just for general folk on where you have a potential for a light show, rumble grimblr and flooded gardens, but to help emergency and other vulnerable care services plan in the event the potential comes to full realisation I’m that area. Seems Metoffice have done a Stirling job from some of the reports coming in. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Where's the fog warning?

This is some of the thickest fog I have seen here.

Screenshot_2018-05-31-22-54-23.thumb.png.7889c35caaaa6a70fce69923cee5ee03.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ampney Crucis, Nr. Cirencester
  • Location: Ampney Crucis, Nr. Cirencester

Torrential rain and plenty of T&L, I was amazed how little Lightning actually showed on lightning maps, I had an empty rain gauge at 4pm today and checked it just now and have had 36mm so far. Went out and chased for an hour, Stow on the World, that storm seemed to drift over towards Cheltenham/Gloucester way so we came home, it was still flashing away 10 mins ago. The roads were horrendous where heavier rain was encountered.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I've just added this; https://warehamwx.co.uk/radar.htm

They allow you to embed it in to your own website, which is nice. Always difficult to find something like that without emailing them and hoping they give permission.

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Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset

Both Amber and yellow warnings cancelled an hour ago which is sensible and says a lot.

Not the best bit of forecasting on this occasion by the Met Office, something those in Oxfordshire and the Cotswolds will totally disagree with I know but a very small area compared to the vast area that the Amber warning was issued for. How can these warnings be taken seriously when nothing happens and how did we cope years ago without them?

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury
8 hours ago, Leon1 said:

We are saying that the warning should have been in a smaller area and more towards your area and the areas affected.

So it seems, from, the should have, could have metoffice scrutiny committee. ??

Have you heard of William Blake? He wrote a very famous quote. Astute and worth remembering sometimes in retrospective moments. 

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An extremely foggy morning to start summer. Looks as though the fog and low cloud will linger most of the day, in fact despite the weekend forecast looking great I think low cloud and fog will once again be greater than forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire

The sun is actually out here the first time in about a week, due to cloudy skies, it's almost blinding compared to what I've been used to.

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Posted
  • Location: E.Devon, nr Colyton
  • Location: E.Devon, nr Colyton

Fog and 15c here. Humidity high.

In my view, the Met Office have lost a certain amount of credibility in the past year or so. Losing the BBC contract will have meant a dramatic revenue reduction. Senior management will be trying to win new business by ensuring that the Met Office remains in the public domain and is high profile. Hence the ridiculous stream of warnings they produce with 'danger to life' BS etc for what is normal every day weather. They can justify as saying they were being prudent, and there is less outrage if the weather is better than predicted! However, there is a chance that the public will become immune to these warnings (crying wolf fable) and end up ignoring warnings for  a genuinely dangerous weather event such as ex-Hurricanes and the BFTE etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire

It wasn't normal every day weather though was it? Granted the warning area was wider than need be, but I have only known my local station to flood twice  due to flash flooding. My own street was impassable for a while....again rare. The volume of rain that fell in a short period of time was so intense I couldn't see the end of my garden. As it shifted to my north it actually increased in intensity. These events are very local and, yes, it is hard to imagine a town a few miles away where homes are being pumped out when you've seen nothing, but it happened and that's why the warnings were issued and rightly so.

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

So let me see, yup the calendar says June 1st, looking outside suggests it's late October, thick fog from overnight is now beginning to lift more into miSt.  Temperature 15.8C.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

I personally think the Met Office issued the Amber warning far too early, as they primarily based their risk zone on models and not as the situation was evolving.

The Amber warning placed over the Midlands a few days ago, was placed after the storms formed and merged for longer spells of rain. That being said here in South Bristol, we weren’t under the majority of showers and had some very torrential rain at times so I’m not complaining just my opinion.

I wonder what today provides...

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19 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I personally think the Met Office issued the Amber warning far too early, as they primarily based their risk zone on models and not as the situation was evolving.

The Amber warning placed over the Midlands a few days ago, was placed after the storms formed and merged for longer spells of rain. That being said here in South Bristol, we weren’t under the majority of showers and had some very torrential rain at times so I’m not complaining just my opinion.

I wonder what today provides...

 

Agreed, the way they handled the Midlands storms was much better and more akin to how things work in the U.S. i.e. a broad warning calling out potential storms (a yellow warning for us) and once things start firing individual storms and cells get there only polygon for a warning or in our case an upgraded Amber warning.

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This weeks absolutely gloomfest continues this morning, the thick fog has at least lifted somewhat into low cloud however I suspect this won't clear until mid-afternoon at best. To be honest on the coast I'd be surprised to see any sunny what so ever.

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford

See the problem with thunderstorms, nobody knows where the storms would set up. So I think that the Met should have placed a widespread yellow warning and just upgrade it when they see where the thunderstorms developed on the map. Yes I get that Oxfordshire through Gloucestershire got torrential rain, but that was a very small part of the warning area and some people didn't get any rain in the area. In summary they shouldn't have put the amber in so early when they didn't have a clue where they would set up.

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Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
19 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

See the problem with thunderstorms, nobody knows where the storms would set up. So I think that the Met should have placed a widespread yellow warning and just upgrade it when they see where the thunderstorms developed on the map. Yes I get that Oxfordshire through Gloucestershire got torrential rain, but that was a very small part of the warning area and some people didn't get any rain in the area. In summary they shouldn't have put the amber in so early when they didn't have a clue where they would set up.

I’m sure the Met Office carry out a review after the event when warnings are issued. Yesterday’s amber warning caused unnecessary disruption on the railways in many parts of our region because Network Rail reacted to the early issue of the amber warning imposing speed restrictions before anything had happened. Had it been a yellow this wouldn’t have happened instead being on standby in case an Amber warning was issued for a particular area.

The interesting thing was people on this forum, particularly in the south of the region, were calling this a duff just an hour into the amber warning. I was a little more cautious but in the end the only warnings being called for along the south coast were for fog!

Oh and yes I’ve seen the pictures of the underpass at Didcot station, not the first time it’s happened.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

To add to this debate about amber warnings, I’ve seen days in the past when we’ve had a deluge that leaves standing water for several hours afterwards and at the time there was no warning issued at all.

My memory is sketchy and I can’t support with evidence, but as far as I remember nobody was injured or died because of it. Maybe the odd home was flooded I don’t know - but it was just what happened when you got a lot of rain. Go figure.

So either we are getting more nanny state about the weather, or there really is a corncerningly larger number of flood events (presumably related in part to global warming?)

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

To add to this debate about amber warnings, I’ve seen days in the past when we’ve had a deluge that leaves standing water for several hours afterwards and at the time there was no warning issued at all.

My memory is sketchy and I can’t support with evidence, but as far as I remember nobody was injured or died because of it. Maybe the odd home was flooded I don’t know - but it was just what happened when you got a lot of rain. Go figure.

So either we are getting more nanny state about the weather, or there really is a corncerningly larger number of flood events (presumably related in part to global warming?)

Yes  I think the floods in Kent only ever had either no warning or a yellow warning, I think...

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Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

To add to this debate about amber warnings, I’ve seen days in the past when we’ve had a deluge that leaves standing water for several hours afterwards and at the time there was no warning issued at all.

My memory is sketchy and I can’t support with evidence, but as far as I remember nobody was injured or died because of it. Maybe the odd home was flooded I don’t know - but it was just what happened when you got a lot of rain. Go figure.

So either we are getting more nanny state about the weather, or there really is a corncerningly larger number of flood events (presumably related in part to global warming?)

I think it’s because everyone who has a smart phone has become a roving reporter and can get something posted up on social media in minutes for the world to see so we can get a better picture of where there has been a weather event almost as it’s happening.

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