June 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

[Summer Sun]

16.2 to the 27th

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

1.9 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 15.7 to the 23rd

[The PIT]

No change in Sunny Sheffield still at 16.1C due a cooler night should be a bump up tomorrow though due to a hotter day then forecast.

[Summer Sun]

16.3 to the 28th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

1.9 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 15.7 to the 23rd

[Mapantz]

Sat at 17.2°C here. 2.4°C above the derived Met Office average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up 16.2C +2.0C above normal. Rainfall unchanged. Looks like the landing spot will be 16.4C If so joint 5th warmest. Rainfall unchanged

[Summer Sun]

16.4 to the 29th

2.3 above the 61 to 90 average

2.0 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 15.7 to the 23rd

[Roger J Smith]

So the finish will likely be 16.5, can't foresee much adjustment but you never know with that. 

[Summer Sun]

Confirmed as 16.10C

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2018

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield finished on 16.4C +1.9C above normal. Surprisingly higher than the CET zone. The fourth joint warmest here.  Rainfall was 25.9mm 35.5% of average. The max temp was 21.7C +2.6C Average min was 11.1C +1.2C Interestingly the highest figures were recorded early in the month then basically were consistently between 10C and 12C so the average didn't alter much through the month.  

Edited July 1, 2018 by The PIT

[Radiating Dendrite]

Gorgeous summer month here in South London / North Surrey.

Average temperature for this June was 17.1c.  We had an average minimum of 11.9c and an average maximum of 22.3c.

The warmest max was 29.1c which was recorded on the 25th. Lowest minimum was 6.8c recorded on the 13th.

We had no measurable rainfall all month. The last recorded rainfall was May 30th with 4mm.

Edited July 1, 2018 by Radiating Dendrite

[DAVID SNOW]

On ‎09‎/‎06‎/‎2018 at 14:31, Scorcher said:

You do realise that it's a different set of stations for the actual CET as opposed to the publicised rolling CET for the month? The correction tends to be downwards but there is no way of knowing how much, just guesswork.

Last month there was only a small correction- with the easterly theme continuing I don't see how it will be different this month.

And as I said, a 0.4 downward correction would be applied.

[J10]

Monthly Figures - Summary and Top 10.

Three players got it spot on this month. Kirkcaldy Weather, Norrance and Man with Beard.

Seasonal - Summary and Top 10.

Overall - Summary and Top 10.
No change at the top with Man with Beard still well in the lead.

A swap in 2nd and 3rd places, Norrance up 1 place to 2nd with Don down to 3rd.

Excel Format - This seems to download again
June 2018 CET.xlsx

Stats
The 16.1c was 1.6c above average, but this was very well predicted with the average entry being 15.9c. 

 

Edited June 2 by J10 (see edit history)

Edited July 1, 2018 by J10

[Don]

So, it was joint warmest with 2003 since 1976.  Was convinced it would finish a little higher but at least that meant my guess was closer to the mark!

[Roger J Smith]

Not sure when I might see official numbers for the EWP but you can pretty much estimate your score by counting up from the bottom of the list taking 0.2 off each step. Perhaps the high score will be one or two positions into the table, perhaps not. We shall see. 

It was an unusual set-up in that Ireland had higher temperatures at times and a larger anomaly, Shannon had an average of 17.0 and a max of 32.0. 

[Scorcher]

14 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

And as I said, a 0.4 downward correction would be applied.

Sad you remembered. Your wild guess was right, congrats.

[Scorcher]

Disappointed this wasn't higher- it doesn't reflect just how warm and sunny the month was across western areas.

I suspect the stations further south have been cooler relative to average which has stopped the final figure being higher.

If only this hot spell had begun a week earlier- we would have got close to 1976.

[Weather-history]

On 24 June 2018 at 06:47, Weather-history said:

Driest Junes on record for England and Wales (mm)

4.3  1825

10.3 1921

12.4 1826

~15 2018 (up to 21st)

17.8 1962

18.1 1949

18.7 1794, 1976

19.4 1923

 

 

Hasn't changed, so once it's been through the quality control wash, it could be the driest June since 1921 and one of the driest summer months ever recorded.

[cheese]

39 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Disappointed this wasn't higher- it doesn't reflect just how warm and sunny the month was across western areas.

I suspect the stations further south have been cooler relative to average which has stopped the final figure being higher.

If only this hot spell had begun a week earlier- we would have got close to 1976.

I suppose that's why it's called the Central England temperature and not the Western England Temperature.

Anyway, I suspect the cool nights were the biggest reason for the CET being unremarkable. Average max here was 21.9C which is nearly 2 degrees higher than last June despite both months having a similar overall mean. During this spell we've fallen below 10C in the morning only to reach 27-29C in the afternoon.

Edited July 2, 2018 by cheese

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

I suppose that's why it's called the Central England temperature and not the Western England Temperature.

Anyway, I suspect the cool nights were the biggest reason for the CET being unremarkable. Average max here was 21.9C which is nearly 2 degrees higher than last June despite both months having a similar overall mean. During this spell we've fallen below 10C in the morning only to reach 27-29C in the afternoon.

What I meant was that the stations further north such as Stonyhurst are the ones that usually bring the average down- there were a lot of very warm/hot days at Stonyhurst this time so normally this would promote a higher CET.

Agree about the cool nights though. Spells with low humidity tend to end up with lower CETs than you might expect given how it feels during the day. July 2013 was an example of a month that felt hotter than its CET would suggest.

[Roger J Smith]

6 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Hasn't changed, so once it's been through the quality control wash, it could be the driest June since 1921 and one of the driest summer months ever recorded.

Your list has a typo, 1825 as shown should be 1925, so (small point in the final analysis) it could be the driest June since 1925. There was also 16.5 mm in 1868 that 2018 appears to have replaced altogether. 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/data/ranked_monthly/HadEWP_ranked_mly.txt

Edited July 2, 2018 by Roger J Smith

[Weather-history]

9 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Your list has a typo, 1825 as shown should be 1925, so (small point in the final analysis) it could be the driest June since 1925. There was also 16.5 mm in 1868 that 2018 appears to have replaced altogether. 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/data/ranked_monthly/HadEWP_ranked_mly.txt

Yes, the 1825 figure was the driest July on record not June.

[Roger J Smith]

These were our five lowest EWP forecasts, would imagine the top score will fall to one of these:

34.5 __ CHRISBELL-not-the-WEATHERMAN

 27.0 __ RADIATING DENDRITE

 23.0 __ LET IT SNOW!

 22.0 __ DIAGONAL RED LINE

 18.0 __ B87

 

[Snowyowl9]

Surprising how low that went last year was 16c western CET would of been higher.

 

[DAVID SNOW]

12 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Sad you remembered. Your wild guess was right, congrats.

Don't be sad, you were completely wrong, happens to us all at times.

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP official contest amount was 15.6 mm (from NCIC of UKMO). The Hadley version will follow in a few days but likely won't be much different, and would need to be 20.1 mm or higher to change even the top scores in my alternate scoring tables. For now, the contest official versions are posted with annual updates over in the contest scoring thread. These are the current top ten scores for June and all ahead of consensus for the annual, you can find your positions in the complete tables.

 

JUNE EWP scoring

Rank _ Score _ Forecast _ Error __ Forecaster

 1. _____10.0___ 18.0 __ +2.4 ___ B87

 2. _____ 9.8 ___  22.0 __ +6.4 ___ DIAGONAL RED LINE

 3. _____ 9.6 ___  23.0 __ +7.4 ___ LET IT SNOW!

 4. _____ 9.4 ___  27.0 __+11.4___ RADIATING DENDRITE

 5. _____ 9.2 ___  34.5 __+18.9___CHRISBELL-not-the-WEATHERMAN

 6. _____ 9.0 ___  37.0 __+21.4___CHEESEPUFFSCOTT

 7. _____ 8.8 ___ 39.0 __+23.4___BOBD29

 8. _____ 8.6 ___ 40.0 __+24.4___MIDLANDS ICE AGE

 9. _____ 8.4 ___ 42.0 __+26.4___POLAR GAEL

T10 ____ 8 2 ___ 44.0 __+28.4___WEATHER26, STEWFOX

 

==============================================================

Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to June 2018)

Rank __ Forecaster ________________Dec__Jan__Feb__Mar__Apr__May__Jun___TOTAL __ previous rank

 

_01 ___ POLAR GAEL _____________ 4.6 __9.4 __8.6 __2.6 __8.2 __9.6 __8.4 ___ 51.4 ____ _ 03

_02 ___ SINGULARITY _____________5.2 __7.2 __9.8 __7.7 __6.4 __8.0 __5.7 ___ 50.0 ____ _ 01

_03 ___ STEWFOX ________________7.0 __9.4 __4.0 __8.9 __8.2 __0.6 __8.2 ___ 46.3 ____ _ 07

_04 ___ JONBOY _________________ 9.2 __7.8 __6.4 __9.6 __7.5 __3.7 __0.6 ___ 44.8 ____ _ 02

_05 ___  J10 _____________________ 4.4 __7.6 __0.7 __8.3 __9.2 __9.8 __4.3 ___ 44.3 ____ _ 06

_06 ___  BORN FROM THE VOID ____ 6.4 __9.8 __3.5 __5.7 __7.5 __9.0 __1.8 ___ 43.7 ____ _ 04

_07 ___ DON ____________________ 1.8 __6.1 __7.4 __8.3 __8.8 __4.3 __6.8 ___ 43.5 ____ _ 09

_08___ SEASIDE 60 _______________5.8 __4.5 __4.8 __8.8 __8.4 __5.1 __5.9 ___ 43.3 ____ _ 08

T09 ___ NORRANCE ______________ 7.0 __2.2 __8.4 __9.3 __5.4 __9.4 __1.2 ___ 42.9 ____ _ 05

T09__ CHRISBELL-NOTTHEWxMAN _10.0__6.8 __2.6 __6.4 __4.0 __3.9 __9.2 ___ 42.9 ____ _ 15

_11 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ________3.4 __3.3 __9.8_ 10.0 __3.6 __3.0 __8.6 ___ 41.7 ____ _ 18

_12 ___ STEVE B _________________7.4 __8.2 __3.5 __8.8 __7.5 __0.2 __5.3 ___ 40.9 ____ _ 12

(13) ___ consensus _______________ 5.2 __6.3 __5.0 __5.7__7.7 __5.3 __5.3 ___ 40.5 ____ _ (14)

Edited July 3, 2018 by Roger J Smith