June 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

[Scorcher]

On 02/07/2018 at 22:17, DAVID SNOW said:

Don't be sad, you were completely wrong, happens to us all at times.

Enjoy the continued hot weather. Well deserved

[Roger J Smith]

Update on CET scoring for consensus and two recent normals (Dec-Jun)

 

___ Past months ____

____________DEC _________________________ JAN ________________________ FEB

"Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range)

1987-2016*__ +0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 (88-17)>--0.6 __66.7 - 74.1 _ 15 to 19 ______ +1.9 _ 31.2 - 35.1 _ 51 to 54

1981-2010 __ --0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 ______ --0.9 __ 50.0 - 55.6 _ 25 to 28 ______ +1.5 _ 48.1 - 49.4 _ 40 to 41

Consensus __--0.6 __ 71.0 - 74.9 __20 to 23 _____--0.9 __ 50.0 -55.6 _ 25 to 28 _______+1.1 _ 57.1 - 58.4 _ 33 to 34

* becomes 1988-2017 from JAN onward.

____________ MAR ___________________________________ APR _____________________ MAY ____________ 

"Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range)

1988-2017 __ +1.9 __ 20.8 - 22.1 __ 60 to 61 ____ --1.1 __ 72.2--72,2 __ 18 to 18 _____ --1.3 _ 28.6 - 33.3 _ 43 to 46

1981-2010 __ +1.7 __ 26.1 - 26.1 __ 57 to 57 ____ --1.3 __ 57.4--65.6 __ 22 to 27 _____ --1.5 _ 19.1 - 20.5 _ 51 to 52

Consensus __--0.3 __ 78.9 - 85.5 __12 to 17 ____ --1.4 __ 50.8--55.8 __ 28 to 31 ______ --1.0 _ 46.1 - 54.0 _ 30 to 35

 

________ Current Month __ June 2018 ________________ Contest year averages to date (7 mo)___

"Forecaster" _Jun Error_ Jun Points (range)_rank (range) // mean abs error_mean points_mean rank

1988-2017 ___ --1.5 _____ 12.0 - 12.0 ____ 57 to 57 ________ 1.21 _____ 45.8 - 48.7 __ 36 to 38

1981-2010 ___ --1.6 _____ 04.1 - 10.4 ____ 58 to 62 ________ 1.24 _____ 42.0 - 45.9 __ 37 to 39

Consensus ___--0.3 _____ 74.9 - 82.7 ____ 12 to 17 ________ 0.80 _____ 61.2 - 67.5 __ 23 to 27

___________________________________________________________________________

Consensus is pulling away from the random normals slowly but surely with this month a big help,

right now Consensus has an average rank around 25th, the normals are down in the high 30s.

 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 16.1 c June 2018 shares the same mean CET as June's 2003, 1960, 1804, 1786, 1785 and 1772.

[Roger J Smith]

Hadley EWP was 15.8 mm, so the June alternate scoring will be the same as for the contest version (NCIC), will post the annual updates in the contest thread for this alternate scoring. 

This was the fourth driest June since their series began in 1766, only beaten by 1925 (4.3 mm), 1921 (10.3 mm) and 1826 (12.4 mm). It replaced 1868 (16.5 mm) in fourth position. July 1868 at 20.0 mm was also fourth driest July, but the total there of 36.5 mm for June-July is not quite the lowest, 1800 managed 35.8 from 26.7 mm June and 9.1 mm July (second driest), both of these are records under some pressure now. July 1921 had 29.3 mm (total 39.6 mm) and the other two very dry Junes had more normal July amounts. 1826 was 49.4 mm and 1925 was 81.3 mm. 1976 values were 18.7 mm and 30.1 mm (total 48.8 mm). In 1995 the total was 57.8 mm and in 2006 it was 63.0 mm. 

2012 had 280.8 mm June-July and 2017 had 199.5 mm. 

[Weather-history]

Driest summer months on record for England and Wales (mm)

 4.3 June 1925

 8.2 July 1825

 9.1 July 1800, August 1995 

 10.3 June 1921

 12.4 June 1826

 14.4 August 1947

 15.0 August 1940 

 15.8    June 2018

 16.5 June 1868

 17.8 June 1962

 18.1 June 1949 

 18.7 June 1794, June 1976

  19.4  June 1923

 

9th driest summer month ever recorded for England and Wales

[Roger J Smith]

I don't know what this proves but June 2018 would have been ...

3rd driest January

11th driest February (of course Feb shorter by 2 days for all but one (1932).

tied 9th driest March

14th driest April 

5th driest May

was 4th driest June

tied 3rd driest July (1911) 

4th driest August 

5th driest September

4th driest October

the driest November (17.0 in 1945 is)

3rd driest December

_____

That makes June 2018 the joint 55th driest month in the past 252.5 years (3030 months in total) with March 1893 and July 1911 . . . it was therefore drier than 98% of all months. Since the end of WW-II, only these eleven months have been drier than June 2018: Feb 1959, Feb 1993, Mar 1961, Apr 1957, Apr 1984, Apr 2007, Apr 2011, May 1991, Aug 1995, Aug 1947, Sep 1959.

That makes June 2018 the 12th driest month in the past 863 (since Aug 1947) so it was also drier than 98% of modern months. It was also the driest month in 7 years and 2 months (86 months). 

Another way to look at June was that it produced the rainfall normally seen in the first week of June. 

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Interestingly 1947 is also the only year that has a 12.7 and 15.5+ may and june extend into the rest of summer.