June 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

[Don]

37 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

With the hot weather coming up, any idea where this June is likely to sit amongst all time June months? Obviously 1976 is top of the tree, and we're not beating that, but it must be in the top percentage?

Must be highly likely that this June will be the hottest since 1976 now?

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

15.8C to the 22nd...+1.6 (13.6: -1.0)
15.7C to the 23rd...+1.5 (14.0: -0.8)
15.7C to the 24th...+1.5 (15.5: +0.6)
15.8C to the 25th...+1.5 (18.6: +3.3)
15.9C to the 26th...+1.6 (19.6: +4.3)
16.0C to the 27th...+1.7 (18.5: +2.9)
16.2C to the 28th...+1.8 (20.5: +4.9)
16.4C to the 29th...+2.0 (22.6: +6.6) [Daily Record: 22.4C in 1976]
16.6C to the 30th...+2.2 (23.6: +7.8) [Daily Record: 22.1C in 1976]

The GFS is still toying with the idea of giving us the warmest June day on record! Aside from that, a fast warming trend from tomorrow onwards should see the CET climb into the 16s by mid next week. At this stage we look likely to finish somewhere between 16.2 and 16.8C before corrections, so about 15.7C to 16.9C after corrections. That's anywhere from the joint 5th warmest to the joint 24th warmest June.

[Roger J Smith]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

With the hot weather coming up, any idea where this June is likely to sit amongst all time June months? Obviously 1976 is top of the tree, and we're not beating that, but it must be in the top percentage?

For the CET which runs from 1659 to present, 1846 at 18.2 is warmest, followed by 18.0 in 1676. 

Third place was 17.3 in 1826 and fourth was 17.1 in 1822. 

1976 at 17.0 was fifth overall and warmest since 1846.

The rest of the current top ten are (tied sixth) 1762, 1798 at 16.9, then eighth place 1858 (16.8), with 1775 in 9th at 16.6.

Tenth is a five-way tie at 16.4 (1726, 1728, 1818, 1940, 1970). We could knock all of those out of the top ten with 16.5 or higher. 

[Roger J Smith]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Must be highly likely that this June will be the hottest since 1976 now?

 

That is currently held by 2003 (16.1) so would appear very likely. (1976 was 17.0). 

[Don]

23 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

That is currently held by 2003 (16.1) so would appear very likely. (1976 was 17.0). 

I thought so.  Last June at 16.0 must have got very close to being the warmest since 1976, if it wasn't for the cool down at the end of the month?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back down to 15.7C+2.0C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[The PIT]

Good chance looking at the GFS 12oz good chance Sheffield will record it's 2nd warmest June on record and the warmest since 1957. That's if it comes off.

[Summer Sun]

15.8 to the 22nd

1.8 above the 61 to 90 average

1.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 15.8 to the 17th, 18th & 22nd

[Weather-history]

Driest Junes on record for England and Wales (mm)

4.3  1825

10.3 1921

12.4 1826

~15 2018 (up to 21st)

17.8 1962

18.1 1949

18.7 1794, 1976

19.4 1923

 

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Only had two days with a trace of rain this month.....my rain guage did not pick either up.

19 days of above 20c max!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Only had two days with a trace of rain this month.....my rain guage did not pick either up.

19 days of above 20c max!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 15.6C +1.7C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Re rain gauge not picking trace up. It won't if the amount isn't enough to run into the collection bottle. Then it's a case of observing it.

[Summer Sun]

15.7 to the 23rd

1.8 above the 61 to 90 average

1.5 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 15.7 to the 23rd

[Roger J Smith]

Current top twenty-one June days (CET mean) ... non-daily records shown with **

 1. 23.0 __ 3rd, 1947

 2. 22.9 __ 15th, 1858

 3. 22.8 __ 27th, 1826

 4. 22.7 __ 21st, 1817 and 27th, 1878**

 6. 22.6 __ 28th, 1976

 7. 22.5 __ 5th, 1950 and 27th, 1976**

 9. 22.4 __ 29th, 1976

10. 22.3 __ 22nd, 1941 and 2nd, 1947 and 26th, 1976

13. 22.1 __ 21st, 1941** and 30th, 1976 and 19th, 2005

16. 22.0 __ 22nd, 1846** and 24th, 1935 and 27th, 2011**

19. 21.9 __ 28th, 1986** and 26th, 2001** and 19th, 2017**

Edited June 24, 2018 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

CET set to rise again through the rest of the month, if we see a 0.1 degree rise each day - highly likely we will end up with a value of 16.4 degrees, which would make it easily the warmest since 1976. What will prevent it rivalling the very warmest Junes, are the generally cooler nights ahead, no humid continental airstream. The next few days look a carbon copy of conditions same period in late June 1995.

[Summer Sun]

15.8 to the 24th

1.8 above the 61 to 90 average

1.6 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 15.7 to the 23rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15.7C +1.8C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Snowyowl9]

On ‎22‎/‎06‎/‎2018 at 12:31, Don said:

Must be highly likely that this June will be the hottest since 1976 now?

 

A  definite yes 15.8c currently hasn`t risen in 2 days because of cold nights though.

Edited June 25, 2018 by Snowyowl9

[Weather-history]

Driest summer months on record for England and Wales (mm)

 4.3 June 1925

 8.2 July 1825

 9.1 July 1800, August 1995 

 10.3 June 1921

 12.4 June 1826

 14.4 August 1947

 15.0 August 1940 

~ 15    June 2018

 16.5 June 1868

 17.8 June 1962

 18.1 June 1949 

 18.7 June 1794, June 1976

  19.4  June 1923

 

[Summer Sun]

15.9 to the 25th

1.8 above the 61 to 90 average

1.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 15.7 to the 23rd

[Roger J Smith]

12z GFS suggesting any rain will come at the very last gasp of the month in the southwest so it's unlikely to add more than 1 mm to the EWP if perhaps 10 mm falls in some places in the southwest before midnight Saturday. Could probably start scoring the EWP now if w-h is right with his estimate. I am expecting it will be in that range (15-20 mm possibly). 

Temperatures including today should average about 20 to 21 meaning an outcome of about 16.6 before corrections. An average like 1976 of 22 would take us to around 16.9 before corrections so I thinik that's the upper limit. One or two daily records and top 20 daily values are under threat. The 30th at 22.1 is perhaps more vulnerable. That would be the second time since 1st July of 2015 that we gouged a hole in the previous unbroken string of daily records from 1976. 

Edited June 26, 2018 by Roger J Smith

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

16.0C to the 26th... +1.7 (20.0: +4.7)
16.1C to the 27th... +1.8 (18.3: +2.7)
16.2C to the 28th... +1.8 (17.9: +2.3)
16.2C to the 29th... +1.8 (18.4: +2.4)
16.3C to the 30th... +1.8 (17.4: +1.6)

Much cooler outlook compared to recent days, mainly down to close to average minima. No records under threat and generally closer to a typical June warm spell to end the month.

.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15.9C +1.9C above normal. Rainfall still at 25.9mm 35.5% of the monthly average. Looking like we will finish around 16.4C for month with no change in rainfall.

This would put it at the hottest since 2006 and joint 4th Hottest on record.

Edited June 26, 2018 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

16.0 to the 26th

2.0 above the 61 to 90 average

1.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 15.7 to the 23rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 16.1C +2.0C above normal rainfall unchanged.