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June 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

16.6C to the 6th... +3.1 (13.9: +0.1)
16.3C to the 7th... +2.8 (14.9: +0.9)
16.3C to the 8th... +2.7 (15.9: +2.0)
16.3C to the 9th... +2.7 (16.7: +2.7)
16.4C to the 10th... +2.7 (16.9: +2.6)
16.4C to the 11th... +2.7 (16.0: +2.4)
16.3C to the 12th... +2.6 (15.8: +1.9)
16.3C to the 13th... +2.5 (16.0: +2.0)
16.0C to the 14th... +2.2 (12.8: -1.6)
15.8C to the 15th... +2.0 (13.0: -1.2)

A gradual fall back towards average, but still 2C above by mid month due to the warm start. Still, wouldn't require much in the 2nd half to give us a top 10 June (16.4).

gQw7937.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 17.2C +5C above normal. Rainfall 18.6mm 23.5% of normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

16.6 to the 6th

3.3 above the 61 to 90 average

3.1 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 16.6 to the 6th

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
23 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield at 17.2C +5C above normal. Rainfall 18.6mm 23.5% of normal.

Thanks for posting these rainfall updates, it gives us a way to estimate the outcome of the EWP contest as Sheffield is fairly central to the grid -- readers should realize that when you give a percentage of normal, I believe you're referring to your station average at the end of the month, in fact the 18.6 mm assuming it's over five days is something like six times 23.5% of normal for the five day interval (adjustments can be made depending on comparative daily rates in May, June and later July). If the 6th was a dry day there (I don't know) then same comment but five times now, in other words, June is running just a little on the wet side of normal so far. If you wanted to incorporate that into your report, just multiply each percentage you get by (30/n) where n is the number of days included in the report. Example, after the 10th, your reported percentage would be "to this point" after multiplying by 3 (30/10). 

Some other places are likely running below this pace, I track amounts in Ireland for a different forum and contest, and some places there are running 20% or less. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 16.4C. +4.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Hi Rodger Brain to frazzled by the end of the day to work out the rainfall that way and to be honest I'm not really sure that's the correct way to present it.

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
3 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield at 16.4C. +4.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Hi Rodger Brain to frazzled by the end of the day to work out the rainfall that way and to be honest I'm not really sure that's the correct way to present it.

We're on 14.5C (+1.4C) to the 7th. It just shows how much cooler it has been here with the onshore breeze. May was only 1.4C above average for the same reason.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
On 06/06/2018 at 13:04, BornFromTheVoid said:

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

16.6C to the 6th... +3.1 (13.9: +0.1)
16.3C to the 7th... +2.8 (14.9: +0.9)
16.3C to the 8th... +2.7 (15.9: +2.0)
16.3C to the 9th... +2.7 (16.7: +2.7)
16.4C to the 10th... +2.7 (16.9: +2.6)
16.4C to the 11th... +2.7 (16.0: +2.4)
16.3C to the 12th... +2.6 (15.8: +1.9)
16.3C to the 13th... +2.5 (16.0: +2.0)
16.0C to the 14th... +2.2 (12.8: -1.6)
15.8C to the 15th... +2.0 (13.0: -1.2)

A gradual fall back towards average, but still 2C above by mid month due to the warm start. Still, wouldn't require much in the 2nd half to give us a top 10 June (16.4).

gQw7937.jpg

I haven't studied it closely but there has been a bit of a shift away from unsettled weather this morning on the GFS- I can't imagine those cooler days at the end of the list will be happening now with high pressure still having an influence.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

16.3 to the 7th

3.0 above the 61 to 90 average

2.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 16.3 to the 7th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.1C +3.7C above normal. Rainfall 19.8mm 27.1% of average for the month. Should be a bigger drop tomorrow due to a cold Friday

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I don't think there's a right or wrong way to present the rainfall percentage, just as long as readers understand it's a percentage of end of month average values, as to what percentage it represents for the elapsed time, that can only be an estimate unless you want to crunch a lot of numbers, but the assumption would be a constant daily rate to get to the average, and you could modify that a bit if you felt the month had a trend line (from lower to higher most likely for June). But keep on with the current format, now I think anyone who wasn't aware of the time frame will be and they can make their own estimates. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

16.2 to the 8th

2.8 above the 61 to 90 average

2.6 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 16.2 to the 8th

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
18 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Hadley running high imo, perhaps a 0.4 downward correction this month.

You do realise that it's a different set of stations for the actual CET as opposed to the publicised rolling CET for the month? The correction tends to be downwards but there is no way of knowing how much, just guesswork.

Last month there was only a small correction- with the easterly theme continuing I don't see how it will be different this month.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A very warm start to June then, a gradual fall over the next few days, but we will likely still be appreciably above average at the mid month stage, and I don't foresee a major cooldown in the second half, so preety high odds on an above average month then - how high is the question, quite probably in the 1-2 degree above average band. 

Just have another feeling this will be a summer that delivers best conditions in the first half in terms of sustained dry warm sunny weather, but no doubt the highest temps will occur in the second half under some sort of plume or shortlived hot spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 15.7C +3.2C above average. Rainfall 20.3mm 27.8% of average for the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

You do realise that it's a different set of stations for the actual CET as opposed to the publicised rolling CET for the month? The correction tends to be downwards but there is no way of knowing how much, just guesswork.

Last month there was only a small correction- with the easterly theme continuing I don't see how it will be different this month.

Come back when the final June figure is known and ask me how I knew.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

These are the warmest averages (1772 to 2017) for the first ten days of June:

 (1) 1982 _ 18.64

 (2) 1822 _ 18.46

 (3) 1940 _ 18.33

 (4) 1846 _ 18.29

 (5) 1933 _ 17.90

 (6) 1950 _ 17.73

 (7) 1970 _ 17.41

 (8) 1791 _ 17.31

 (9) 1775 _ 17.20

(10) 1858 _ 17.01

(11) 2004 _ 16.60

(12) 1911 _ 16.43

(13) 1963 _ 16.39

(14) 1939 _ 16.18

(15) 1993 _ 16.16

(16) 1798 _ 16.15

(17) 1786 _ 16.10

(18) 1947 _ 16.09

(19) 1804 _ 16.06

(20) 1960 _ 16.00

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

16.2 to the 9th

2.7 above the 61 to 90 average

2.6 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 16.2 to the 8th & 9th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 15.7C +3.2C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

16.2 to the 10th

2.7 above the 61 to 90 average

2.5 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 16.2 to the 8th, 9th & 10th

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

16.2C to the 11th... +2.5 (16.2: +2.6)
16.1C to the 12th... +2.4 (14.8: +0.9)
16.0C to the 13th... +2.3 (15.0: +1.0)
16.0C to the 14th... +2.2 (16.1: +1.7)
15.9C to the 15th... +2.1 (14.0: -0.2)
15.8C to the 16th... +1.9 (14.3: -0.5)
15.7C to the 17th... +1.8 (14.4: -0.6)
15.7C to the 18th... +1.7 (16.4: +1.6)
15.9C to the 19th... +1.9 (19.3: +4.1)
15.9C to the 20th... +1.8 (15.0: -0.1)

At this early stage, an above average month looks very likely.  Just how far above is the question!

CET_11_6_18.thumb.JPG.96ef5489c1b96efc575a7b77f40cee5c.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 15.8C +3.2C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

16.2 to the 11th

2.7 above the 61 to 90 average

2.5 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 16.2 to the 8th, 9th, 10th & 11th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 15.8C +3.1C above normal, Rainfall 22mm 30.1% of the month average rainfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

16.1 to the 12th

2.5 above the 61 to 90 average

2.4 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 16.1 to the 12th

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