Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

June 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

17.7 C (3rd warmest, no June has yet finished 17.4 to 17.9, 1826 now third at 17.3) and 57.4 mm (rainfall near average overall but huge variations likely).

Worth pondering, since last year was 16.0, of the thirty warmest Junes (15.8 or higher) twenty-two occurred before 1940 and twenty-five before 1970. Compare that to November with thirty at 8.0 or warmer, and you find that only twelve happened before 1938 (14 before 1940) and eighteen before 1978 (or 1970). 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

15.9*C and 56 mm, please.

I suspect it will be hard to avoid a fair few downpours again this coming month, but hopefully enough places will escape to keep the mean total below the long-term average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Going to up this slightly to 16.1C. The first ten days looks inevitably well above average due to mild nights. After this, I'm pretty confident that the Atlantic will have a least a little more oomph but I can't see it being any cooler than average in the second 10 days. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

interestingly, the top 3 warmest consecutive June pairs, are

1845-1846: 16.55C (14.9C and 18.2C, respectively)
1857-1858: 16.3C (15.8C and 16.8C, respectively)
1785-1786: 16.1C (both were 16.1C)

We'd need 16.2C this year to enter the top 3,  17.2C to top that leader board.
Roughly 1 in every 12 pairs of years is 15.5C or higher. We've had 3 in the 12, but that's happened many times before in the CET record.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Another appreciably above average month on the cards, but not to the same degree as May, suspect average maxima will be a little closer to the norm, but CET held up by warm minima.

My guess is 15.9 degrees. 

Likely to be a warm start to the month, probably turning more average through the middle, and CET flatlining somewhat through to the end with the atlantic having much more of an influence. Only fly in the ointment is whether we come under the influence of a stubborn trough which would suppress temps.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

16.8c and 58mm please

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

15.5c and 80mm please.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Here's a summary of the forecasts that arrived "on time" -- we still have three days available for later forecasts with time penalties. To save myself some work, I have included initials and order of posting numbers with this summary then I don't have to do this again for the eventual detailed posts over on the competition and scoring thread (those appear on the 4th when all forecasts are in) ...

CET _ 14.1 (IRA252-2), 14.5 (DRL-9, SYED-33, Rel-36), 14.6 (Jon-43), 14.7 (Wx26-7), 14.8 (JeC-3), 14.9 (Dami-8, SS-25)

15.0 (DK3-31), 15.1 (sray-19, W-H-42), 15.2 (SF-13, SUN-40), 15.3 (STAR-27), 15.4 (MIA-41),

15.5 (SB-18, DRS-23, J10-32, MUL-47, GOD-56), 15.6 (MP-R-4, CPS-11, STEW-24), 15.7 (Reef-46, Met-57),

15.8 (RD-6, B87-21, TWS-26, CW-39), 15.9 (SIN-50, DAM-53, DON-55),

16.0 (DWW-14, MB-34, G_F-44), 16.1 (Kwx-17, Nor-45, MWB-52), 16.2 (LIS-1, PEG-29, DS-51) 16.3 (OP-15, BFTV-38), 16.4 (ALJ9-30)

16.5 (PG-12, SteB-37, PIT-48), 16.6 (BD29-16, EDS-35), 16.7 (TJM-14-10), 16.8 (CB-n -20, DOC32-54)

17.0 (RG-28), 17.4 (VIR-22), 17.7 (RJS-49), 20.5 (LG-5)

 

EWP _ 18 (B87), 22 (DRL), 23 (LIS), 27 (RD), 34.5 (CB-n), 37 (CPS), 39 (BD29), 40 (MIA)

42 (PG), 44 (Wx26, Stew), 45 (MP-R), 45.6 (K-wx), 46 (SF), 46.2 (TWS), 49 (DS), 50 (DON)

51 (Star), 53 (TJM-14), 56 (SIN), 57.4 (RJS), 58 (JeC, Peg, SteB, Doc32), 60 (RG, J10, MUL, PIT),

64 (Dami), 64.5 (SYED), 65 (ALJ9, Reef), 67 (DRS), 67.5 (CW), 69.9 (DK3), 70 (VIR, BFTV)

73 (EdS, Nor), 75 (W-H), 80 (Rel, Jon, God), 200 (LG)

 

Consensus (so far) is 15.8 C and 58 mm.

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

Jesus had the page open yesterday to do it and them forgot.

16.2c

52mm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Late :search:

Not a perfect start to summer 15.8C thanks rainfall near average if above in some areas with convective rain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

1981-2010 Daily and Cumulative Normals. plus Daily Extremes for June (1772-2017)

_________________________________________________________________________

Date __ CET __ cum CET __ MAX __________ MIN

01 ____ 13.5 ___ 13.5 _____ 20.9 (1781) ____ 7.7 (1802&1962)

02 ____ 13.8 ___ 13.7 _____ 22.3 (1947) ____ 7.6 (1991)

03 ____ 13.4 ___ 13.6 _____ 23.0 (1947) ____ 7.9 (1773)

04 ____ 13.2 ___ 13.5 _____ 20.3 (1982) ____ 8.0 (1871&1991)

05 ____ 13.3 ___ 13.4 _____ 21.3 (1982) ____ 8.2 (1991)

06 ____ 13.7 ___ 13.5 _____ 22.5 (1950) ____ 8.4 (1909)

07 ____ 14.0 ___ 13.6 _____ 21.6 (1846) ____ 8.6 (1814)

08 ____ 13.9 ___ 13.6 _____ 20.4 (1940) ____ 8.6 (1881&1914)

09 ____ 14.0 ___ 13.6 _____ 20.9 (1970) ____ 7.3 (1816)

10 ____ 14.3 ___ 13.7 _____ 21.5 (1970) ____ 8.2 (1821)

11 ____ 13.6 ___ 13.7 _____ 21.0 (1970) ____ 8.0 (1777)

12 ____ 13.9 ___ 13.7 _____ 20.8 (2006) ____ 8.6 (1841)

13 ____ 14.0 ___ 13.7 ____ 20.5 (1818,1989) __ 8.5 (1901)

14 ____ 14.4 ___ 13.8 _____ 19.4 (1814) ____ 7.9 (1903)

15 ____ 14.2 ___ 13.8 _____ 22.9 (1858) ____ 8.1 (1850)

16 ____ 14.8 ___ 13.9 ____20.7 (1858,1896) __ 9.6 (1869)

17 ____ 15.0 ___ 13.9 _____ 21.4 (1917) ____ 9.1 (1928)

18 ____ 14.8 ___ 14.0 _____ 21.2 (2005) ____ 8.1 (1855)

19 ____ 15.2 ___ 14.1 _____ 22.1 (2005) ____ 7.3 (1795)

20 ____ 15.1 ___ 14.1 _____ 21.7 (1846) ____ 9.0 (1795&1964)

21 ____ 14.4 ___ 14.1 _____ 22.7 (1817) ____ 9.8 (1903)

22 ____ 14.6 ___ 14.1 _____ 22.3 (1941) ____ 9.0 (1823)

23 ____ 14.8 ___ 14.2 _____ 21.8 (1935) ____ 9.4 (1823)

24 ____ 14.9 ___ 14.2 _____ 22.0 (1935) ___ 10.1 (1784)

25 ____ 15.3 ___ 14.2 _____ 21.6 (1935) ____ 8.7 (1835)

26 ____ 15.3 ___ 14.3 _____ 22.3 (1976) ____ 9.7 (1835)

27 ____ 15.6 ___ 14.3 _____ 22.8 (1826) ___ 10.2 (1862)

28 ____ 15.6 ___ 14.4 _____ 22.6 (1976) ____ 9.4 (1812)

29 ____ 16.0 ___ 14.4 _____ 22.4 (1976) ____ 9.7 (1839)

30 ____ 15.8 ___ 14.5 _____ 22.1 (1976) ____ 9.1 (1839)

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

18.1 to the 2nd

5.2 above the 61 to 90 average

4.4 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

June contest tables of entries posted here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=9

consensus values are 15.8 C and 58.0 mm. 

... still waiting for May EWP but have the scoring table ready to go from 39.5 mm,

hoping it will be close to that value so I don't have much editing to do. ...

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

18.0 to the 3rd

4.9 above the 61 to 90 average

4.4 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 18.0 to the 3rd

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

17.1 to the 5th

3.9 above the 61 to 90 average

3.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 18.7 to the 1st

Current low this month 17.1 to the 5th

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...