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Roger J Smith

June 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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(a) CET forecasts -- the averages and extremes

includes all values 1981 to 2017 colour coded for warmest, middle and coolest thirds. 

23.0 ... 3rd, 1947, warmest daily mean

22.4 ... average for last five days in June 1976

21.2 ... average for last nine days in June 1976

18.2 ... 1846 (warmest June)

18.0 ... 1676 (2nd warmest)

17.3 ... 1826 (3rd warmest)

17.1 ... 1822 (4th warmest)

17.0 ... 1976 (5th warmest)

16.1 ... 2003

16.0 ... 2017

15.9 ... 2006

15.7 ... 1992

15.5 ... 1982, 2005

15.3 ... 2004

15.2 ... 2010, 2016

15.1 ... 2000, 2007, 2014

15.0 ... 1993

14.8 ... 1986, 2009 and average for 2001-2017

14.7 ... 

14.6 ... 1989 and average for 1988-2017 and 1991-2017 (emerging 1991-2020 average)

14.5 ... 1984, 1994 average for 1981-2010, 1986-2015, also for 1701-1800

14.4 ... 1983, 1988, 1996, 2002

14.3 ... 1995, 2001 and average for all years 1659-2017, also 1801-1900

14.2 ... 1998 and average for 1961-1990, also 1901-2000

14.1 ... 1997 and average for 1971-2000, also 1659-1700

14.0 ... 2015

13.9 ... 1999, 2008

13.8 ... 2011

13.6 ... 1990, 2013

13.5 ... 2012

13.2 ... 1981

12.8 ... 1987

12.7 ... 1985

12.1 ... 1991 (lone 8th coldest after 1689, 1698 at 12.0 tied 6th coldest)

11.9 ... 1749 (5th coldest)

11.8 ... 1972, 1916, 1909 (tied 2nd coldest)

11.5 ... 1675 (coldest June)

7.3 ... 9th (1816) and 19th (1795) coldest daily means

__________________________________________________________________

At 16.1, 2003 was tied 18th warmest which is the least extreme such ranking for any month in the period 1981 to 2017. The next in line is May (tied 6th warmest). June is also the only month that has a more extreme cold rank since 1981 (June 1991 -- 8th coldest) than its warmest rank. From 2010 to 2015 December shared that distinction. Besides December 2010 (2nd coldest) and June 1991 (8th coldest) the only other months since 1981 with coldest 15 placements in the entire period of record since 1659 are Feb 1986 (5th coldest), March 2013 (tied 12th coldest), May 1996 (tied 13th coldest), Sept 1986 (tied 14th coldest), and Dec 1981 (tied 8th coldest). 

___________________________________________________________________

Enter the CET forecast contest by 0001h Friday 1st of June without penalty, or on any of the first three days of June with increasing late penalties.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___________ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

(b) Optional EWP contest

The contest uses the England and Wales precip series (1910 to present) from the NCIC of UKMO as its source, rather than the slightly wetter (usually) Hadley EWP. Differences so far this contest year have been small but scoring is available for both now in the competition thread. In this table of values, the NCIC averages and extremes are shown, and Hadley values (for the extremes only) for comparison. 

157.8 mm __ 2012 wettest (NCIC) 1910-2017 ... (160.1 Hadley, none wetter 1766 to 1909)

_66.2 mm __ mean 1988-2017 (NCIC)

_64.1 mm __ mean 1981-2010 (NCIC)

_22.4 mm __ 1995 driest (NCIC) 1981-2017 ... (20.2 mm Hadley)

__4.0 mm __ 1925 driest (NCIC) 1910-2017 ... (4.3 mm Hadley, none drier 1766 to 1909)

(in the longer Hadley series, second wettest was 157.1 mm in 1860; second driest was 10.3 mm in 1921)

- - - - - _______________________________ - - - - -

Enter the EWP contest (add your forecast to your CET temp forecast), same deadlines but shifted three hours later in all cases to give you a bit of time to ponder the guidance. (0300h 1st of June is penalty-free deadline, then it's 0.2 point deductions per day late to 0300h 4th). Maximum score is 10.0 for closest forecast, all others are scored on a sliding scale by rank down to 0.0 points for least accurate. 

Good luck in both contests !!

_______________________________ > > > >

 

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16.2 and 23mm please! Also, I think this might be the first time I've ever guessed a well-above-average month. I guess that means we'll have the coldest June on record. 😉

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14.8 C and 58mm please

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I'm thinking maybe a June similar to 2004. It would take something major to change the current base state in early June, so a warm and dry first two thirds with a cooler Atlantic finish.

15.6C and 45mm

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Posted (edited)

20.5C  :(  Last sub 12C June in 1972.  Last sub 13C and last sub 13.5C June in 1991.

200 mm from Atlantic garbage and monsoons.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted

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Posted (edited)

14.7C and 44mm please

We are somehow going to end up paying for this glorious weather around Bank Holiday Weekend lasting for most of June.

Edited by Weather26

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14.9 AND 65 MM.

Cos I hope it might actually storm.

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Posted (edited)

A guess of 14.5*C and 22mm of rainfall, please. I feel it will be a month that leans more towards settled, warmer side with most rain coming in the form of thunderstorms. 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

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16.5C and 42mm for me please, 

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Hi 16.6C and 39mm please

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While i don't know if it will return or how low we can go, i do believe that our spell will break in early June with a probably westerly pattern following. 

Right now i shall go for 15.5C. 

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15.1c please

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15.8c and 18mm.

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15.5c and 67mm thank you please

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15.6c 44mm

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