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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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It is to cloudy in warminster in Wiltshire again and can't see south and west getting any thunders to day and  breezy

Edited by Tom dewey likes thunder

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In New Milton working at the moment, hoping my drive to Ferndown may bring me through the Southampton cell. 

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Meanwhile, the sun is starting to shine all the way up in Redford. Those storms have gone on longer then I thought they would though and they're still going strong. 

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Well all the drizzle that moved through this morning was coming from the ENE, the fun stuff to the east now look to have more of an ESE component and will subsequently miss here all together bar the most southerly flank.

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For the next 4 days there's a 57% chance of thunderstorms for me according to net weather. 

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1 minute ago, Swansonson69 said:

For the next 4 days there's a 57% chance of thunderstorms for me according to net weather. 

Ignore that and concentrate on the other 43%. It'll be more accurate.

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Bar the thunder a few hours ago, its a standard summers day here. 

Not cold nor hot, a little breezy, and damp/cloudy 

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Just now, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

Is it Sunny in Dorset and Southampton ?

Looks wet in Southampton. I’m in between the two and it’s cloudy. 

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5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Ignore that and concentrate on the other 43%. It'll be more accurate.

Haha you're so funny lol. 😂

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Thunder getting louder here and rain steadily heavier. 

Edit - just seen my first flash too. 

Edited by Harry

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3 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

For the next 4 days there's a 57% chance of thunderstorms for me according to net weather. 

What does that actually mean?

I read that as you you'd effectively need about 6days to have a 100% chance of one storm. Or does it mean there's a 57% chance in each of the next 4 days for one storm on each day.

Sounds harsh but its a pointless stat/comment really as those chances a generated for specific grid points and probably at this range based of GFS guided dew points that are too high, rather than quoting stats like that you are better off trying to decode the postings made by those on the board with bundles of knowledge and understand (as annoying as it is for all of us, and coming from the person who's been in the almost all the warning zones and had almost nothing in the past four days) that even with a really high chance of seeing storms you can easily end up with nothing.

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6 minutes ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

Is it Sunny in Dorset and Southampton ?

No, wet in Southampton, overcast a nothingy in Bournemouth - no cold, not hot, not raining, not sunny, not windy lol

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Again the environmental factors are just not conducive for convective activity west of Southampton currently, the area of rain moving WNW is losing intensity and spreading out, a bit of yucky afternoon for north Dorest, Wilts and Somerset IMO. More favourable conditions look like advecting further westwards this afternoon, however extensive cloud cover and mixing out of the atmosphere is likely to reduce risk IMO.

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2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

What does that actually mean?

I read that as you you'd effectively need about 6days to have a 100% chance of one storm. Or does it mean there's a 57% chance in each of the next 4 days for one storm on each day.

Sounds harsh but its a pointless stat/comment really as those chances a generated for specific grid points and probably at this range based of GFS guided dew points that are too high, rather than quoting stats like that you are better off trying to decode the postings made by those on the board with bundles of knowledge and understand (as annoying as it is for all of us, and coming from the person who's been in the almost all the warning zones and had almost nothing in the past four days) that even with a really high chance of seeing storms you can easily end up with nothing.

Honestly I just take the day how it comes. I don't go by any forecast when it comes to thunderstorms. Like BBC for example, I had a quick glace at there's and for the next 3 days they say thunderstorms. Forecasts change all the time so I just go with the radar and hope for the best.  

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Just now, Alderc said:

What does that actually mean?

I read that as you you'd effectively need about 6days to have a 100% chance of one storm. Or does it mean there's a 57% chance in each of the next 4 days for one storm on each day.

Sounds harsh but its a pointless stat/comment really as those chances a generated for specific grid points and probably at this range based of GFS guided dew points that are too high, rather than quoting stats like that you are better off trying to decode the postings made by those on the board with bundles of knowledge and understand (as annoying as it is for all of us, and coming from the person who's been in the almost all the warning zones and had almost nothing in the past four days) that even with a really high chance of seeing storms you can easily end up with nothing.

It’s inadequate forecasting imho - not point fingers at anyone or anywhere in particular but it’s the consistent posting of warnings with nothin coming of it that starts to grate. We have had over a week of warnings and every time the wind has changed or it went too slow or it went too quick or it just didn’t happen at all.

There is a real danger of a cry wolf scenario where people stop taking the warnings seriously. If the forecast end up being too general maybe it should just be scrapped?

Maybe i’m Just getting irritated by the let downs - it just feels relentless!

I’m hoping today’s storm makes it to us - and looking at Thursday we are in with a shout but other than that i’m Just going to watch the radars and the skies until someone can give me a more accurate picture of what’s happening.

rant over , lol

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Storm moved away now after nearly 2 hours of frequent lightning and torrential rain. It was my first overhead storm of 2018 and not a bad way to start. There were some signs of flash flooding on some roads but I don’t think it’s too bad. Nice to finally lose some of that horrible humidity. 

Hope everyone in its path enjoys it :) 

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There is a nice looking cell heading for eastleigh just north of emsworth, but hard to say if it will stay that way.

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 it is now raining over here in Warminster in Wiltshire and I'm hoping this cloud burns off soon so I can see some thunderstorms bubbling up over the horizon and it is breezy over here

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2 minutes ago, Chi-gareth said:

There is a nice looking cell heading for eastleigh just north of emsworth, but hard to say if it will stay that way.

Yeah, less dark here in Southampton and things have turned more drizzly, I expect that cell to pass to the North of here as it seems to be heading in a WNW direction.

Despite it turning pretty dark here, no lightning from that downpour which has just pushed through.

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5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yeah, less dark here in Southampton and things have turned more drizzly, I expect that cell to pass to the North of here as it seems to be heading in a WNW direction.

Despite it turning pretty dark here, no lightning from that downpour which has just pushed through.

It's look like it they may heading more for Winchester., but again I have a feel it will fizzle out.

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Couple of very distant rumbles of thunder heard at London Southbank.  Probably wouldn't have heard them if we didn't have the windows open at work!

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Friend of mine in Medway saying the thunder is the loudest he’s ever heard.

Lightning flashes here getting brighter but as far as I can make out it’s all been IC so far. Not complaining though just to be clear.

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Got thunder and rain in brixton (where I'm working today). Had a nice storm run parallel to my west yesterday evening as well constantly rumbling for about an hour. The past 7 days have been really good for storms.

 

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Edited by Windblade

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