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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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Saw a few lightning strikes towards the Buxton direction with a few low-rumbles but past 9pm it all died out before it reached the Pennines. I could complain but at least i've seen something and the weather was clear enough yesterday to have seen the thunderheads and anvils over the Midlands. 

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17 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

 I could complain but at least i've seen something and the weather was clear enough yesterday to have seen the thunderheads and anvils over the Midlands. 

I will complain.

Pants.

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4 hours ago, Swansonson69 said:

Let's face it, when are the South and west never at risk and when do they never get storms in the storm season. 

It's so frustrating because we used to get loads of storms but it's been like 6-7 years since we've actually had a storm at all. 

What percentage would you say the risk is for the east Midlands. 

Well let’s put that to bed. Plymouth had no storms from October 2008 until last 27th May 2017. Yes we’ve been lucky again with two storms on Saturday but you’ve a while to go to match our bad luck run! 

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Away from the S, today looks quite sparse in terms of storm coverage despite high CAPE values for larger parts of S/C/W UK

Netweather GFS Image

Precipitation EURO4 Mo 28.05.2018 18 GMT

As it stands, later on in the week looks more interesting for more of the UK...

 

Edited by CreweCold

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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I will complain.

Pants.

😀

I am baffled. I just don't get why it is such a struggle here to get anything thunder wise. 

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Morning all, it was another awesome evening in MK yesterday. Cumulus towers bubbling up rapidly in every direction, one of the biggest anvils I've ever seen to the east (5th image) and then that absolute cracker of a storm a little later, which initially looked like a near miss! Did get some lightning shots this morning but barely any from this one sadly. Strikes every few seconds but had terrible luck with the timing of my camera's shutter and finding the right place to face it towards it. Still, the skies alone were spectacular.

Has there been confirmation of any tornado-related activity from yesterday evening yet? Me and a couple of other people spotted what looked like a weak funnel in the haze a few miles south of MK in the early part of the evening, in the first image. Could have been a skud but certainly did stand out despite the haze and was there for a couple of minutes before fizzling out. 

 

P2460517s.thumb.jpg.ebebff5668959709175b0effc328ac30.jpgP2460535s.thumb.jpg.7273c9d924d1b149dded15d5d8bd2322.jpgP2460543s.thumb.jpg.693d28ae409de8cbc915eea624997c0e.jpgP2460565s.thumb.jpg.3029c72c6c229dd7aedea67438498b1e.jpgP2460610s.thumb.jpg.a92fc111ae591f2daab427e795782f00.jpgP2460616s.thumb.jpg.d7477c01eed661dee50f73a9b54d8d56.jpg

Edited by Pursuer of Storms

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1 hour ago, Pursuer of Storms said:

Morning all, it was another awesome evening in MK yesterday. Cumulus towers bubbling up rapidly in every direction, one of the biggest anvils I've ever seen to the east (5th image) and then that absolute cracker of a storm a little later, which initially looked like a near miss! Did get some lightning shots this morning but barely any from this one sadly. Strikes every few seconds but had terrible luck with the timing of my camera's shutter and finding the right place to face it towards it. Still, the skies alone were spectacular.

Has there been confirmation of any tornado-related activity from yesterday evening yet? Me and a couple of other people spotted what looked like a weak funnel in the haze a few miles south of MK in the early part of the evening, in the first image. Could have been a skud but certainly did stand out despite the haze and was there for a couple of minutes before fizzling out. 

 

P2460517s.thumb.jpg.ebebff5668959709175b0effc328ac30.jpgP2460535s.thumb.jpg.7273c9d924d1b149dded15d5d8bd2322.jpgP2460543s.thumb.jpg.693d28ae409de8cbc915eea624997c0e.jpgP2460565s.thumb.jpg.3029c72c6c229dd7aedea67438498b1e.jpgP2460610s.thumb.jpg.a92fc111ae591f2daab427e795782f00.jpgP2460616s.thumb.jpg.d7477c01eed661dee50f73a9b54d8d56.jpg

Your storm could be see clearly on the South coast last night.

Just as it was getting dusky the lightning in the cloud tops darting about was quite a sight down here near Brighton.

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38 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Your storm could be see clearly on the South coast last night.

Just as it was getting dusky the lightning in the cloud tops darting about was quite a sight down here near Brighton.

Yeah, seen loads of pictures from other parts of the country. I'm gutted I didn't just try and capture the lightning from home to begin with. Ah well, more on the way today apparently so I'm hoping for another chance. It's not often a storm like that bubbles up right over MK. It was amazing how suddenly the lightning started to pick up pace. 

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 Today’s Met warning just updated  specifically to extend it into Merseyside. Trying to feel excited but struggling after the last weekend’s epic fail in every way. 

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Looks like inland from Bournemouth could be a good spot to see slow moving high perceptible storms from lunchtime onwards. Could be some real slow moving ones around today.

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13 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Today’s Met warning just updated  specifically to extend it into Merseyside. Trying to feel excited but struggling after the last weekend’s epic fail in every way. 

Not sure why those warnings have been extended that far north, almost 0% chance of nothing further north than Brum, maybe only 10-20% chance between the M4 and Brum, activity looks almost confined south of M4.

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I need some convincing that storms are going to be anything like as widespread as yesterday. With the large cloud cover inhibiting temperatures over the majority of England, convergence zones also look limited, judging by the current windflow chart. 

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Very sunny here and 20.6°C. 

Edited by Chris.R

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9 hours ago, Ricepilot said:

Was cutting the hedge this evening when I caught the storm over Aylesbury on the horizon. Rather unexpected chance to try something new and went for a timelapse. Light wasn't on my side but it came out ok given that I was filming from Mid Sussex (some 60+ miles away)

Must have been pretty epic underneath that lot!

Link to the video here.
 

 

You can even see one of the new updrafts shooting up, taking the storm south, very well done.

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38 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Today’s Met warning just updated  specifically to extend it into Merseyside. Trying to feel excited but struggling after the last weekend’s epic fail in every way. 

That'l take into account the enhanced moisture levels up there following the return of the Liverpool fans.

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3 minutes ago, matty40s said:

That'l take into account the enhanced moisture levels up there following the return of the Liverpool fans.

 Made my weekend twice as worse than it was. 

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Already 24.8°C here. Could be a belter!

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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Already 24.8°C here. Could be a belter!

Keep clocking up them sunshine hours! What a fantastic May we have had, bar a few days,  long may it continue! The nice weather that is, not May obviously 😂

Similar here in Christchurch, small chance of a storm today according to Google weather, so I might pop out if anything crops up.

 

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Its already 24/18C so already way warmer than yesterday. Just need a time sea breeze to get the CZ going.

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21. 1°c here, it's humid. 

Have fun everyone. I'm not going to bother with today as there's no chance for storms up here today or tomorrow. 

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PROG for Post Lunch -

PPVE89_EGRR_1200.png

The significant weather chart. Looks like majority of the warning area will have occasional cells up to FL370.  The TROPO is up to FL400

SWC

 

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39 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Already 24.8°C here. Could be a belter!

Yup.25c now on the Sussex coast.

Clear blue skies and rocketing humidity.

In past years I have always had a moan about being in the wrong place for storms at given times.

That theory busted dramatically on Saturday night as work had me in SE London.

Brighton was one of the only areas in the SE that was a total bust storm wise.

Back by the sea today so I'm hoping that this deserving part of the SE gets paid in full!

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9 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Yup.25c now on the Sussex coast.

Clear blue skies and rocketing humidity.

In past years I have always had a moan about being in the wrong place for storms at given times.

That theory busted dramatically on Saturday night as work had me in SE London.

Brighton was one of the only areas in the SE that was a total bust storm wise.

Back by the sea today so I'm hoping that this deserving part of the SE gets paid in full!

Amazing temperatures on the South coast given its only 11am, if some areas stay away from the storms and have unbroken sunshine, how high will the mercury climb?

Interesting to see what transpires today, I expect storms to develop suddenly, like they did in Northampton later on this afternoon. The South coast is the best spot but suffolk and Wales may also get in the act too, especially given the placement of the trough on the fax chart Robbie linked.

Into tonight/tomorrow, it'll be worth keeping an eye out on storms coming out of France and into the channel. The far SE looks best placed for this - and for the storms tomorrow.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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