Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Supacell

Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

Recommended Posts

I'm on Bournemouth's West Cliff and there's loooaaads more lightning out in the Channel than is being picked up by the lightning apps. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 27 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 28 May 2018

ISSUED 21:17 UTC Sat 26 May 2018

ISSUED BY: null

Similar to Saturday, plume situations are extremely complex and the detail can (and probably will) change - so it is best to adopt a broad-brush approach and highlight trends rather than specifics, while acknowledge even some areas in a SLGT or MDT may remain lightning-free.

 
It is likely elevated thunderstorms will still be ongoing in various places at the beginning of this forecast period - especially northern England, perhaps East Anglia, and somewhat of a signal for another cluster to move into the Devon/Dorset area, tracking NW over S Wales during Sunday morning. 
 
In the wake of early convection, strong surface heating of the warm, moist low-level airmass (dewpoints 17-19C) should yield up to 1,500 J/kg CAPE. Much of this atmosphere will be capped, and there is always the risk of sporadic areas of elevated convection to develop which may also serve to inhibit surface-based convection. Nonetheless, if sufficient insolation can develop, combined with surface troughing/marked low-level wind convergence then a few scattered thunderstorms may evolve along a NW-SE line from N Wales through the Midlands towards London (and perhaps beyond into SE England, though this less-clear given the potential for elevated thunderstorms to drift in here).
Shear is rather weak, and so convection may struggle to become organised and could collapse after a relatively short time (less than an hour per individual thunderstorm), but given the magnitude of instability available, hail up to 2.0cm is possible along with flash flooding given PWAT 35-40mm.
 
Thunderstorms may continue across parts of the Midlands / East Anglia / SE England through Sunday night
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The cell over the channel, South of Poole is letting out strikes every 3 or 4 seconds, heading North west in believe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Can't see these yet as my large flat window is north facing, my have to wait a while! 

I'm lucky as I have a south facing balcony, albeit the view is partially obscured by some large buildings!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

look at that channel! looking good for the SE as well and later again across the south coast and SW probably missing us but happy to share the storms!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

discotheque time in the channel 😬

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can hear distant thunder, the cells I have highlighted have been gaining intensity( precipitation wise) maybe they’re fired into life because can’t imagine I cana hear thunder from the cell in Kent.

5BEA2E46-0AB0-43F8-94C8-104AE7573C43.jpeg

Edited by Justin123
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

another cell firing just north of the kent cell

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Frequent IC lightning at least 10 miles to my SSE, at least 10 strikes per minute, no thunder heard yet

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Forgot I had the Netweather lightning app and it's going off like artillery fire. Looking at the number of strikes approaching South East Wales I think that hunkering down might be the better option. Very humid here and clouds look ominous.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Flashes every 1-2 seconds now and can just about make out some low rumbling thunder!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not a lot for now but some nice flashes

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Yep I can see it from here. 

I've got my cam to continuously record 5 min video's with sound. It's bloody windy though, and it sound like a hurricane on the microphone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wish I was out chasing tonight, but have work at 6 am tomorrow typical.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, TropicThunder said:

Flashes every 1-2 seconds now and can just about make out some low rumbling thunder!

 

Set up in the uni library waiting to see something....

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Frequent lightning coming fron the southeast. A quick look at the radar shows a small cell over orpington heading this way with a larger on behind. As I'm typing this first distant rumbles heard.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

The interesting thing is blitzortung is showing lightning in the south east even though the reflectivity on the radar looks like hardly anything 

It’s an immense cell, John! Was flashing every 1-2 seconds. Moving off now but I’m hoping the line behind it will come closer. Lots of awesome looking AcCas lit up in the moonlight. 

1 downside - got a whopping bite on my foot!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...