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Supacell

Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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4 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Well I've been reading the posts for some time now...and swotting up. 

You are in my neck of the woods so I take that as a good sign 😀. Will be out for a chase later when I have finished work.

In the meantime, keep up the great posts all - perfect aid for learning more 🤓

Yeah think I’ve found a good spot. Want to be much further south ideally though, for when the channel gets going...

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Hoping the clear skies we have in the Pennines remain throughout the night, unlikely, but more interesting than being in the storms is being in a clear-patch of sky and watching the anvil heads lighting up. I'm optimistic we'll see something here but keeping in mind that it's down to RADAR watching from here on.

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49 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

What’s a TAF?

a truncated welshman I think

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This really is a loaded gun situation isn’t it

Enough of an inversion to keep things held down but a huge amount of insolation to keep piping that energy into the system.

I really do expect we will see something rather significant this evening and overnight 😃😃😃

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1 hour ago, Lauren said:

What hotel are you at? Love a room with a view!

@Lauren it’s the Premier Inn Heathrow Terminal 4 :)

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Setup looks very promising for tonight but I've been here before only to be disappointed. I can't help getting a little excited though. Was out very late last night so staying put tonight and hoping storms come to me. Incredibly hot and humid here. Feels like there's loads of energy just waiting to be released. Will be watching the radar tonight with interest and hoping that this time we actually get a decent night time storm. Good luck everyone.😀

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Why have Estofex not put out a forecast today at all? I was sure they still do them over the weekends

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1 minute ago, The East has Ceased said:

Why have Estofex not put out a forecast today at all? I was sure they still do them over the weekends

Someone mentioned potential staffing issues . There’s definitely something up

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Is the wind supposed to drop later? If not, I would have thought these storms would be racing along, making chasing very difficult.

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3 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Is the wind supposed to drop later? If not, I would have thought these storms would be racing along, making chasing very difficult.

I think it should die down to approx 15km/h but I don’t know if that’s still fast or not 🤔 

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Skies are quite hazy just SW of Oxford and it is feeling much more humid than back at home. I will be viewing the 12z hi res outputs for the latest thoughts and then be radar watching for the evening.

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I noticed this bit of text earlier:

"Note: bifurcating flow tends to leave a gap between two main clusters of thunderstorms"
http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-05-26

That will be here then 🤣
Hopefully not, but been there a few times in recent years.

A fair bit of mid level cloud recently, including some Ac Cas, starting to clear more now. No sign of anything to my SE on satellite but it's early, wasn't meant to really get going until this evening.

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Is that large blob off Northwestern France heading for Southern Ireland I wonder? Looks impressive on sat

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Staying at my parents in Weymouth. Off out for dinner in a bit then ready for (hopefully) a decent show out over Portland later on x

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54 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Hello fellow Belper-ite, what on earth takes you so far away from home? 😁

 

I am a little bit behind you, currently near Oxford weighing up the options.

I find the Derbyshire climate at this time of year... Specifically this evening... Disagreeable :D

Arrived in Sailsbury, just going to find a good vantage point and wait and see. Gl mate 🤞

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12z arome is not that great, apart from the far SW...reluctant to fire many storms elsewhere overnight....lets hope it's wrong

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3 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

12z arome is not that great, apart from the far SW...reluctant to fire many storms elsewhere overnight....lets hope it's wrong

Yea that is what I was thinking but I guess it always comes down to now-casting in these set ups. Fingers crossed. Does have another batch of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon further to the NE.

Edited by Chris K

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Look at this...signs of instability appearing over the Kent coastline. 

3BE44FD9-3F7B-4741-8936-F1EB018AC601.jpeg

447FC678-CF47-4497-9E19-58BBD82CC322.jpeg

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From a completely clear afternoon around here, cloud has suddenly started to bubble up.

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Wont be long now.

Activity starting in the SW.

 

image.thumb.png.44dbfef1061ecde8c668631055064fa3.png

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It look's like the cap is still in place here. Cu bubbling up, but flattening out quick quickly.

Here's the SR rain totals. Not to be taken at face value, obviously.

viewimage.thumb.png.34a8a58004b680f212314b6056010676.png

Edited by Mapantz

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I wonder if anyone has called it a bust yet lol. 

The cap can't be far off breaking now. 

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