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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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Could anyone help. I live in Wendover  near Aylesbury and have an issue with a family member and storms.

I've been trying to fathom out our chances of a storm here but each and every weather site says different.

Could anyone help to read between the lines if we are in the firing line at all.

I appreciate the complexity but any help would be much appreciated.

Thank you  

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4 minutes ago, Sun & Tanned said:

Could anyone help. I live in Wendover  near Aylesbury and have an issue with a family member and storms.

I've been trying to fathom out our chances of a storm here but each and every weather site says different.

Could anyone help to read between the lines if we are in the firing line at all.

I appreciate the complexity but any help would be much appreciated.

Thank you  

Hi,

don't know anyone can really give you the clarity you need as this particular scenario is difficult to pin point.

As you are slightly further north I think any storms you get will be less intense as those on the southern coasts, but there will still be (potentially) a lot of lightning and it won’t all be intra-cloud (so if your family member is worried about the lightning then it’s worth knowing there is a very good chance of nearby forked lightning)

I used to be scared of the sound of thunder and it was that which I feared most from storms. Storms tonight could well be frequent and loud in your area (some shotgun thunder) - we just don’t really know yet!

Keep an eye on blitzortung or lightningmaps and you can monitor the speed, relative intensity and track of storms in and around your area.

hope this helps?

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28 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Thanks Harry. I've got that but what exactly is it I'm looking for that says storms?

I’m just looking at precipitation. When I looked earlier for tomorrow evening, it shows intense precipitation in localised bursts across the SE (dark blue/pink colours). Given the highly unstable environment expected at that time then this will almost certainly be thundery (if it happens).

One thing is for sure - the sun is breaking through here and it is very warm and humid. Main pulse of humidity isn’t even expected here until later this evening. 

I will be down on the Kent coast this weekend though for a family event and I suspect staying put would give me a better chance of storms. We shall see though.

Edited by Harry

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23 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Hi,

don't know anyone can really give you the clarity you need as this particular scenario is difficult to pin point.

As you are slightly further north I think any storms you get will be less intense as those on the southern coasts, but there will still be (potentially) a lot of lightning and it won’t all be intra-cloud (so if your family member is worried about the lightning then it’s worth knowing there is a very good chance of nearby forked lightning)

I used to be scared of the sound of thunder and it was that which I feared most from storms. Storms tonight could well be frequent and loud in your area (some shotgun thunder) - we just don’t really know yet!

Keep an eye on blitzortung or lightningmaps and you can monitor the speed, relative intensity and track of storms in and around your area.

hope this helps?

Thank you so much for your help.

I'll keep an eye on the maps. 

Good luck yourself 

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An indication of conditions to come over the next few days in the south and east with some sunshine, Shorham up to 21c with 17c DP already, a huge amount of moisture to tap into!!

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20 minutes ago, Harry said:

I’m just looking at precipitation. When I looked earlier for tomorrow evening, it shows intense precipitation in localised bursts across the SE (dark blue/pink colours). Given the highly unstable environment expected at that time then this will almost certainly be thundery (if it happens).

One thing is for sure - the sun is breaking through here and it is very warm and humid. Main pulse of humidity isn’t even expected here until later this evening. 

I will be down on the Kent coast this weekend though for a family event and I suspect staying put would give me a better chance of storms. We shall see though.

Ah I see. Thanks!

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Thinking I’ll be too far east for anything today. Maybe something tonight but tomorrow afternoon/evening looks like the sweet spot for here. I’m excited but quite prepared to be disappointed...

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 Looking much better for me now during the next few days. Good that everything is adjusting North. Some very good MUCAPE showing every night from tonight. Good SBCAPE every day as well except Monday which  is looking a bit  dodgy.  

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1 hour ago, Lauren said:

Thanks Harry. I've got that but what exactly is it I'm looking for that says storms?

I personally look at a few things.

Storms are generally caused by converging different masses of air. (Ie, hot air hitting cold air) , This difference creates the condensation, convection etc needed for larger clouds, storms and in extreme cases tornadoes etc.

There is a good guide here about UK storms: 

 

 

That said, Here is what I look for.

Sea level pressure, Gives a good indicator of air masses, Their direction and where you sit between them.

airpressure.png

This shows the UK being suck between pressure systems.. So we have movement.. Air is moving about.. Its not like we are stuck dead under a high pressure system.

I also look at wind directions.

ukwind.png

These can show where air is "converging" and likely a good place where storms may be.

ukprec.png

Precip charts are obviously a good chart to show where rain and intensity may be... Its  a bit of a cheat, but shows it none the less.

ukcapeli.png

Cape and Lifted index is also a good one to look at.

These show how much potential energy is about for a storm to use and the lifting values along with it.

Strong cape values and low lifted values are good indicators. Lack of these doesnt mean no storms but with it can mean bigger and more likely storms.

 

The above 3 charts all show the convergence line, the PPN and cape values in the same place roughly. This is a good sign for say 09:00 tomorrow morning that the south of the UK have some big storms.

 

There are other charts can help bolster out the detail but this is a good indication.

There is also a storm risk chart that is useful for confirming your thoughts.

ukstormrisk.png

 

-----------

 

This afternoon does indeed look good for the south.

ukcapeli.png

Edited by Lynxus

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Thank you. I normally look at CAPE and LI but really not sure how to interpret the others. I'll take a look :)

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Sun's poking out here.

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This is where I am in SE London/NW Kent.

Temperature starting to ramp and as I’ve alluded to before it’s humid feeling too.

72D85C8D-4B35-49C4-AF62-4847A7FA965D.jpeg

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A bit of cloud where I am in the  east midlands but the sun has been shining most of the morning. I'm not very hopeful of storms in my area though. 

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It is important to note that this evening's set up will probably see rapid elevated storm formation near/just off the South Coast then quickly intensifying over land.

So if the radar is looking inactive do not be despondent, the plume will interact rapidly when it arrives.

Similar to the Saturday evening last month and Friday night/Saturday morning this weekend last year as well as several other dates in recent years that slip my mind.

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Still no forecast released from Estofex yet hopefully they will soon as they are normally very good!

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21 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

It is important to note that this evening's set up will probably see rapid elevated storm formation near/just off the South Coast then quickly intensifying over land.

So if the radar is looking inactive do not be despondent, the plume will interact rapidly when it arrives.

Similar to the Saturday evening last month and Friday night/Saturday morning this weekend last year as well as several other dates in recent years that slip my mind.

Tell me about it, I've been very fortunate the last few years! It almost feels like deja vu, it definitely feels like we have turned a corner in the last 5 years! Before then I had to watch storms move up from France, then make a sharp right hand turn towards Holland! This might sound like I'm exaggerating, but honestly that's what happened time and time again.

I'm gonna have to forget watching the champions league final and get out with the camera 😁

 

Edited by Christchurch storm nut

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very disappointing here so far today, very cloudy skies, a chilly East north/east wind, no fuel for any storm fire although the bbc online forecast says storms are due here later this afternoon

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52 minutes ago, Harry said:

This is where I am in SE London/NW Kent.

Temperature starting to ramp and as I’ve alluded to before it’s humid feeling too.

72D85C8D-4B35-49C4-AF62-4847A7FA965D.jpeg

Off topic, but that is beautiful

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It does feel a bit humid in the east Midlands. The sun is somewhat shining and the cloud thinning away. What's the chance of storms on the east Midlands?

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Definitely feels juicy when the sun comes out.

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36 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

It is important to note that this evening's set up will probably see rapid elevated storm formation near/just off the South Coast then quickly intensifying over land.

So if the radar is looking inactive do not be despondent, the plume will interact rapidly when it arrives.

Similar to the Saturday evening last month and Friday night/Saturday morning this weekend last year as well as several other dates in recent years that slip my mind.

There will be people calling bust at 7:30pm, about 15 mins before the first strikes appear just south of the Solent - mark my words... 😉

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Here we have sun ac cas mist, temp 21.6 humidity 76% which has dropped a little from earlier when the mist was more evident.

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3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

There will be people calling bust at 7:30pm, about 15 mins before the first strikes appear just south of the Solent - mark my words... 😉

I'm surprised no ones called it yet.....lolol

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