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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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sharp showers firing over east anglia, pretty much bang on as forecasted.......watching these develop with interest

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 NW England Met text forecast is uninspiring to say the least. If I miss out on all of this I will be very unhappy. Models still showing a lot of CAPE over the weekend but perhaps Met think it will all be capped. 

Last good night storm was in 2006 here. 

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Extended skew-t's are showing inversions here over the weekend. However, it also show's them being eroded late afternoon/early evening.

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Extended skew-t's are showing inversions here over the weekend. However, it also show's them being eroded late afternoon/early evening.

Load that gun 💣

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Extended skew-t's are showing inversions here over the weekend. However, it also show's them being eroded late afternoon/early evening.

What does that mean for us laymen?

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Sferic south of Kings Lynn.

oh!,it's popping off:D

Edited by Allseasons-si

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3 minutes ago, Lauren said:

What does that mean for us laymen?

Basically, a lid being in place to prevent free convection. A build up of convective inhibition will occur, before it is weakened by incoming troughs. Hopefully, that will be a good enough trigger for it all.

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9 minutes ago, Lauren said:

What does that mean for us laymen?

There will be a cap in place during the day - but provided it can be eroded or broken down (by forcings apparently tomo) then the potential of the energy locked in below it can be released in the form of epic hair-singing thunderstorms

 

edit: he beat me to it 😄

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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I see, so basically we want a cap to build up energy and then we want it to blow off? 

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Look on Sat 24...all those storms are moving NE...lol despite the wind coming in from the SE...seriously you can't buy a storm here...the last really thunder year here was 2014...need a storm fix...

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15 minutes ago, Lauren said:

I see, so basically we want a cap to build up energy and then we want it to blow off? 

Ideally - this would allow for the sudden release of the largest amounts of energy.

It’s these setups that have provided the best storms in the past

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5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Ideally - this would allow for the sudden release of the largest amounts of energy.

It’s these setups that have provided the best storms in the past

all depends what layer the inversion is in......my concern is that elevated imports decaying as they reach the south coast will scupper SB (surface based) storms over southern england tomorrow onwards...you can have all the energy in the world but without insolation there will be little or no convection...On the plus side though, there may be little mid-level leftover clag to inhibit SB convection..........................and if the timing is right (tomorrow night possibly) we could see some stonking elevated storms over some southern districts......The uncertainty makes it more exciting radar watching, that's for sure 😊

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Just now, ajpoolshark said:

all depends what layer the inversion is in......my concern is that elevated imports decaying as they reach the south coast will scupper SB (surface based) storms over southern england tomorrow onwards...you can have all the energy in the world but without insolation there will be little or no convection...On the plus side though, there may be little mid-level leftover clag to inhibit SB convection..........................and if the timing is right (tomorrow night possibly) we could see some stonking elevated storms over some southern districts......The uncertainty makes it more exciting radar watching, that's for sure 😊

I’d happily swap pre-storm radar excitement for certaincy any day 😉

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2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I’d happily swap pre-storm radar excitement for certaincy any day 😉

amen to that

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I seem to remember the NetWx SR not showing any precip on the models last year - May 27th. And a  nice arc of storms started developing down to the Southwest. This time, the NetWx IS showing something, and it is remarkable how similar it is to last year.

radar_01300.825164905822934.thumb.png.309ce397e155b85a882617c2bb0f8680.png

497376419_viewimage(1).thumb.png.0cd3d80182fbed928892b45aec4a63f2.png

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5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I seem to remember the NetWx SR not showing any precip on the models last year - May 27th. And a  nice arc of storms started developing down to the Southwest. This time, the NetWx IS showing something, and it is remarkable how similar it is to last year.

radar_01300.825164905822934.thumb.png.309ce397e155b85a882617c2bb0f8680.png

 

 

can you do me a favour and post MLcape & DLS charts for the same period please mate?

I've had a look at the corresponding GFS charts and they're a bit underwhelming for anything organised....little shear to speak of on GFS which suggests storms falling apart quickly, with spotty elevated convection

Edited by ajpoolshark

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That storm on the 27th last year was amazing down in the SW the lightning was one of the most frequent I have ever seen fingers crossed for more excitement on almost the exact date!

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This is the NMM for Sunday night - hummana hummana. Difficulty this weekend and all next week is the storm triggers...echo earlier observations re the FAX charts which are mouth watering. Lots of troughs interacting with high instability. Whether these troughs will occur or whether they’ll occur in those areas is the big question. Model guidance isn’t going to help us much over the coming days in my view.

92575C8C-F76F-4073-AB88-AC7D80DDAE00.png

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17th July last year was best storm I've seen in years.

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23 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Anyone else having intermittent problems with Blitzortung?

Yes it seems to freeze for about 15 mins and then all of a sudden all the stikes that were missed appear at once

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6 minutes ago, Jules777 said:

Yes it seems to freeze for about 15 mins and then all of a sudden all the stikes that were missed appear at once

Yup same thing

started using lightningmaps instead, but I prefer bztung when it works

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44 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

That storm on the 27th last year was amazing down in the SW the lightning was one of the most frequent I have ever seen fingers crossed for more excitement on almost the exact date!

idk why I get the feeling we could be seeing something similar this time round, as last time I don't think anyone expected it to be so severe 

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I have to admit to be a little excited about the prospects this coming weekend with several rounds of thunderstorms. A risk some could get as far north as here on Sunday night into Monday but I will be out and about this weekend I expect so will go to them if they don't come to me.

A repeat of 27th May last year would be fantastic. I chose not to chase and wait for storms to come here on that occasion, and went on to regret that decision.

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